金融英語泛讀:魚和熊掌兼顧的投資智慧

All-suitable Investment Wisdom魚和熊掌兼顧的投資智慧

Even the experts can't agree whether rising or falling prices lie in our future.

That leaves investors in a quandary:how to construct a portfolio at a time of great uncertainty？A wrong bet could be devastating. If your portfolio is built for deflation, for example, your assets will slump if the country instead experiences about of inflation.

The answer is to prepare for the economic scenario you think is most likely, and then build in some insurance in case you are wrong.

“If you want to win the war，”says Rich Rosso, a financial consultant at Charles Schwab，“you have to own both sides of the fight to some degree.”

Such an approach necessarily means some investments will suffer no matter how the economy turns.

Here are three portfolios, each with built-in insurance. The first will do best in an inflationary period but won't be crushed if deflation instead rules the day.The second is for investors who fear deflation, but want some protection against potential inflation.And the third is aimed at investors who believe the economy will muddle through without severe inflation or deflation.Inflation

If you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.

Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper and pork bellies should gain. Plus, commodities-particularly gold-hedge against the dollar, offering a 2-for-1 benefit if a weak dollar accompanies inflation, as some expect.

Insurance Component：Long-term Treasury bonds and municipal bonds.

Both will likely soar in value amid deflation because their long period of fixed payments would be an attractive source of income as prices for goods and services broadly fall, and as paychecks shrink. And Treasury papers, in particular, would likely become a haven for foreign investors, further pushing up their price.

Deflation

Portfolio preparation is easier for deflationists：Put a chunk of money into long-term Treasury bonds and much of the rest into cash and some municipal bonds.

If broad-based deflation materializes, long-term Treasury papers are likely to surge. The bonds'fixed-income stream, meanwhile, would be worth increasingly more relative to falling consumer prices.

Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash. Though it won't generate much of a return in a low-rate, deflationary environment, cash in the bank will gain value as prices fall.

Insurance Component：Commodities react most drastically to surprise inflation, so they should be part of your insurance. If inflation arises, companies such Coca-Cola, tobacco giant Altria, and toothpaste maker Colgate-Palmolive will have some pricing power.

Goldilocks Economy

Maybe, just maybe, world bankers will get this right, and the economy will experience neither severe inflation nor severe deflation.

“We think most likely the central banks of the world will get this close enough to right that we will settle in close to a relatively benign inflation rate of between 1. 5%and 2.5%，”says Aaron Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth.“In such a‘Goldilocks'scenario-where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold-risky assets would do best, so equities and bonds with some equity characteristics should receive the emphasis，”says Scott Wolle, portfolio manager of the AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund.

For the bond component, pick a fund such as the Fidelity Total Bond fund that largely owns high-grade, intermediate-term corporate bonds and mortgages, along with government and agency debt.

Insurance Component：Just in case the Goldilocks scenario is wrong, you will need insurance against either inflation or deflation. Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasury papers.Cash also is OK in either situation.

即便是專家，對物價到底是漲還是跌的看法也不一。

這就給投資者出了一個難題：在經(jīng)濟前景如此不明朗的情況下，該如何構(gòu)建自己的投資組合呢？下錯了注，受到的打擊將是致命的。比如，你的組合是基于對通貨緊縮的預(yù)期，那么假使發(fā)生了通貨膨脹，你的資產(chǎn)便會大幅縮水。

最佳方案就是，按你認為最有可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟狀況來進行投資，同時采取一定的保險措施，以防止出現(xiàn)失誤。

嘉信理財?shù)慕鹑谧稍儙熇锲妗ち_索說：“要想贏得戰(zhàn)爭的勝利，作戰(zhàn)雙方你都得投點資?！?/p>

采取這種投資方式的話，不管經(jīng)濟形勢如何，你都會有部分資產(chǎn)受損。

下面的三種投資組合均考慮了內(nèi)在的保險要素。第一種組合在通貨膨脹時期表現(xiàn)最佳，遭遇通貨緊縮時卻也不致崩盤。第二種適于那些預(yù)期通貨緊縮，同時也希望能夠應(yīng)對通貨膨脹的投資者。第三種針對的則是那些認為經(jīng)濟發(fā)展溫和，既不會有嚴重的通貨膨脹也不會有嚴重通貨緊縮的投資者。

通貨膨脹型投資

如果你認為政府應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟危機的一應(yīng)開銷最終會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹，那么你肯定希望自己的投資組合在物價上漲時能有良好表現(xiàn)。商品期貨可以是投資的重頭，因為到時候原油、糧食、銅、豬肉的價格都會上漲。而且，大宗商品——尤其是黃金，可對沖美元貶值。有人預(yù)計，在美元疲軟兼通脹的形勢下，投資黃金可能會帶來雙倍的收益。

保險元素：長期國債和市政債券。

這兩種債券在通貨緊縮時期價格都會攀升，因為在商品和服務(wù)大幅降價、薪酬縮水的情況下，這兩種債券的長期固定收益會是一筆可觀的收入。尤其是美國國債，到時會很受國外投資者的青睞，從而價格會受到進一步的推動。

通貨緊縮型投資

通貨緊縮論者要構(gòu)建投資組合相對更為容易：可將大部分錢購置長期美國國債，剩余的錢，一部分存現(xiàn)，一部分購入市政債券。

如果大范圍通貨緊縮成為現(xiàn)實，長期國債便極有可能會升值。

而與此同時，債券的固定收益同消費價格下跌的關(guān)聯(lián)日益密切。如果你對經(jīng)濟的預(yù)期是通貨緊縮，那么就在你的投資組合中保留大量的現(xiàn)金吧。把現(xiàn)金存在銀行，在低利率、通貨緊縮的環(huán)境下產(chǎn)生不了大的收益，不過隨著物價的下跌，存在銀行里的現(xiàn)金實際上是升值的。

保險元素：假使通脹不期而至，大宗商品期貨會有最大的收益，所以應(yīng)當將其作為一項保險措施。如果通脹爆發(fā)，可口可樂公司、煙草巨頭奧馳亞集團、牙膏生產(chǎn)商高露潔-棕欖等企業(yè)便有了定價權(quán)。

金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟型投資

可能，僅僅是可能——全世界的銀行家都很了解這一點——經(jīng)濟既沒有嚴重的通貨膨脹，也沒有嚴重的通貨緊縮。

巴克萊全球投資策略主管亞倫·格威茨說：“我們認為，各國央行最終極有可能將通脹率保持在相對溫和的水平，即介于1.5%至2.5%之間?！?/p>

AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation基金投資組合經(jīng)理斯科特·沃勒說：“在‘金發(fā)女孩’經(jīng)濟時期——經(jīng)濟既不過熱也不過冷，風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)會有最好的表現(xiàn)，股票和帶有股票性質(zhì)的債券應(yīng)當是關(guān)注的重點?！?/p>

債券部分可以選擇一只基金，比如富達債券總指數(shù)基金，該基金持有高等級中期企業(yè)債券、抵押貸款及政府和政府機構(gòu)債務(wù)。

保險元素：假設(shè)關(guān)于金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟的預(yù)期是錯誤的，那么你需要抵御通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮的雙重風(fēng)險?？梢再徣氪笞谏唐方灰姿I賣基金來應(yīng)對通貨膨脹、長期國債來應(yīng)對通貨緊縮?，F(xiàn)金則是可以同時應(yīng)對兩種情況的法寶。

實戰(zhàn)提升

核心單詞

quandary['kw?nd?ri]n.困惑；為難；窘境

portfolio[p?:t'f?uli?u]n.（投資者持有的）全部有價證券；投資組合

scenario[si'nɑ:ri?u]n.事態(tài)；局面

beget[bi'get]v.引起；招致

shrink[?ri?k]v.收縮；縮短；皺縮

benign[bi'nain]adj.有利的；吉利的

財經(jīng)知識一點通

通貨緊縮（deflation）

當市場上流通的貨幣減少，人民的購買力下降，物價下跌，造成通貨緊縮。長期的貨幣緊縮會抑制投資與生產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率升高及經(jīng)濟衰退。

通貨膨脹（inflation）

一般指在紙幣流通條件下，因貨幣供給大于貨幣實際需求，導(dǎo)致貨幣貶值，而引起一段時間內(nèi)物價持續(xù)而普遍上漲的現(xiàn)象。

翻譯練習(xí)

Even the experts can't agree whether rising or falling prices lie in our future.

Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash.

Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasury papers.