中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)公司的苦日子開(kāi)始了

China's property companies have had a tough few weeks. The really hard times may just be starting.
近幾周，中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)公司度日如年。然而真正艱難的時(shí)刻或許才剛剛開(kāi)始。

Property-market transactions have fallen off a cliff since Beijing announced several tightening measures in mid-April. Property website Soufun.com, in a survey of 24 major cities, reported sales were down 40% in the four weeks after those moves.
自北京于4月中旬宣布數(shù)條緊縮措施之后，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的交易量直線下落。房地產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站搜房網(wǎng)在對(duì)24個(gè)主要城市進(jìn)行調(diào)查后指出，在這些措施出臺(tái)后的四周時(shí)間里，房屋交易量下跌40%。

What's not clear yet is how this will affect price levels. China's data on property aren't very comprehensive, but the best measure -- a survey of 70 cities carried out by the national statistics bureau -- suggested prices were still rising fast in April, up 12.8% on year. Figures for May are due this week.
這將對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)產(chǎn)生何種影響尚不得而知。中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)并不十分全面，但國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局對(duì)70個(gè)城市進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，4月房?jī)r(jià)仍然上漲較快，同比上漲12.8%。這是最好的估計(jì)。5月的數(shù)據(jù)將于本周公布。

Prices may be sticky for a while, as developers cling to hope that the sales slump will prove temporary. A more realistic scenario -- given signs Beijing remains determined to cool the market -- is of on-year prices flattening out and even falling as 2010 progresses.
由于開(kāi)發(fā)商希望銷量驟減只是暫時(shí)現(xiàn)象，價(jià)格或許仍將堅(jiān)挺一段時(shí)間。鑒于北京決心給房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)降溫的跡象，更現(xiàn)實(shí)的推測(cè)是2010年房?jī)r(jià)同比持平，甚至下跌。

That likely means further pain for property stocks in China, despite some research analysts' optimism that the bottom has already been reached. The average one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio for the sector has dipped to just under 10 this month, below the average level of 13.6 over the past decade. Still, that's some way ahead of the last trough of around five times forward earnings seen toward the end of 2008, according to Royal Bank of Scotland research.
這很可能意味著，盡管部分研究分析師對(duì)股市已經(jīng)觸底持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，但中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)股很可能還將承擔(dān)更多的痛苦。這個(gè)月，這一板塊的平均未來(lái)一年的預(yù)期市盈率已跌至略低于10倍，且低于過(guò)去10年的平均水平──13.6倍。盡管如此，據(jù)蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)研究顯示，仍有可能跌至2008年底時(shí)的最近一次谷底，即預(yù)期市盈率為五倍左右。

For sure, some stocks may prove less resilient than others. Companies that are reliant for profits on one city -- such as Sino-Ocean Land Holdings or Longfor Properties in Beijing -- may suffer, says Mirae Asset Securities.
當(dāng)然，部分股票或許比其它股票的抗跌性差。未來(lái)資產(chǎn)證券(Mirae Asset Securities)說(shuō)，北京遠(yuǎn)洋地產(chǎn)或龍湖地產(chǎn)等僅依賴于一個(gè)城市獲得利潤(rùn)的公司或許損失巨大。

Larger players with businesses that are more diversified across China, such as China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land or Shimao Property Holdings, could stay above the pack.
在中國(guó)各地的業(yè)務(wù)更為多樣化的更大型地產(chǎn)公司，如中國(guó)海外發(fā)展有限公司、華潤(rùn)置地有限公司和世茂集團(tuán)等，可能情況稍好。

Even counting on this is risky. The danger is that they, too, will get swept along as the prevailing wind of bad feeling about China's property sector blows stronger.
但它們也會(huì)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。隨著中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)惡化的感覺(jué)越來(lái)越強(qiáng)且開(kāi)始橫掃一切之后，這些公司也將無(wú)法幸免。