全球數(shù)據(jù)：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能接近尾聲

The global downturn appeared close to a bottom yesterday after manufacturing figures from across the world suggested the worldwide recession was running out of steam in all big economies.

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷似乎已接近底部。昨天全球各地公布的制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，世界范圍的衰退在所有大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體均已接近尾聲。

The welcome news comes after nine months of the sharpest contraction in global manufacturing output since the second world war and a dramatic plunge in world trade as buyers of capital goods and consumer durables effectively went on strike.

在這些可喜的消息傳來(lái)之前9個(gè)月，全球制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出出現(xiàn)了第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最劇烈的收縮，世界貿(mào)易額驟降，資本貨物和耐用消費(fèi)品的買家實(shí)際上都進(jìn)入“罷工”狀態(tài)。

Stuart Green, global economist with HSBC, said the signs from around the world indicated that “a spell in the financial wilderness now looks less likely for the major economies . . . with a slowly improving cyclical picture factored in for the rest of 2009 and 2010 across many regions”.

匯豐銀行(HSBC)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯圖爾特·格林(Stuart Green)指出，世界各地的跡象表明，“如今看起來(lái)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體不太可能出現(xiàn)一陣金融荒野時(shí)期……在許多地區(qū)，在2009年剩余時(shí)間和2010年經(jīng)濟(jì)緩慢好轉(zhuǎn)的周期性圖景開(kāi)始顯現(xiàn)”。

But he and policymakers around the world fear that the coming upturn will be neither durable nor strong.

但是，他和世界各地的決策者擔(dān)心，即將到來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)回升將既不能持久也不夠強(qiáng)勁。

The recovery in global manufacturing has come primarily because companies have sold off much of their accumulated stocks and are re-starting mothballed production lines. Once this temporary boost is completed, serious questions remain about the source of longer term demand to maintain the current momentum.

全球制造業(yè)的恢復(fù)，主要是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)已經(jīng)出售了它們積累的大部分庫(kù)存，并重新啟動(dòng)被封存的生產(chǎn)線。一旦這個(gè)臨時(shí)推動(dòng)力完成，企業(yè)將依然要面對(duì)一個(gè)嚴(yán)肅的問(wèn)題：維持目前勢(shì)頭所需的更長(zhǎng)期需求來(lái)源在哪里？

The June data yesterday came from a series of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, the area of the global economy hardest hit by the recession. Although the headline figures were positive only in China, the manufacturing output element of the data was positive in the US, the UK and Japan as well.

昨天發(fā)布的6月份數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自對(duì)制造業(yè)部門采購(gòu)經(jīng)理的一系列調(diào)查，制造業(yè)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中受衰退打擊最嚴(yán)重的領(lǐng)域。盡管只有中國(guó)的整體數(shù)據(jù)為正數(shù)，但美國(guó)、英國(guó)、日本的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)也為正數(shù)。

譯者/力文