到2030年，將有4000萬糖尿病患者無胰島素可用

As the number of people living with diabetes continues to rise, the access to insulin needed to meet growing demand will fall short, a new study predicts.

一項新研究預(yù)測，隨著糖尿病患者的數(shù)量持續(xù)增加，胰島素將會無法滿足日益增長的需求而短缺。

By 2030, 79 million adults with type 2 diabetes are expected to need insulin to manage their condition and if current levels of access remain, only half of them will be able to be able to get an adequate supply, according to a modeling study published Wednesday in the journal Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology.

根據(jù)一項于本周三發(fā)表在《柳葉刀：內(nèi)分泌代謝雜志》上的建模研究，到了2030年，據(jù)推測將有7900萬成年二型糖尿病患者需要使用胰島素來控制病情，如果按照現(xiàn)在的胰島素獲取水平來看，只有一半的患者能有足夠的胰島素。

Access to the drug must be significantly improved, the researchers warn, particularly in the African, Asian and Oceania regions, which will be most affected.

研究人員警示道，胰島素的獲取必須大幅度改進(jìn)，尤其是在非洲、亞洲和大洋洲區(qū)域，這些地區(qū)將會受到最嚴(yán)重的影響。

"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are highly inadequate compared to projected need, particularly in Africa and Asia, and more efforts should be devoted to overcoming this looming health challenge," said Dr. Sanjay Basu, assistant professor of medicine at Stanford University in the US, who led the research.

“這些預(yù)測表明，和預(yù)期的需求比起來，目前的胰島素獲取水平嚴(yán)重不足，特別是在亞洲和非洲，需要更多的努力來克服這一不斷逼近的健康挑戰(zhàn)，”本研究的帶頭人，來自美國斯坦福大學(xué)的醫(yī)學(xué)助理教授Sanjay Basu博士說。

"Despite the UN's commitment to treat non-communicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily difficult for patients to access."

“盡管聯(lián)合國承諾了會治療非傳染疾病，并保證全球的患者都能獲得治療糖尿病的藥物，但是世界大多數(shù)地方，胰島素都很稀缺，患者獲取起來非常困難。”

Insulin is needed to treat all people with type 1 diabetes and some people with type 2 diabetes. The latter form of the disease is strongly linked to lifestyle factors such as obesity, poor diet and physical inactivity.

全部的一型糖尿病患者和部分二型糖尿病患者都需要使用胰島素來治療。后者這種糖尿病和生活方式因素之間有著很強(qiáng)的關(guān)聯(lián)，比如說肥胖、飲食不良以及缺乏運(yùn)動。

Basu's team set out to explore how rates of diabetes will change over the next 12 years, namely by how much numbers will rise, in order to predict the amount of insulin that will be needed and whether everyone who needs it will have access.

Basu的團(tuán)隊著手探索糖尿病的發(fā)病率在接下來的12年中會如何改變，也就說患者人數(shù)將會上升多少，借此來預(yù)測屆時所需的胰島素量，以及是否每個患者都能接受胰島素治療。

Using data from the International Diabetes Federation and 14 studies to get a picture of type 2 diabetes numbers across 221 countries, the team modeled the burden of type 2 diabetes from 2018 to 2030.

研究團(tuán)隊使用了國際糖尿病聯(lián)盟的數(shù)據(jù)，并通過14個研究大致了解了221個國家中二型糖尿病患者的人數(shù)，然后制作了2018年至2030年二型糖尿病趨勢的模型。

They predicted that, worldwide, the number of adults with type 2 diabetes will rise from 406 million in 2018 to 511 million in 2030. The United States will have the third highest numbers globally, with 32 million people predicted to be living with the condition in 2030.

他們預(yù)測在全球范圍內(nèi)，成年二型糖尿病患者的數(shù)量將從2018年的4.06億上升到2030年的5.11億。而美國的患者數(shù)量位列全球第三，據(jù)預(yù)測截至2030年將會有3200萬人患上二型糖尿病。

"The number of adults with type 2 diabetes is expected to rise over the next 12 years due to aging, urbanization and associated changes in diet and physical activity," said Basu.

“由于年齡增加、城市化以及飲食和運(yùn)動方面的變化，在接下來的12年中，據(jù)預(yù)測成年二型糖尿病的患者數(shù)量會上升，”Basu說。

However, not all people with diabetes require insulin. Of that global total of 511 million, 79 million were predicted to be in need of insulin to manage their diabetes -- a 20% rise in the demand for insulin -- and only 38 million are likely to have access to it based on current resources.

不過，不是所有糖尿病患者都需要胰島素。根據(jù)預(yù)測全球5.11億的患者中，有7900萬需要接受胰島素治療來控制病情，也就是說胰島素的需求量上升了20%，而根據(jù)目前的資源分配，到時候只有3800萬人能拿到胰島素。

Insulin treatment is expensive and the market is currently dominated by three manufacturers, according to the study.

根據(jù)此研究，胰島素治療價格高昂，而且目前的市場是被三家生產(chǎn)商分割壟斷。

"Unless governments begin initiatives to make insulin available and affordable, then its use is always going to be far from optimal," said Basu.

“除非各國政府開始積極的讓胰島素更普及并且更廉價，那么胰島素則一直沒有物盡其用，”Basu表示。