伯南克：美元低利率將持續(xù)很久

Yields on US Treasuries fell sharply yesterday as Ben Bernanke outlined the Federal Reserve's plan to extricate itself from its policy of near-zero interest rates but stressed the economy was too fragile to implement it soon.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日概述了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)結(jié)束接近零利率政策的計(jì)劃，但同時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào)，鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)于脆弱，不會(huì)很快實(shí)施這一計(jì)劃。受此影響，美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率急劇下跌。

In response to increasing pressure from investors and politicians, Mr Bernanke set out the Fed's “exit strategy” for its policies, which have pumped huge amounts of liquidity into the economy, prompting fears about inflation.

面對(duì)投資者和政界人士日益加大的壓力，伯南克列出了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)針對(duì)自身政策的“退出戰(zhàn)略”。這些政策為經(jīng)濟(jì)體注入了大量流動(dòng)性，進(jìn)而引發(fā)了通脹擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

But the Fed chairman stressed that in spite of glimmers of improvement in the economy, the Fed intended to keep interest rates extremely low for an “extended period”.

但伯南克強(qiáng)調(diào)，雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)已出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)跡象，但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)打算在“很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)期內(nèi)”將利率維持在極低水平。

“I want to be clear that we have a very long haul here because even if the economy begins to turn up in terms of production, unemployment is going to stay high for quite a while, so it's not going to feel like a really strong economy,” he said in his bi-annual report to Congress.

在向國(guó)會(huì)提交的半年度報(bào)告中，伯南克指出：“我想說(shuō)明，我們面臨著非常持久的困境，因?yàn)榧词菇?jīng)濟(jì)在產(chǎn)出方面開(kāi)始好轉(zhuǎn)，但失業(yè)率仍將在相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)時(shí)期內(nèi)居高不下，因此感覺(jué)上不會(huì)像一個(gè)非常強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)。”

The Fed expects the economy to start growing again at the end of this year but thinks the unemployment rate – now at 9.5 per cent – will remain elevated through 2011.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)期，今年底，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將再度開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)，但失業(yè)率——目前為9.5%——直到2011年仍將保持高企。

His testimony boosted the price of Treasuries and sunk the yield on the 10-year note by 12 basis points to 3.46 per cent as investors were persuaded that rates would stay low for a long time.

伯南克的證詞令投資者相信，低利率會(huì)維持相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。受此影響，美國(guó)國(guó)債價(jià)格走高，10年期國(guó)債收益率下跌12個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至3.46%。

Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group, said that reaction might not last. “Long-term yields will again face upward pressures from a combination of inflation fears and recovery hopes,” he said. “Inflation will not be a risk for some time but inflation fears could still complicate the Fed's job sooner than it would like.”

意大利聯(lián)合信貸銀行(UniCredit)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬可•阿隆齊奧塔(Marco Annunziata)表示，上述反應(yīng)可能不會(huì)持續(xù)太久。“對(duì)通脹的擔(dān)憂(yōu)和對(duì)復(fù)蘇的希望，將令長(zhǎng)期收益率再度面臨上行壓力，”他表示。“通脹在一段時(shí)期內(nèi)不會(huì)構(gòu)成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但通脹擔(dān)憂(yōu)仍可能令美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的任務(wù)復(fù)雜化，其時(shí)機(jī)可能早于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的期盼。”

譯者/章晴

莎拉•奧康納( Sarah O'Connor)、湯姆•布雷斯韋特(Tom Braithwaite)華盛頓，邁克爾•麥肯茲(Michael Mackenzie)紐約報(bào)道