游客激增的冰島：邊發(fā)財，邊發(fā)愁

03 游客激增的冰島：邊發(fā)財，邊發(fā)愁

面對蓬勃發(fā)展的旅游業(yè)和復(fù)蘇的經(jīng)濟，冰島人民卻喜憂參半。

冰島旅游近些年來成為熱門，觀鯨魚、泡溫泉、探秘藍冰洞、仰望北極光：這些聽起來就令人心馳神往。

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在經(jīng)歷了2008年的金融危機和“國家破產(chǎn)”后，冰島的經(jīng)濟正飛速走向恢復(fù)——這很大程度依托了蓬勃發(fā)展的旅游業(yè)。

然而，面對游客數(shù)的激增和旅游業(yè)帶來的興旺，冰島人卻未雨綢繆起來——

他們感到，這一切，都太像金融危機爆發(fā)前的景象了。

政府官員、經(jīng)濟學(xué)家、景區(qū)主管、酒店經(jīng)理，他們各執(zhí)一詞。如果你也想要去冰島，那么了解一下這個國家旅游業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀，或許會對這一趟旅行有新的啟發(fā)。

冰島著名景觀“蓋錫爾間隙噴泉”

The geyser spurts scalding hot water heavenwards to mass applause and “oohs” every few minutes.A little distance away — over a single-track bridge — visitors gasp at waterfalls “a bit like Niagara but without the hotels”, as one American describes it.

每隔幾分鐘，伴隨著人群的掌聲和驚呼，滾燙的泉水就會朝著天空噴涌而出。在不遠處，單行橋的另一邊，游客們屏息凝神地欣賞瀑布群。“有點像沒有旅館的尼亞加拉大瀑布”，一位美國游客如是形容。

注：在冰島，因為車輛較少，所以絕大多數(shù)橋梁只有一條路，后到的一方需要等到對面的車先行通過。

冰島作為全世界最炙手可熱的旅行目的地之一，蓋錫爾間歇噴泉（Geysir）和古福斯瀑布（the Gullfoss Falls，冰島語意為“黃金瀑布”）是吸引人們前來觀光的最有名的景觀之二。

Next year, it is forecast to receive 2m tourists, five times the number in 2010.

明年，冰島預(yù)計將要接待200萬游客——這一數(shù)字是2010年的5倍。

The hordes of visitors rescued Iceland's economy after its brush with financial disaster in 2008 when its three largest banks all but imploded.

在2008年遭遇金融災(zāi)難、其最大的三家銀行都幾近崩潰后，成群的游客挽救了冰島的經(jīng)濟。

2000年到2016年（預(yù)計）赴冰島游客數(shù)

But the rapid and largely unregulated rise of tourism is a reminder to many in Iceland of the mood before the financial crisis, raising questions of whether the island in the middle of the north Atlantic is heading for trouble again.

不過，這樣急劇且很大程度上無節(jié)制的游客增長，像是一個提醒，讓許多冰島人嗅到了金融危機前夕的氣氛。這讓他們懷疑：這座北大西洋中間的島國，是不是又大難臨頭了？

“Some kind of bust is coming.Reykjavik is getting much closer to how things felt just before the financial crisis.But there's nothing we can do about it,” says Snorri Valsson, manager of the Kvosin boutique hotel in Iceland's capital.

“某種蕭條正在靠近。雷克雅未克（冰島首都）越來越接近金融危機前的感覺，而我們又無能為力”，位于冰島首都雷克雅未克的Kvosin精品酒店的主管Snorri Valsson說。

Thorvaldur Gylfason, an Icelandic economist, says: “There are too many signs of it being like 2007 again.We have utterly failed to learn a lesson.”

冰島經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Thorvaldur Gylfason說：“很多兆頭都指示著，我們又回到了類似2007年的情況。我們完全沒有汲取教訓(xùn)?！?/p>

冰島擁有豐富的地?zé)豳Y源 游客在當(dāng)?shù)乇M情享受溫泉

明明是一切欣欣向榮，冰島旅游從業(yè)者和經(jīng)濟學(xué)家為何卻要杞人憂天呢？

讓冰島人擔(dān)心的，是經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的失調(diào)、道路等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的滯后，以及諸多潛在的不確定因素（比如火山爆發(fā)可能切斷這個島國的空運）。

There is little doubt that Iceland is booming.The island of 320,000 people is swelled by an average of 30,000 tourists each day of the year, who flock to Iceland to experience its natural wonders from hot springs to the Northern Lights.The ratio of tourists to inhabitants is among the highest in the world.

毫無疑問，冰島正在走向繁榮。這一年，平均每天有3萬人源源不斷地涌進這個只有32萬人口的島國，前來觀賞熱泉和北極光等自然奇觀。冰島的游客數(shù)比居民數(shù)這一比率，屬全世界最高。

“The industry has gone from being ‘the little brother' in the economy to becoming — by far — the country's largest and most dynamic export sector,” says Grimur Saemundsson, chief executive of Blue Lagoon, a popular tourist attraction.

“旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)在經(jīng)濟中的地位已經(jīng)從‘小兄弟'一躍變成目前這個國家最大的、同時也是最有活力的出口板塊”，旅游名勝“藍瀉湖”首席執(zhí)行官Grimur Saemundsson 這樣說。

Tourism now accounts for about a third of Iceland's exports and the foreign currency they bring in has proved vital for the country's attempts to lift its crisis-era capital controls.More than a third of jobs created in the past five years have come from tourism while almost a half of new cars were sold to rental companies, according to local lender Islandsbanki.

旅游業(yè)如今占據(jù)了冰島三分之一的出口額，它所帶來的外匯收入，對于該國放寬其危機時期的資本管制來說，起到了重要的作用。過去五年里產(chǎn)生的三分之一的崗位由觀光業(yè)帶來，同時，據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)刭J方艾蘭銀行數(shù)據(jù)，大約一半的新車被售賣給租車公司。

Bjarni Benediktsson, Iceland's finance minister, says it is good “we got another foot under our economy”.He admits there are challenges with tourism but “these are good things to deal with — they are in a way the difficulties of success”.

冰島財政部長Bjarni Benediktsson持樂觀態(tài)度：“我們有了支撐經(jīng)濟的另一條腿”。他承認旅游業(yè)面臨著一些挑戰(zhàn)，但是“這些待解決的是好事情，它們是成功路上需要解決的困難。”

不過，并不是所有人都這樣認為。

These challenges include everything from the poor quality roads and overburdened infrastructure to a lack of accommodation and simmering popular discontent over how tourism is being handled.

Bjarni Benediktsson口中的這些“挑戰(zhàn)”，其實包含了很多事情：從糟糕的公路質(zhì)量、負擔(dān)過重的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，到住宿的缺乏，及慢慢激化的、大眾關(guān)于如何控制旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展這一問題的不滿。

景區(qū)壓力

At Geysir and Gullfoss in central Iceland, dozens of buses and cars park at both attractions for free before disgorging tourists who pay no entrance fee.The roads across Iceland are under intense strain from hire cars and a tourist died just after Christmas in a head-on collision on a single-track bridge.

在冰島中部的蓋錫爾間歇噴泉和古福斯瀑布，免費地停著成群的巴士和汽車——它們等待著卸下免費參觀景點的游客。租用的汽車，讓橫貫冰島的公路承擔(dān)著緊張的壓力。就在圣誕節(jié)后不久，一名游客在單行橋上遭遇了一起迎頭相撞的事故，不幸去世。

管理寬松

Many both in and out of the industry criticise the government for lax regulation.There is no entry fee levied on tourists and the overnight hotel tax is both loosely collected and low at just IKr100 ($0.88) per night.Visitors have increased by at least 20 per cent in each of the past five years with a 37 per cent rise forecast for this year.

旅游行業(yè)內(nèi)外，都批評政府的監(jiān)管不嚴(yán)。在冰島，對游客不征收門票，過夜旅館稅的收繳既寬松又便宜，一晚不過100冰島克朗（合0.88美元）。過去五年間，冰島每年的游客增長率至少都有20%，預(yù)計今年這一數(shù)字為37%。

道路安全失去保障

“What are we sacrificing when we don't put a levy on tourists? The roads here are dangerous,” says Asta Helgadottir, an MP for the anti-establishment Pirate party, which tops polls ahead of elections this month.

“當(dāng)不向游客征稅，我們失去了什么？這里的道路極其危險”，Asta Helgadottir說道。她是反建制政黨“海盜黨”的議員，該黨派在本月將要進行的議會選舉的民調(diào)中領(lǐng)先。

Katrin Oddsdottir, a lawyer in Reykjavik, says: “It is the failure of the government.It's out of control.The attitude seems to be: why should we fix the roads for 2m people when there are just 320,000 of us?”

雷克雅未克的一名律師Katrin Oddsdottir說，“這是政府的失職。事態(tài)正在失去控制。當(dāng)局的態(tài)度似乎是，當(dāng)我們這里只有32萬冰島人，為什么要修供200萬人使用的道路呢？”

居住問題

Accommodation is also a problem.Cranes everywhere in Reykjavik attest to the surge in hotel construction but the increase in rooms still lags behind the growth in tourism.Airbnb rentals have taken up some of the slack with the number of properties available to rent on the short-term rental website more than doubling in 2015 in the capital to 2,700.

居住也是個問題。在雷克雅未克，到處都是起重機，投入到酒店建設(shè)的浪潮中。不過房間的增加仍然趕不上旅游業(yè)的增長。Airbnb民宿分擔(dān)了部分壓力——該網(wǎng)站上，在冰島首都雷克雅未克的短租房源在2015年數(shù)量翻了一倍還多，達到了2700處。

Worries abound over the social and economic effects of the boom among Reykjavik residents.“People are buying up whole buildings.It's just a far-fetched dream to be able to afford an apartment,” says Ms Helgadottir.

旅游業(yè)的爆發(fā)，讓在雷克雅未克居民中，彌漫起對社會和經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂。“建筑整棟地被買走，但事實上，（本地居民們）連一間公寓也買不起”，Helgadottir女士表示。

Icelanders fear the good times could come to an end in a number of ways: a volcanic eruption cuts off air traffic to Iceland; the island gets too expensive because of a strengthening krona; or growth becomes unsustainable.

冰島人害怕好日子將會走到盡頭：譬如火山的爆發(fā)切斷了冰島的空運；因為冰島克朗的走強，島上物價變得越來越貴；或者增長變得不可持續(xù)。

冰島克朗兌美元匯率變化

政府官員還是發(fā)表了相對樂觀的看法：

Mar Gudmundsson, central bank governor, says he is closely monitoring the risks, especially the exposure of banks to tourism, but so far he is not particularly worried.He adds: “This might at some point in the future create a need for an economic adjustment or recession, but it doesn't have to create a financial crisis.”

冰島央行行長Mar Gudmundsson說，他正密切監(jiān)視著這些風(fēng)險，尤其是銀行業(yè)對旅游業(yè)的風(fēng)險敞口。但是迄今為止他不怎么擔(dān)憂。他還說：“可能在將來的某一時刻需要一個經(jīng)濟調(diào)整，或者衰退，但是這不會引發(fā)金融危機?！?/p>

A big difference to the rise of the banks is that there are no “Viking raiders”, as the acquisitive businessmen who dominated pre-crash Iceland were known.Olof Yrr Atladottir, head of Iceland's tourist board, notes that many of the new businesses are small with just a few workers.Mr Gylfason believes the rise of tourism could reduce the influence of what he calls “the oligarchs” of Iceland's fishing industry.

那些為人所知的、在上一輪金融危機前控制著冰島的貪婪的商人（他們被稱為“維京掠奪者”），在此次冰島銀行業(yè)的崛起中并未出現(xiàn)。冰島旅游委員會會長Olof Yrr Atladottir指出，許多新的公司很小，只有幾個員工。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Gylfason相信，旅游業(yè)的增長將削弱他所謂的冰島捕魚業(yè)的“寡頭式”的地位。

But what the finance minister calls “Icelanders' hunter mentality” is kicking in as people in the tourism industry fear the worst.Mr Benediktsson says Iceland has long suffered from a boom and bust economy, common in countries that depend on natural resources such as fish.

但是冰島財政部長Bjarni Benediktsson稱，是“冰島人的獵人思維”讓旅游行業(yè)從業(yè)者們杞人憂天。Benediktsson先生說，冰島經(jīng)濟一直大起大落，這一點和其他的依靠自然資源（如漁業(yè)）的國家一樣。

冰島首都雷克雅未克附近的橋梁

Asked what he is doing to brace for the bust he so fears, Mr Valsson, the hotel manager, says: “Make money while we can.”

當(dāng)被問及如果擔(dān)心的經(jīng)濟凋敝真的來臨、將要做些什么來應(yīng)對時，酒店經(jīng)理Valsson說：“還是在能掙錢的時候掙錢吧?！?/p>

詞匯總結(jié)

geyser ['gi?z?; 'ga?-]

n.噴泉；[水文]間歇泉

scalding ['sk??ld??]

adj.滾燙的；尖刻的

The geyser spurts scalding hot water heavenwards to mass applause and “oohs” every few minutes.

每隔幾分鐘，伴隨著人群的掌聲和驚呼，滾燙的泉水就會朝著天空噴涌而出。

hordes of 成群的

The hordes of visitors rescued Iceland's economy after its brush with financial disaster in 2008 when its three largest banks all but imploded.

在2008年遭遇金融災(zāi)難、其最大的三家銀行都幾近崩潰后，成群的游客挽救了冰島的經(jīng)濟。

inhabitant [?n'h?b?t(?)nt]

n.居民；居住者

The ratio of tourists to inhabitants is among the highest in the world.

冰島的游客數(shù)比居民數(shù)這一比率，屬全世界最高。

disgorge [d?s'g??d?]

vt.吐出

At Geysir and Gullfoss in central Iceland, dozens of buses and cars park at both attractions for free before disgorging tourists who pay no entrance fee.

在冰島中部的蓋錫爾間歇噴泉和古福斯瀑布，免費地停著成群的巴士和汽車——它們等待著卸下免費參觀景點的游客。