金融時報:百歲老人的投資智慧

百歲老人的投資智慧

華爾街的百歲老人經歷過大風大浪,他們有什么秘訣要向我們分享呢？

On Wall Street: Age old wisdom (712 words)

By Spencer Jakab

In uncertain times, any American money manager worth his salt understands that potential clients are comforted by a long-term track-record and patrician solidity. Consider a successful 1990 TV commercial showing grainy black and white footage of Dean Witter sagely advising money managers at his eponymous brokerage firm, presumably around the time of its founding in 1924, to find each client’s comfort level.

The man was an actor, the footage and the crackling audio fake and Dean Witter already a large, impersonal firm owned by retailer Sears. The image of having seen decades of bull and bear markets struck a chord with investors though.

Such perspective is suddenly back in vogue on Wall Street, but how many active fund managers can speak from personal experience when comparing recent events to historic downturns like 1987, much less 1974? Even those few who can mostly survived by sticking with the panicked herd.

No phony newsreel footage is necessary to convey the wisdom of two living legends who thrived through the granddaddy of them all, the Great Crash of 1929. Both Irving Kahn, the oldest active money manager on Wall Street at 103, and 106 year-old Roy Neuberger, saw the recent shakeout in global markets as just another opportunity to buy good companies cheaply while competitors a third their age rushed for the exits.

Irving Kahn in his Madison Avenue office

Kahn says he ignores market gyrations and typically holds stocks for at least three years, sometimes as much as 15, until value is realised. His firm, Kahn Brothers, compares its philosophy to tending an orchard with different types of fruit, some of which ripen more slowly than others. If that sounds suspiciously like the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, it is no accident – Kahn was Graham’s first teaching assistant and helped him with his 1934 classic Security Analysis. Like Graham, Kahn seeks out unloved and obscure stocks, eschewing highfliers.

“Never buy popular stocks, except maybe in a depression,” he warns.

Neuberger, and the firm he founded, Neuberger Berman, hew to similar principles. He retired at age 99 and is now too frail to be interviewed. His 68-year-old protégé Marvin Schwartz, who joined the firm in 1961, consults with him regularly though and credits Neuberger with providing appropriate perspective in hard times such as these.

“In almost each and every instance, he advised us to buy in what would be a passing negative period,” says Schwartz.

Both men have benefited from healthy scepticism and extraordinary timing. Kahn’s first trade upon arriving on Wall Street in 1928 was to sell short 50 shares of red-hot Magma Copper. Informed that it was a bull market and that he would lose his money, he instead doubled it in the crash.

Roy Neuberger at home in NY

Similarly, Neuberger kicked off his career by shorting the hottest stock of the decade, Radio Corporation of America, in 1929. Predictions that almost everyone would one day own a radio proved true but failed to justify its bloated price.

Do such experiences better prepare you for future calamities? Kahn’s answer is a qualified yes.

“History mostly repeats itself, but it’s never exact.”

Neuberger wrote in his autobiography that living though 1929 helped him trounce competitors in 1987. He broke even during both crashes.

Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway hoping that the 79-year-old Oracle of Omaha will achieve longevity on par with Messrs Kahn and Neuberger have cause for cheer. Optimistic value-seekers have remarkable staying-power. Philip Carret and Philip Fisher, two of Buffett’s key influences aside from Graham and among the most successful investors of all-time, died at age 101 and 96, respectively. Another legendary investor, Sir John Templeton, remained active until his death last summer at age 95 and is credited with two of the great contrarian investing quotes: “Invest at the point of maximum pessimism” and “the four most dangerous words in investing are ‘it’s different this time.’”

Kahn minces no words about the advantage of being a centenarian.

“I think people my age are brighter than people your age. You don’t make the same mistakes and that by itself gives you an enormous edge. So how old are you?”

Er, 40 this month.

“You lack certainty in your convictions,” he sniffs.

請根據你所讀到的文章內容，完成以下自測題目：

1.What's the main purpose of this article?

A. Shed light on the origin of value investing

B. Sound alarm of a major market collapse

C. Explain why Warren Buffet lives so long

D. Share the wisdom of the really experienced investors

答案(1)

2.Kahn Brothers' investing philosophy can be categorized as?

A. Value investing

B. Insider trading

C. Day Trading

D. Gambling

答案(2)

3.What would Neuberger Berman most likely buy?

A. Twitter, the miniblog web site which is very popular among young people

B. ICBC, the biggest bank by market value

C. BYD, for the "green car" concept

D. None of the above

答案(3)

4.If history repeats itself like the old men said, which the following is mostly likely to happen?

A. Almost everybody has access to Internet, but those who invest in Internet companies lose their money.

B. Obama is shot dead in Dalas.

C. China becomes the super power over U.S.

D. Word War III started by Germany.

答案(4)

* * *

(1) 答案：D.Share the wisdom of the really experienced investors

解釋：check out the full text

(2) 答案：A.Value investing

解釋："His firm, Kahn Brothers, compares its philosophy to tending an orchard with different types of fruit, some of which ripen more slowly than others. If that sounds suspiciously like the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, it is no accident..."

(3) 答案：D.None of the above

解釋：“Never buy popular stocks, except maybe in a depression,” he warns. Neuberger, and the firm he founded, Neuberger Berman, hew to similar principles.

(4) 答案：A.Almost everybody has access to Internet, but those who invest in Internet companies lose their money.

解釋："His firm, Kahn Brothers, compares its philosophy to tending an orchard with different types of fruit, some of which ripen more slowly than others. If that sounds suspiciously like the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, it is no accident..."