IMF：人民幣升值有助全球經濟增長

The global economic recovery continues to strengthen, the International Monetary Fund said, but growth in the U.S. and wealthier nations in Europe may depend on a depreciation of their currencies compared to China and other developing countries.
國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund，簡稱IMF)稱，全球經濟復蘇之勢在繼續(xù)加強，但美國和歐洲富裕國家的復蘇前景，或將取決于本幣是否相對中國等發(fā)展中國家的貨幣貶值。

As wealthy nations rein in stimulus spending, consumer demand and exports may be weak, said the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard. 'So this implies in general, an appreciation of emerging market currencies relative to advanced countries' currencies.'
IMF首席經濟學家布蘭查德(Olivier Blanchard)認為，隨著發(fā)達國家減少刺激性支出，其消費需求和出口可能會陷入疲軟，這意味著要讓新興市場貨幣從總體上相對于發(fā)達國家貨幣升值。

Mr. Blanchard had China specifically in mind. In its semi-annual World Economic Outlook, released Wednesday, the IMF repeated that the Chinese yuan is 'substantially' undervalued.
布蘭查德專門提到了中國。IMF周三發(fā)布的半年度《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook) 報告再一次說，人民幣處于被“大幅”低估的狀態(tài)。

Mr. Blanchard said that allowing the yuan to strengthen would help Beijing shift to more domestic-led growth and reduce the chances that the economy would overheat. 'An appreciation of the currency, appears highly desirable on its own,' he said.
布蘭查德認為，允許人民幣升值將有助于中國向更加倚重于國內的經濟增長方式轉變，并降低經濟過熱的風險。他說，以中國自身利益來看，人民幣升值顯得十分可取。

The IMF, U.S. and European nations have long been pressing China to revalue its currency, and Beijing has long resisted the move. But in recent weeks, the U.S. and China have given signals that a small revaluation may be in the works.
長期以來，IMF和歐美各國一直在敦促中國重估人民幣，中國一直予以抵制。但從最近幾個星期美國和中國傳遞出的信號來看，人民幣可能即將進行一次小幅升值。

Overall, the IMF lifted its forecasts of global growth to 4.2% in 2010, up from the 3.9% projection given in January.
IMF對2010年世界經濟整體增長率的預測，從1月份的3.9%調高到了4.2%。

In 2011, the IMF expects growth of 4.3% -- a bit slower than average global growth before the financial crisis hit hard in 2007. But the speed of the recovery varies greatly by region.
IMF對2011年增長率的預測是4.3%，略低于2007年金融危機襲來之前的全球平均增長水平。但各個地區(qū)的復蘇速度存在很大差異。

The fund expects developing countries to grow at a 6.3% pace this year and 6.5% next year. As usual, the star performers are expected to be China with growth of 10% this year and 9.9% in 2011, and India, with an 8.8% growth rate projected in 2010, followed by 8.4% next year.
IMF預計，今年、明年發(fā)展中國家將分別實現(xiàn)6.3%和6.5%的增長。按其預測，表現(xiàn)最好的仍將是中國和印度：中國在今年增長10%，2011年增長9.9%；印度2010年增長8.8%，明年增長8.4%。

That's a far more rapid clip than what the IMF terms 'advanced economies' -- essentially the U.S., Europe and Japan -- which are projected to grow 2.3% in 2010 and 2.4% next year. In that group, the U.S. is expected to grow 3.1% in 2010 and 2.6% next year, while the 16 euro-zone nations are expected to struggle along at a 1% clip this year and 1.5% next year.
這個速度要遠遠高于IMF所稱的“發(fā)達經濟體”的增速。發(fā)達經濟體實際上就是美國、歐洲和日本，預計這些國家今明兩年的增速將分別為2.3%和2.4%。在發(fā)達經濟體中，預計美國今明兩年將分別增長3.1%和2.6%，而歐元區(qū)16國將增長緩慢，今明兩年的增速分別為1%和1.5%。

Japan is expected to grow 1.9% this year and 2% in 2011, the IMF said.
IMF說，預計日本今明兩年將分別增長1.9%和2%。

Greece's financial woes could dampen the outlook for Europe in particular, the IMF said. 'In the near term, a risk is that, if unchecked, market concerns about sovereign liquidity and solvency in Greece could turn into a full-blown and contagious sovereign debt crisis,' the IMF said.
IMF說，希臘的財務問題可能尤其會令歐洲的前景變得不樂觀。IMF說，短期來看，有個風險是，如果市場對希臘主權流動性和償債能力的擔憂沒有被控制住的話，可能會變成全面的、傳染性的主權債務危機。

The fragility of the recovery in most advanced economies suggests that they should continue with already-planned fiscal stimulus measures this year. By next year, the IMF expects recoveries to become self-sustaining, allowing many countries to begin 'significant' reduction in deficits, even as monetary policy remains easy.
大部分發(fā)達經濟體的復蘇都很脆弱，這顯示出它們今年應該繼續(xù)實施已經計劃好的財政刺激措施。IMF預計，明年之前復蘇將能獨立維持，這會讓很多國家可以在貨幣政策依然保持寬松之際，開始大幅減少赤字。

The IMF didn't give specific advice about which countries should reduce fiscal stimulus next year -- or how deeply.
IMF沒有就哪些國家明年應該減少財政刺激提供具體的忠告，也沒有說減少的幅度應該多大。

But the IMF is clearly worried about rising debt levels choking off recoveries by boosting interest rates for governments, banks and other commercial borrowers.
不過，IMF顯然擔心不斷上升的債務水平會提高政府、銀行和其他商業(yè)借款人的利率，進而遏制復蘇。

The fund projects debt levels in advanced economies to top 100% of gross domestic product in 2014 based on current policies, up 35 percentage points from before the crisis. Bringing that back down below 60% of GDP by 2030 would require budget cuts of eight percentage points of GDP by 2020, and maintaining that level for the next decade.
IMF預計，如果繼續(xù)實施現(xiàn)行政策，2014年發(fā)達經濟體的債務水平將達到國內生產總值(GDP)的100%，較危機前高出35個百分點。在2030年前將債務水平降到GDP的60%以下，這需要這些國家在2020年前將預算占GDP的比例降低八個百分點，并在接下來的10年中保持這一水平。

Withdrawing stimulus, would only accomplish a spending reduction of 1.5 percentage points of GDP, the fund said. Thus, more drastic fiscal measures are needed, from cutting discretionary spending and broadening the tax base to tackling longer-term entitlement costs, the IMF said.
IMF說，退出刺激措施只會令支出占GDP的比例減少1.5個百分點。IMF說，這樣就需要采取更大力度的財政措施，從減少不必要支出和擴大稅收基礎，到應對更長期權益成本。