The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis.
“Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available.”
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
五問:
(1)“Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased”和“some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied”是事實,倒數(shù)第二句話“To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city”是結(jié)論,值得反駁嗎?
(2)原文中的第一句話“ Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway”與第二句話“ Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased”之間的因果關(guān)系成立嗎?二者是唯一的因果關(guān)系嗎?你能想出其他也會導致同樣結(jié)果的原因嗎?當?shù)鼐郊訌娧策壉O(jiān)管也會使犯罪率下降,全市財產(chǎn)稅的增加可能是因為該市其他地區(qū)的企業(yè)繳稅增加了。
(3)文中是否給出了地區(qū)間的差異比較?同一項政策能夠簡單地在兩個不同地區(qū)取得相同的成果嗎?為什么不能?我們應(yīng)當考慮哪些因素?例如:另一地區(qū)的人口素質(zhì)低、法律意識薄弱,即使改造成工業(yè)區(qū)也不會使犯罪率下降;或者因地理位置、交通不便,不適合建工廠;建工廠也不一定能使財產(chǎn)稅增加。
(4)十年前的措施還適用于現(xiàn)在嗎?過去的情況和現(xiàn)在一致嗎?請回顧前面講過的時間軸論證錯誤。
(5)這一措施將促使現(xiàn)有居民尋找新的住所,但周圍有住房就意味著居民一定能夠輕松地入住嗎?難道不需要考慮居住習慣、價格等諸多因素嗎?