“卡斯特羅思想”仍在影響古巴

Fidel Castro would rather have been born in a bigger country than Cuba. He knew Cuba’s economy would remain insignificant but he figured out how to make Cuba and himself noticed. No one man has shaped a country in modern times like Fidel. When he said ‘this time the revolution is for real’, he meant it. All that was in 1959. Now Cuba has lost its most famous son.

菲德爾•卡斯特羅(Fidel Castro)希望自己出生在一個比古巴更大的國家。他知道古巴經(jīng)濟無論怎樣發(fā)展都無足輕重，但他清楚如何讓古巴和自己引起注意。當今時代，沒有一個人在塑造一個國家方面趕得上菲德爾。當他說“這一次革命是當真的”時，他真的是那個意思。這一切都發(fā)生在1959年。如今，古巴失去了最出名的孩子。

The difference is that Fidel, his ideas and methods stayed around for more than 50 years. Unlike Nelson Mandela, he never stepped down to give others a chance. And in the past decade his brother Raúl has been left to try to make Fidel’s system work in the 21st century.

差別在于，菲德爾、他的思想和道路延續(xù)了50多年。和納爾遜•曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)不同，他從未卸下權力把機會留給別人。過去10年，他的弟弟勞爾(Raúl)受命嘗試讓菲德爾留下的制度在21世紀繼續(xù)運轉。

For Cubans, Fidel was how they learnt the alphabet — F for Fidel, Y for Yanqui. He was how they thought, how they saw the outside world and how they earned their living. His government made them dependent because they all worked for it. It was Fidel or nothing. Socialism or Death. He never suggested he would ask the people what they wanted. He told them and they believed. Now it is not clear what the ‘or’ is for Cuba.

對古巴人來說，菲德爾是他們最先學會的字母——F代表菲德爾，Y代表美國佬(Yanqui)。他們?nèi)绾嗡伎?、如何觀察外部世界、如何謀生，都要通過菲德爾。他的政府讓人們變得依賴，因為他們?nèi)紴檎ぷ鳌Ｒ磽碜o菲德爾，要么一無所有。要么選擇社會主義，要么選擇死亡。他從未提出他會問古巴人民想要什么。他說什么，他們就得相信什么?，F(xiàn)在不清楚古巴的“另一種選擇”是什么。

Fidel proved a small country could stand up to its big neighbour and make a difference in spreading an ideology that offered hope to the poor. The leaders attending his funeral will show that many still remember those days. His imagination was matched by his ruthlessness. Just as he improved life for the poor and illiterate, he ruined the lives of many other Cubans who had something to lose. Their choice was to accept repression or leave — many did. And Fidel’s major problem was that he never engineered a national economy prosperous enough to provide for his big plans. He used other countries’ money to fund his revolution, first the Soviet Union, and latterly Venezuela. He used the US embargo to garner international sympathy. So the question now about the ‘or’ is where does the money come from?

卡斯特羅證明了，一個小國可以對抗強大的鄰國，可以在傳播給予窮人希望的意識形態(tài)方面有所作為。出席卡斯特羅葬禮的各國領導人將證明，許多人仍然記得那些日子。他的冷酷無情和想象力一樣突出。在改善了窮人、文盲的生活水平之際，他也毀掉了其他許多有點資產(chǎn)的古巴人的生活。他們只能選擇接受壓制或是離去——許多人選擇離開?？ㄋ固亓_的主要問題在于，他從未使古巴國民經(jīng)濟繁榮到足以實現(xiàn)他的宏大計劃。他利用別國的資金為自己的革命買單——首先是蘇聯(lián)，近年是委內(nèi)瑞拉。他利用美國對古巴的貿(mào)易禁運博取國際同情。因此，現(xiàn)在關于古巴的“另一種選擇”的問題是，未來錢從哪里來?

Cuba in 2016 offers little of the freshness and ambition that filled the air in 1959. Though Cuba’s education and healthcare are still widely admired in the developing world, Fidel has bequeathed a country that is not projecting a clear vision. Its main earners of foreign currency are tourism, medical services and remittances from families mainly in the US. That is not enough to fund socialist largesse. And the only alternative seems to be a dismantling of some revolutionary controls, promoting foreign investment and the private sector to allow ordinary Cubans to get rich and build their lives. Fidel always knew this would lessen their dependence on the government.

2016年的古巴早已沒有了1959年那種彌漫全國的生機和雄心。雖然古巴的教育和醫(yī)療仍受到發(fā)展中世界的廣泛敬佩，但卡斯特羅留下的是一個不能投射清晰愿景的國家。古巴獲取外匯主要依靠旅游、醫(yī)療服務以及主要旅居美國的古巴人給家人的匯款。這不足以支撐慷慨的社會主義事業(yè)。唯一的出路似乎在于解除部分革命控制措施，推動外商投資和私營部門，允許普通古巴人致富，打造自己的美好人生。菲德爾當然知道，這樣將減少他們對政府的依賴。

Raúl has said there will be no shock therapy in Cuba. He knows that Fidel’s revolution would perhaps crumble under a scramble to make up for the years of economic decline. He has vowed to step down in 2018 but that may now be rethought. Without Fidel, Raúl could decide that the government’s shackles are holding Cuba back, and accepting new ideas would no longer be an embarrassment. But the one-party system with thousands of bureaucrats trained to stifle change is not fitted to promote a smooth transition to a new economic rule book.

勞爾已表示，古巴不會采取休克療法。他知道，急于在短時間內(nèi)扭轉多年來的經(jīng)濟衰敗，可能讓菲德爾的革命毀于一旦。他曾誓言在2018年卸任，但現(xiàn)在或許會重新考慮這一決定。菲德爾去世后，勞爾可能得出結論：政府的枷鎖正在阻礙古巴進步，接受新思想將不再令人尷尬。但是，擁有成千上萬依靠扼殺變革為生的官僚的一黨制，不適合推進向著新經(jīng)濟模式的平穩(wěn)過渡。

Cuba is not yet Castroless. Beyond Raúl there are sons, sons-in-law and a daughter, Mariela. For years to come there will always be the Fidel effect. Somehow Cuba has to emerge from all that and find new ideas that will not betray the revolution’s legacy. Fidel detested the Chinese model and Raúl has not accepted that it is good for Cuba and for ordinary Cubans to get rich. But without Fidel, Cuba will be less likely to be given a free pass with other countries. Cuba will lose its allure and will have to talk the international language of business.

古巴尚未實現(xiàn)去卡斯特羅化。除了勞爾，還有他的兒子、女婿以及女兒瑪麗拉(Mariela)。菲德爾的影響將在未來延續(xù)很多年。古巴必須設法擺脫這一切，同時找到不會背叛革命遺產(chǎn)的新思想。菲德爾不喜歡中國模式，勞爾也并未認可中國模式對古巴及普通古巴人致富有好處。但菲德爾去世后，其他國家將不太可能再讓古巴搭便車。古巴將失去吸引力，不得不學會用國際商業(yè)語言商談。

Fidel has left a country trying to disentangle itself from its over-dependence on Venezuela and use the new US relationship to help revive its economy. He opposed both of these options. Now Donald Trump, despite the widespread popularity of the Obama measures, seems keen to undo the Obama effect and side with Fidel. Just when Cuba has a chance to move ahead a familiar scenario looms. Fidel would have been amused and perhaps rather pleased.

菲德爾留下的古巴，正嘗試擺脫對委內(nèi)瑞拉的過度依賴，并利用與美國新建立的關系幫助重振國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟。對于這兩個選項，菲德爾生前都表示反對。如今，雖然奧巴馬政府的措施受到了廣泛歡迎，但唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎熱衷于逆轉奧巴馬的政策，站在菲德爾一邊。就在古巴有機會向前邁進之際，熟悉的一幕正在浮出水面。菲德爾對此應會感到好笑，或許還會相當高興。

The writer is a former UK ambassador to Cuba and is a senior lecturer at Boston University’s Frederick S Pardee School of Global Studies

本文作者是英國前駐古巴大使、波士頓大學弗雷德里克•帕迪全球問題研究院(Boston University’s Frederick S Pardee School of Global Studies)高級講師