劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 97

Day 97 Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions

The following appeared in an e-mail sent by the marketing director of the Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville.

“Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows, causing our profits to decrease significantly. We must take action to attract new audience members. The best way to do so is by instituting a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program this summer. Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a ‘Free Plays in the Park’ program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then. If we start a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program, we can predict that our profits will increase, too.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五問：

（1）“Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows”“our profits to decrease significantly”和“Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a ‘Free Plays in the Park’ program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then”是事實， “We must take action to attract new audience members. The best way to do so is by instituting a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program this summer”是結論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）原文使用了簡單的類比論證，將 Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville與nearby Avon Repertory Company相比較；但是原文中是否給出了足夠的信息來證明這兩個對象之間是可以類比的呢？例如，地理位置的優(yōu)越性、價格、目標群體等方面是一致的嗎？（請回顧基礎理論部分，只有達成了哪些條件，我們才能夠認為兩個對象之間是可以類比的？）

（3）兩年前的情況和現在的情況一定是一致的嗎？我們能否簡單地將兩年前的經驗挪到今天來使用？（請回顧基礎理論部分對于時間軸論證的討論。）另外，兩個活動之間是否會有沖突？已有的活動可能已經吸引了很多附近的觀眾。

（4）原文中是否給出了足夠的信息證明 Avon Repertory Company的利潤增長是由于舉辦了“ Free Plays in the Park”這個活動？兩者之間的因果關系清楚嗎？是唯一的因果關系嗎？是最重要的因果關系嗎？

（5）利潤可能受到哪些因素的影響？例如：人工成本、經營成本等。是否所有的因素都會如愿地朝著需要的方向發(fā)展？有更多的人參與就意味著一定會產生更高的利潤嗎？為什么不一定？你能具體描述一下可能出現的相悖的情形嗎？例如：舉辦這個活動的費用超過了觀眾增加所帶來的收入。