演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:世界上最大的家譜

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聽(tīng)力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語(yǔ)文稿，供各位英語(yǔ)愛(ài)好者學(xué)習(xí)使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:世界上最大的家譜，希望你會(huì)喜歡！

【演講者及介紹】Yaniv Erlich

計(jì)算遺傳學(xué)家，著迷于DNA和數(shù)據(jù)之間的聯(lián)系。

【演講主題】我們?nèi)绾谓⑹澜缟献畲蟮募易V

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者 psjmz mz 校對(duì)者 YanyanHong

00:12

People use the internet for variousreasons. It turns out that one of the most popular categories of website issomething that people typically consume in private. It involves curiosity,non-insignificant levels of self-indulgence and is centered around recordingthe reproductive activities of other people.

人們因各種原因使用著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。一種最受歡迎的網(wǎng)站是人們常常私下瀏覽的東西。它涉及到好奇心，無(wú)關(guān)自我放縱程度，并以記錄他人的生殖記錄為中心。

00:36

(Laughter) Of course, I'm talking aboutgenealogy --

（笑聲）當(dāng)然，我討論的是家譜學(xué)——

00:39

(Laughter) the study of family history.

（笑聲）也就是對(duì)家庭歷史的研究。

00:43

When it comes to detailing family history,in every family, we have this person that is obsessed with genealogy. Let'scall him Uncle Bernie. Uncle Bernie is exactly the last person you want to sitnext to in Thanksgiving dinner, because he will bore you to death with peculiardetails about some ancient relatives. But as you know, there is a scientificside for everything, and we found that Uncle Bernie's stories have immensepotential for biomedical research.

當(dāng)說(shuō)到詳細(xì)的家族歷史，在每個(gè)家庭中，我們都有一個(gè)癡迷于家譜的人。我們姑且叫他伯尼叔叔吧。伯尼叔叔正是你在感恩節(jié)晚餐上，最不想坐在一起的人，因?yàn)樗麜?huì)用一些遠(yuǎn)古親戚的奇特細(xì)節(jié)把你煩死。但正如你所知，任何事物都有科學(xué)的一面，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)伯尼叔叔的故事具有巨大的生物醫(yī)學(xué)研究潛力。

01:13

We let Uncle Bernie and his fellowgenealogists document their family trees through a genealogy website calledgeni.com. When users upload their trees to the website, it scans theirrelatives, and if it finds matches to existing trees, it merges the existingand the new tree together. The result is that large family trees are created,beyond the individual level of each genealogist. Now, by repeating this processwith millions of people all over the world, we can crowdsource the constructionof a family tree of all humankind.

我們讓伯尼叔叔和他的家譜同行，通過(guò)族譜網(wǎng)站 geni.com 記錄他們的家譜。當(dāng)用戶上傳他們的家譜樹(shù)到網(wǎng)站時(shí)，網(wǎng)站會(huì)掃描他們的親戚，如果它發(fā)現(xiàn)匹配上現(xiàn)存的家譜樹(shù)，它會(huì)合并現(xiàn)存的和新的家譜樹(shù)。結(jié)果是超大的家族樹(shù)創(chuàng)建起來(lái)了，超越了每個(gè)家譜學(xué)家的個(gè)人水平。現(xiàn)在，憑借著全球數(shù)百萬(wàn)人不斷重復(fù)這個(gè)過(guò)程，我們可以眾包全人類家譜樹(shù)的建設(shè)。

01:51

Using this website, we were able to connect125 million people into a single family tree.

使用這個(gè)網(wǎng)站，我們能夠在一顆家族樹(shù)上連接 1.25 億人。

02:49

Thanks to the hard work of ourgenealogists, we can go back in time hundreds of years ago. For example, hereis Alexander Hamilton, who was born in 1755. Alexander was the first USSecretary of the Treasury, but mostly known today due to a popular Broadwaymusical. We found that Alexander has deeper connections in the showbizindustry. In fact, he's a blood relative of ... Kevin Bacon!

感謝家譜學(xué)家的努力工作，我們可以回到數(shù)百年前。比如，這是亞歷山大·漢密爾頓，他出生于 1755 年。亞歷山大是首任美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)，但主要由于一部流行的百老匯音樂(lè)劇而廣為人知。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)亞歷山大在娛樂(lè)圈有更深厚的人脈。事實(shí)上，他是——?jiǎng)P文·貝肯的血親！

03:20

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

03:22

Both of them are descendants of a lady fromScotland who lived in the 13th century. So you can say that Alexander Hamiltonis 35 degrees of Kevin Bacon genealogy.

他們都是13世紀(jì)一位來(lái)自蘇格蘭的女士的后代。所以你可以說(shuō)亞歷山大·漢密爾頓是 35 度凱文·貝肯的宗譜。

03:33

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

03:34

And our tree has millions of stories likethat.

我們的家譜樹(shù)有數(shù)百萬(wàn)類似的故事。

03:40

We invested significant efforts to validatethe quality of our data. Using DNA, we found that .3 percent of themother-child connections in our data are wrong, which could match the adoptionrate in the US pre-Second World War.

我們投入了不小的工作在驗(yàn)證數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)量上。使用DNA，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)我們數(shù)據(jù)中有 0.3% 的母子關(guān)系是錯(cuò)誤的，這可能與二戰(zhàn)前美國(guó)的收養(yǎng)率相當(dāng)。

03:56

For the father's side, the news is not asgood: 1.9 percent of the father-child connections in our data are wrong. And Isee some people smirk over here. It is what you think -- there are many milkmenout there. (Laughter) However, this 1.9 percent error rate in patrilinealconnections is not unique to our data. Previous studies found a similar errorrate using clinical-grade pedigrees. So the quality of our data is good, andthat should not be a surprise. Our genealogists have a profound, vestedinterest in correctly documenting their family history.

父親方面，消息也并不樂(lè)觀：我們的數(shù)據(jù)中 1.9% 的父子關(guān)系是錯(cuò)誤的。我看到有人在這兒訕笑。這是你們?cè)谙氲摹饷嬗泻芏鄶D牛奶的人。（笑聲）然而這 1.9% 的父子關(guān)系錯(cuò)誤率不是我們數(shù)據(jù)獨(dú)有的。早先使用臨床級(jí)血統(tǒng)的研究也發(fā)現(xiàn)了類似的錯(cuò)誤率。所以我們的數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量是良好的，并且這也不應(yīng)該是個(gè)意外。我們的系譜學(xué)家對(duì)正確記錄他們的家族史有著濃厚的興趣。

04:40

We can leverage this data to learnquantitative information about humanity, for example, questions aboutdemography. Here is a look at all our profiles on the map of the world. Eachpixel is a person that lived at some point. And since we have so much data, youcan see the contours of many countries, especially in the Western world. Inthis clip, we stratified the map that I've showed you based on the year ofbirths of individuals from 1400 to 1900, and we compared it to known migrationevents.

我們可以利用這些數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)了解人類的定量信息，比如，有關(guān)人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的問(wèn)題。這是我們的資料在世界地圖上的樣子。每個(gè)像素代表一個(gè)生活在特定位置的人。由于我們有很多數(shù)據(jù)，你可以看到很多國(guó)家的輪廓，尤其在西方世界。在這個(gè)視頻片段中，我們把給你展示的地圖根據(jù) 1400-1900 年出生的人口進(jìn)行分層，并且跟已知的遷移事件比較。

05:57

Now, since these migration events aregiving the context of families, we can ask questions such as: What is thetypical distance between the birth locations of husbands and wives? Thisdistance plays a pivotal role in demography, because the patterns in whichpeople migrate to form families determine how genes spread in geographicalareas. We analyzed this distance using our data, and we found that in the olddays, people had it easy. They just married someone in the village nearby. Butthe Industrial Revolution really complicated our love life. And today, withaffordable flights and online social media, people typically migrate more than100 kilometers from their place of birth to find their soul mate.

因?yàn)檫@些移民時(shí)間 提供了家庭的背景，我們可以問(wèn)諸如此類的問(wèn)題： 丈夫和妻子出生地 的特定距離是多少？ 這一距離在人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中 起著重要的作用，因?yàn)槿藗冞w移形成家庭的模式 決定了基因如何在地理位置上傳播。我們使用我們的數(shù)據(jù)分析了這個(gè)距離，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在古時(shí)候，人們過(guò)得很輕松。他們只是跟村子附近的某人結(jié)婚。但工業(yè)革命復(fù)雜化了我們的愛(ài)情生活。今天，憑著可負(fù)擔(dān)的航班和網(wǎng)絡(luò)社交媒體，人們通常從出生地遷移 100 多公里來(lái)尋找靈魂伴侶。

06:48

So now you might ask: OK, but who does thehard work of migrating from places to places to form families? Are these themales or the females? We used our data to address this question, and at leastin the last 300 years, we found that the ladies do the hard work of migratingfrom places to places to form families. Now, these results are statisticallysignificant, so you can take it as scientific fact that males are lazy.

所以現(xiàn)在你可能會(huì)問(wèn)：好吧，但是誰(shuí)會(huì)賣力從一個(gè)地方遷移到另一個(gè)地方去構(gòu)建家庭呢？ 是男人還是女人？ 我們使用我們的數(shù)據(jù)解答了這個(gè)問(wèn)題，至少在過(guò)去 300 年中，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)女性從一個(gè)地方遷移到另一個(gè)地方去構(gòu)建家庭上是最辛苦的。這些結(jié)果在統(tǒng)計(jì)上很顯著，所以你可以把男性懶惰當(dāng)作科學(xué)事實(shí)。

07:18

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

07:21

We can move from questions about demographyand ask questions about human health. For example, we can ask to what extentgenetic variations account for differences in life span between individuals.Previous studies analyzed the correlation of longevity between twins to addressthis question. They estimated that the genetic variations account for about aquarter of the differences in life span between individuals. But twins can becorrelated due to so many reasons, including various environmental effects or ashared household. Large family trees give us the opportunity to analyze bothclose relatives, such as twins, all the way to distant relatives, even fourthcousins. This way we can build robust models that can tease apart thecontribution of genetic variations from environmental factors. We conductedthis analysis using our data, and we found that genetic variations explain only15 percent of the differences in life span between individuals. That is fiveyears, on average. So genes matter less than what we thought before to lifespan. And I find it great news, because it means that our actions can mattermore. Smoking, for example, determines 10 years of our life expectancy -- twiceas much as what genetics determines.

我們可以把問(wèn)題從人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)向人類健康問(wèn)題。比如，我們可以問(wèn)遺傳變異能在多大程度上影響個(gè)體的壽命差異。之前的研究通過(guò)分析雙胞胎壽命的相關(guān)性來(lái)解答這個(gè)問(wèn)題。他們估計(jì)出遺傳變異對(duì)個(gè)體壽命差異的影響大約占 1/4。但雙胞胎之間的關(guān)聯(lián)有很多原因，包括多樣的環(huán)境影響或共同的家庭。龐大的家譜樹(shù)給了我們分析這些近親，比如雙胞胎，到遠(yuǎn)房親戚，甚至四代表親這樣的機(jī)會(huì)。這樣我們可以構(gòu)建穩(wěn)健的模型，從環(huán)境因素中分離出遺傳變異的貢獻(xiàn)來(lái)。我們使用數(shù)據(jù)執(zhí)行了這個(gè)分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)遺傳變異只解釋了 15% 的個(gè)體壽命差異。平均而言，就是 5 年之差。所以基因?qū)勖闹匾员任覀冎跋胂蟮纳?。我發(fā)現(xiàn)這是個(gè)好消息，因?yàn)檫@意味著我們的行動(dòng)更為重要。舉個(gè)例子，吸煙會(huì)影響大約10年的預(yù)期壽命——是基因所能影響的兩倍。

08:50

We can even have more surprising findingsas we move from family trees and we let our genealogists document andcrowdsource DNA information. And the results can be amazing. It might be hardto imagine, but Uncle Bernie and his friends can create DNA forensiccapabilities that even exceed what the FBI currently has. When you place theDNA on a large family tree, you effectively create a beacon that illuminatesthe hundreds of distant relatives that are all connected to the person thatoriginated the DNA. By placing multiple beacons on a large family tree, you cannow triangulate the DNA of an unknown person, the same way that the GPS systemuses multiple satellites to find a location.

隨著我們從家譜樹(shù)展開(kāi)，讓我們的家譜學(xué)專家建檔，并且眾包DNA信息，我們能有更多驚奇的發(fā)現(xiàn)。結(jié)果將是驚人的?？赡芰钊穗y以想象，伯尼叔叔和他的朋友能夠創(chuàng)建 DNA 法醫(yī)能力，甚至超過(guò)了 FBI 目前擁有的水平。當(dāng)你把 DNA 放在一棵大的家譜樹(shù)中，你就有效地創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)照亮數(shù)百個(gè)遠(yuǎn)親的燈塔，他們都與 DNA 的擁有者有聯(lián)系。通過(guò)在一棵大的家譜樹(shù)中放置不同的燈塔，你現(xiàn)在可以對(duì)一個(gè)陌生人的 DNA 進(jìn)行三角測(cè)量，就跟 GPS 系統(tǒng)利用不同的衛(wèi)星來(lái)定位一樣。

09:37

The prime example of the power of thistechnique is capturing the Golden State Killer, one of the most notoriouscriminals in the history of the US. The FBI had been searching for this personfor over 40 years. They had his DNA, but he never showed up in any policedatabase. About a year ago, the FBI consulted a genetic genealogist, and shesuggested that they submit his DNA to a genealogy service that can locatedistant relatives. They did that, and they found a third cousin of the GoldenState Killer. They built a large family tree, scanned the different branches ofthat tree, until they found a profile that exactly matched what they knew aboutthe Golden State Killer. They obtained DNA from this person and found a perfectmatch to the DNA they had in hand. They arrested him and brought him to justiceafter all these years. Since then, genetic genealogists have started workingwith local US law enforcement agencies to use this technique in order tocapture criminals. And only in the past six months, they were able to solveover 20 cold cases with this technique.

這種技術(shù)威力一個(gè)的主要例子是追捕“金州殺手”，美國(guó)歷史上最臭名昭著的罪犯之一。FBI 已經(jīng)尋找這人超過(guò) 40 年。他們有他的 DNA，但他從未出現(xiàn)在警方的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中。大約一年前，F(xiàn)BI 咨詢了一位基因譜系學(xué)家，她建議他們提交他的 DNA 到可以定位遠(yuǎn)房親戚的家譜服務(wù)平臺(tái)上。FBI 這樣做了，他們找到了金州殺手的第三代表親。他們構(gòu)建了一棵巨大的家譜樹(shù)，掃描樹(shù)上的不同分支，直到他們找到完美匹配他們所了解的金州殺手信息的人。他們從這人身上取得 DNA 并發(fā)現(xiàn)跟他們手上的 DNA 一致。過(guò)了這么些年，他們終于逮捕了他，并繩之與法。自那之后，基因譜系學(xué)家開(kāi)始跟美國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)貓?zhí)法機(jī)構(gòu)合作，使用這種技術(shù)來(lái)抓捕罪犯。僅僅在過(guò)去的 6 個(gè)月，他們使用這個(gè)技術(shù)就破獲了超過(guò) 20 個(gè)鐵證懸案。

10:56

Luckily, we have people like Uncle Bernieand his fellow genealogists These are not amateurs with a self-serving hobby.These are citizen scientists with a deep passion to tell us who we are. Andthey know that the past can hold a key to the future.

幸好，我們有這群人，像伯尼叔叔和他的家譜學(xué)同行，他們不只是業(yè)余愛(ài)好者。他們是滿懷熱情的公民科學(xué)家，想要揭開(kāi)我們所有人身份的秘密。他們知道，過(guò)去是通向未來(lái)的鑰匙。

11:16

Thank you very much. (Applause)

謝謝大家。（鼓掌）