歐盟終于有對(duì)俄羅斯采取強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度的跡象

Europe is finally showing interest in playing hardball with Vladimir Putin.

According to a report from Reuters, leaders from the European Union met Tuesday to discuss stepping up sanctions against Russia in retaliation for Putin’s support of rebel groups in eastern Ukraine and for his refusal to fully cooperate with an international investigation into the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 last week.

While E.U. leaders did agree to widen the list of individuals and companies that would face sanctions, they could not come to agreement on a broader set of sanctions, like blocking Russian access to European capital markets and technology. In addition, France has so far refused to renege on a $1.62 billion deal to build and deliver warships to Russia, defying British and American wishes.

But it’s not entirely surprising that the E.U. has failed to step up to the plate with tougher sanctions. Unlike the United States, the European Union has deep economic ties to Russia, and taking steps to block Russian access to capital markets could have destabilizing effects on the European economy, which is itself still muddling through a banking crisis that has left the bloc with slow growth and high unemployment.

As Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients Tuesday morning:

“If Russia has already been excluded from global capital markets, and if imports of energy-related capital goods and all defense-related transactions have been scratched, Russia loses nothing incremental from walking away from servicing its $720 billion worth of foreign debt. Most of those bonds are held by Western European banks and investment funds. Russia could induce pain well beyond what it is experiencing from these sanctions by simply withholding debt service payments for 120 days, after which most institutions would have to write down the loans.”

With European banks already in bad shape, and the E.U. economy just barely growing as it is, it’s no surprise that European leaders are having a hard time declaring full-on economic warfare against Russia, even if they are fed up with Putin’s behavior.

歐盟終于有了對(duì)普京采取強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度的意向。

根據(jù)路透社(Reuters)的一篇報(bào)道，由于普京支持烏克蘭東部的反政府武裝，同時(shí)拒絕就馬航MH-17被擊落事件全面配合國際調(diào)查，歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人于周二舉行會(huì)晤，討論對(duì)俄羅斯的制裁問題。

盡管歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人同意增加需要制裁的個(gè)人和公司數(shù)量，但在擴(kuò)大制裁范圍，如阻止俄羅斯進(jìn)入歐洲資本市場(chǎng)或獲得歐盟的技術(shù)上，他們?nèi)匀粵]有達(dá)成共識(shí)。此外，到目前為止，法國拒絕取消為俄羅斯建造和供應(yīng)戰(zhàn)艦的價(jià)值16.2億美元的合同，這與英國和美國的意見相左。

不過歐盟無法對(duì)俄羅斯采取更加嚴(yán)厲的制裁，這點(diǎn)并不完全在意料之外。與美國不同，歐盟與俄羅斯在經(jīng)濟(jì)上有著千絲萬縷的聯(lián)系，拒絕俄羅斯進(jìn)入資本市場(chǎng)不利于歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定。而歐盟本身仍然在金融危機(jī)的泥潭中掙扎，整體發(fā)展緩慢，失業(yè)率居高不下。

高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)公司(High Frequency Economics)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾•維恩伯格在本周二給客戶的報(bào)告中寫道：

“如果俄羅斯被排除在全球資本市場(chǎng)之外，或者如果俄羅斯在進(jìn)口能源類資本貨物以及進(jìn)行國防類交易時(shí)受到影響，他們只要不去償還價(jià)值7,200億美元的外債，就不會(huì)有什么其他損失。這些債券大多由西歐銀行以及投資基金持有。俄羅斯只要暫緩償付債務(wù)120天，就能把自己遭受的痛苦百倍奉還，大多數(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)在這種情形下都只能減記其債務(wù)。”

考慮到歐洲銀行境況不佳，歐盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)幾乎停滯，因此歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在向俄國發(fā)動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)時(shí)舉棋不定，也就不足為奇了，盡管他們已經(jīng)受夠了普京的所作所為。