消失吧！現(xiàn)金？

消失吧！現(xiàn)金？

隨著電子金融的興起，我們使用現(xiàn)金的場合越來越少。德意志銀行的聯(lián)合首席執(zhí)行官約翰·克賴恩(John Cryan)不是慣于夸張之人。然而，不久前，他的一番有關(guān)貨幣的話卻可能讓普通人感到驚訝。

測試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識：

hyperbole 夸張法[ha?'p??b?l?]

panel 座談小組['p?n(?)l]

uneven 不均勻的；[數(shù)] 奇數(shù)的[?n'i?v(?)n]

blockchain 區(qū)塊鏈(是比特幣的一個重要概念)

cyber 網(wǎng)絡(luò)的，計算機(jī)的['sa?b?]

curtail 剪短；剝奪…特權(quán)等[k??'te?l]

閱讀即將開始，建議您計算一下閱讀整篇文章所用時間，并對照我們在文章最后給出的參考值來估算您的閱讀速度。

The benefits of scrapping cash（641words）

By Gillian Tett

* * *

John Cryan, co-head of Deutsche Bank, is not a man given to hyperbole. A couple of weeks ago, however, he made a comment about money that might make ordinary mortals blink.

Speaking on a financial technology panel at Davos, he cheerfully predicted that in a decade’s time cash probably won’t exist. Yes, you read that right: all those grubby greenbacks and tattered euro bills in your wallet are heading for the dustbin of history. “There is no need for it,” Mr Cryan declared. “It is terribly inefficient and expensive.” Can we believe him? Not if you look at the data.

It is true that in recent decades, as electronic finance has taken hold, our use of cash has been declining. According to the Bank for International Settlements, outstanding cash in circulation was 7.9 per cent of gross domestic product in the largest 19 economies in 2014, the most recent available data; in 2010 it was 8.4 per cent.

But what is striking is not the fact that cash use has declined but how slow — and uneven — this trend has been. Indeed, if you look at the total volume of cash in circulation, rather than cash as a percentage of GDP, Sweden is the only leading western economy where it has recently declined. Elsewhere it has been rising. In Japan, Switzerland, the eurozone and the UK, the ratio of cash to GDP has actually grown.

In Japan today cash in circulation is more than 20 per cent of GDP, while in Switzerland the ratio is above 10 per cent. In the UK, this ratio is 3.7 per cent, higher than in 2010. Those smartphone bank accounts and innovations in blockchain technology might look flashy but they have not killed off paper money. Yet.

Why? It is partly down to consumer habit, coupled with a popular mistrust of banks in countries such as Japan that have suffered financial busts. Another factor is that millions of poor households, even in America, still do not use banks. Criminals, terrorists and tax-evaders also tend to use cash for their operations, particularly large denomination bills.

But the really interesting thing is what happens in the next few years. For there are at least three situations bubbling that could yet change this dynamic and prove Mr Cryan at least partly right.

First, and most obviously, digital and cyber finance is spreading rapidly. Second, some governments are belatedly realising that reduced use of cash is helpful in terms of security and fighting crime. After all, drug dealers and Islamist militants generally do not use bank accounts or mobile payments. So one way to cut terrorism and crime might be to withdraw the big denomination bills they prefer. The European Commission is already pondering this: it announced this week that it is looking at whether to curtail the use of €500 notes. This seems a sensible step, one that other governments should consider.

The third factor that could influence cash usage in the next few years is, again, the stance of central banks themselves. As rates turn negative, central bankers in places such as Switzerland are scrambling to prevent consumers dashing into cash as this not only makes financial transactions less efficient but also makes monetary policy less effective. After all, if people hold physical cash — which, unlike a bank account, is not directly affected by negative rates — central bankers have less control.

It may take longer than a decade for Mr Cryan’s prediction to come to pass; but it would be dangerous to discount it. For better or worse, the nature of money is changing. And who knows? If this revolution helps curtail tax evasion and terrorist finance — and makes our lives more convenient along the way, too — it might turn out to be one of the better developments to have emerged from the finance industry in recent years.

請根據(jù)你所讀到的文章內(nèi)容，完成以下自測題目：

1. When cash probably won’t exist just as John Cryan predicted?

a. ten years later

b. after Twenty Years

c. five years later

d. not mentioned

2. Which country’s volume of cash in circulation has declined recently?

a. Switzerland

b. Japan

c. Sweden

d. UK

3. What kind of payment methods do terrorists and tax-evaders prefer?

a. mobile payments

b. large denomination bills

c. instructions for bank transfer

d. postal remittance

4. Which one is not mentioned as the factor to threat the use of cash?

a. the use of €500 notes was curtailed

b. development of digital and cyber finance

c. the measure of fighting crime

d. the stance of central banks

[1] 答案a. ten years later

解釋：John輕快地預(yù)測道，10年后現(xiàn)金很可能將不存在。

[2] 答案c. Sweden

解釋：瑞典是近年流通現(xiàn)金總量減少的唯一主要西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體。其他國家的流通現(xiàn)金一直在增加。在日本、瑞士、歐元區(qū)和英國，現(xiàn)金與GDP的比率實際上有所增加。

[3] 答案b. large denomination bills

解釋：犯罪分子、恐怖分子和逃稅者傾向于使用現(xiàn)金，尤其是大面額鈔票。

[4] 答案a. the use of €500 notes was curtailed

解釋：歐盟委員會正在研究是否減少500歐元紙幣的使用，是第二個原因?qū)е碌慕Y(jié)果。