本屆G20峰會(huì)可能仍然令人失望

Hopes Are Low for G-20 Summit in Brisbane

本屆G20峰會(huì)可能仍然令人失望

FRANKFURT — It will shut down a city for two days, cost hundreds of millions of dollars and oblige 20 of the world’s top leaders to make long journeys to the east coast of Australia. So it would be a bit of a letdown if the Group of 20 summit meeting in Brisbane on Saturday and Sunday failed to accomplish very much.

法蘭克福——它讓一座城市停止運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)兩天，它耗費(fèi)的資金達(dá)數(shù)億美元，此外，它還迫使20位國家元首不遠(yuǎn)萬里來到澳大利亞東海岸。因此，如果本周末在布里斯班召開的20國集團(tuán)(Group of 20，簡(jiǎn)稱G20)峰會(huì)不能取得多大成就，那可有點(diǎn)讓人掃興。

Expectations are that the gathering will be a disappointment. Past summit meetings have fallen short of their goals, and the latest meeting will take place when collegiality among leaders is at a low ebb, strained by conflict in Ukraine, territorial disputes in Asia and war in the Middle East.

不過外界預(yù)測(cè)，這次峰會(huì)將以失望告終。以往的G20峰會(huì)均未能達(dá)成目標(biāo)，而本屆會(huì)議召開之際，各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的關(guān)系正處于低潮，造成他們關(guān)系緊張的因素包括，烏克蘭沖突、亞洲領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)議，以及中東的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

Failure of the G-20 meeting would be more than just a diplomatic setback for the countries involved, which include the United States, China, Russia, Japan, Germany and France. If they fail to coordinate their economic policies — the forum’s primary goal — the leaders will squander an opportunity to make the global economy grow faster and improve the living standards of millions of people, economists say.

如果本屆G20峰會(huì)失敗，將不光是與會(huì)各國在外交上的一次挫折。參會(huì)的成員國包括美國、中國、俄羅斯、日本、德國和法國等。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，如果無法協(xié)調(diào)各國的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策——這是峰會(huì)的主要目標(biāo)——這些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將浪費(fèi)一個(gè)讓全球經(jīng)濟(jì)更快增長(zhǎng)并改善無數(shù)人生活水平的機(jī)會(huì)。

John P. Lipsky, former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has said that the Brisbane summit meeting is a make-or-break moment for the G-20. If the leaders fail to achieve anything concrete, or fail to follow up later, it will raise questions about whether they are capable of working together in service of global prosperity, Mr. Lipsky told an audience in Melbourne this year. During a recent telephone interview, he did not sound optimistic.

國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund，簡(jiǎn)稱IMF)前第一副總裁約翰·P·利普斯基(John P. Lipsky)稱，此次布里斯班峰會(huì)對(duì)于G20是一次成敗攸關(guān)的機(jī)會(huì)。他今年在墨爾本發(fā)表演講時(shí)曾表示，如果G20的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人無法達(dá)成任何實(shí)質(zhì)性成果，或者未能在會(huì)后有效跟進(jìn)，將會(huì)引發(fā)對(duì)他們能否共同服務(wù)于全球繁榮的質(zhì)疑。在最近的電話采訪中，他似乎并不樂觀。

“In the way of these summits, agreements will be announced on all the principal agenda items,” Mr. Lipsky said by phone from Washington. “What remains to be seen is whether the specifics will be sufficiently credible and whether they will receive strong enough political backing by the G-20 leaders to make them politically convincing as well.”

“按照峰會(huì)的安排，各國將宣布就各項(xiàng)主要議程達(dá)成共識(shí)，”利普斯基在華盛頓通過電話表示。“仍需拭目以待的是，協(xié)議的具體內(nèi)容是否足夠可信?它們能否得到20國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人足夠的政治支持，從而在政治上同樣令人信服?”

The G-20 nations held their first summit meeting in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, when the world was in danger of falling into economic depression.

首屆G20峰會(huì)召開于2008年金融危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期。當(dāng)時(shí)，全球正面臨著陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的危險(xiǎn)。

Initially, the leaders, including those from developing countries like Brazil and India that had been excluded from the Group of 7 summit meetings — focused on creating a financial system less vulnerable to the kind of crisis that was then raging. Later, a more ambitious goal evolved — coordinating economic policies with the aim of lifting world growth.

起初，G20的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人只是想打造一個(gè)不那么容易受到當(dāng)時(shí)正在肆虐的危機(jī)影響的金融體系。后來，他們有了一個(gè)更宏偉的目標(biāo)——協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，促進(jìn)全球增長(zhǎng)。G20包括了一些七國集團(tuán)(Group of 7)之外的發(fā)展中國家，如巴西和印度。

World leaders would work together to remove the roadblocks to economic progress, including corruption, trade restrictions and regulations that discourage hiring and firing. Countries would spend more on research and development, create more equitable tax systems, and invest in public infrastructure like transit systems.

各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人決心共同掃除經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的障礙，包括腐敗、貿(mào)易限制措施，以及阻礙勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的監(jiān)管規(guī)定。他們打算在研發(fā)領(lǐng)域投入更多資金，建立更加公平合理的稅收體系，并且投資運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)等公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

The stakes were big. In 2010, the I.M.F. estimated that if the 20 leaders could follow through on their commitments, global growth would have been 2.5 percentage points higher. The extra economic output would be worth $1.5 trillion, the I.M.F. said, while 30 million new jobs would be created and 33 million people would escape poverty.

它的意義非同小可。2010年，IMF估計(jì)，如果20國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能夠貫徹他們的承諾，全球增長(zhǎng)本來可以高出2.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。IMF稱，這意味著增加1.5萬億美元(約合9萬億元人民幣)的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出，與此同時(shí)，還可以新增3000萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位，并讓3300萬人擺脫貧困。

The I.M.F. also sketched out a worst-case scenario in which members of the G-20 did not follow through on their promises and growth missed forecasts. The difference between the best-case and worst-case scenarios was $4 trillion in output and 52 million jobs.

IMF也預(yù)計(jì)了最糟糕的情形，即20國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沒有履行承諾，增長(zhǎng)低于預(yù)期。它與最好情形的差距是4萬億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出，以及5200萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位。

In fact, it was the worst-case scenario that proved to be the more accurate prediction. If anything, Mr. Lipsky said, it was too optimistic.

事實(shí)證明，最糟的情形成了更為準(zhǔn)確的推斷。利普斯基表示，甚至可以說這種看法還是過于樂觀。

Strictly speaking, the G-20 is not a forum to achieve rapprochement with Russia over Ukraine or adjudicate conflicting claims to waters in the South China Sea. The G-20 is supposed to be about economics and finance. The United Nations is supposed to be responsible for geopolitical issues.

嚴(yán)格來講，G20并不是一個(gè)用來在烏克蘭問題上與俄羅斯恢復(fù)友好關(guān)系，或者對(duì)多國在南海水域存在沖突的主張做出裁定的論壇。G20的關(guān)注點(diǎn)應(yīng)該是經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融。聯(lián)合國才應(yīng)該對(duì)地緣政治問題負(fù)責(zé)。

But heightened tensions will inevitably affect the mood in the Brisbane convention center, where the leaders, 4,000 delegates and an estimated 3,000 media representatives will gather. Security precautions will be even more intense than usual because of conflict in Syria and Iraq and heightened fear of terrorism. A public holiday has been declared in Brisbane for Friday.

但是，升級(jí)的緊張氛圍將不可避免地對(duì)布里斯班會(huì)議中心的情緒造成影響。屆時(shí)，20國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、4000名代表和大約3000名媒體人士將在這里齊聚一堂。由于發(fā)生在敘利亞和伊拉克的沖突，以及人們對(duì)恐怖主義的擔(dān)憂加劇，此次會(huì)議的安全防范會(huì)比以往更加嚴(yán)格。周五，布里斯班將進(jìn)行公休。

The government of Australia will spend 400 million Australian dollars, or about $350 million, hosting the event, according to local press reports. That figure does not include what the G-20 leaders and their entourages will spend during the meeting.

據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)孛襟w報(bào)道，澳大利亞政府將斥資4億澳元(約合3.5億美元)來舉辦這次活動(dòng)。這個(gè)數(shù)目還不包括G20領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和他們的隨從人員在會(huì)議期間的開銷。

The summit meeting is the culmination of intense preparation by officials below the rank of head of state. In September, central bank governors and finance ministers from the G-20 countries met in Cairns, farther up Australia’s eastern coast, and agreed to a range of measures designed to add 1.8 percent to global growth by 2018. This included more investment in public works and measures to combat tax evasion.

峰會(huì)召開之前，國家元首以下各個(gè)級(jí)別的官員進(jìn)行了緊鑼密鼓的籌備工作。9月，G20成員國的央行行長(zhǎng)和財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)在位于澳大利亞東海岸更北面的凱恩斯會(huì)面，就旨在到2018年將全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提升1.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的一系列舉措達(dá)成了共識(shí)。其中包括對(duì)公共工程進(jìn)行更多投資，以及一些打擊逃稅行為的措施。

But such high-minded policy declarations often prove to be inconsistent with the domestic politics of individual members. Germany, for example, has been reluctant to spend more fixing roads and bridges, even though the government has a budget surplus and can borrow money on international financial markets at interest rates close to zero. Cautious German voters would rather save than invest in, say, their country’s overcrowded public universities.

然而，事實(shí)證明，這些雄心勃勃的政策聲明往往與單個(gè)成員國的國內(nèi)政策相左。例如，德國就一直不愿意在修繕路橋方面增加開支，盡管政府預(yù)算存在盈余，而且還能以接近零利率的水平從國際金融市場(chǎng)借貸。謹(jǐn)慎的德國選民寧愿把錢存起來，也不愿意對(duì)諸如過度擁擠的公立大學(xué)之類的領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行投資。

Even under the best of circumstances, the G-20 is an unwieldy group. Unlike the G-7, whose members are all wealthy democracies, the G-20 includes authoritarian countries like China and poor countries like India. But is it all just a waste of time and money?

即便在最佳狀態(tài)下，G20仍然是個(gè)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)不靈的組織。與成員均為富裕民主國家的G7不同，G20包括中國這樣的威權(quán)國家和印度這樣的貧窮國家。那么，G20是否只是在浪費(fèi)時(shí)間和金錢呢?

The G-20 has arguably had a significant impact in addressing one pressing global issue: the fragility of the financial system. G-20 support has been crucial in addressing the problem of banks that are too big to fail, an underlying cause of the financial crisis that brought the world leaders to Washington in 2008 for the first summit meeting. Another likely outcome of the Brisbane gathering will be to endorse rules that further strengthen banks’ ability to absorb losses.

在處理一個(gè)緊迫的國際議題方面，G20可以說是產(chǎn)生了巨大影響。這個(gè)議題就是金融體系的脆弱性。G20的支持對(duì)于應(yīng)對(duì)那些“大到不能倒”的銀行的問題十分重要，而此類問題就是這輪金融危機(jī)的潛在誘因。由于這場(chǎng)危機(jī)，各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人2008年在華盛頓召開了首次G20峰會(huì)。布里斯班會(huì)議另一項(xiàng)可能的成果是，讓各國承諾支持進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)銀行承擔(dān)損失能力的規(guī)章。

“Has the G-20 done enough to support a vision of well-functioning, integrated financial markets? I would say no,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. But he said the progress on bank regulation “has been useful.”

“G20是否已經(jīng)為支持一個(gè)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好、完整統(tǒng)一的金融市場(chǎng)做出了足夠努力?我認(rèn)為沒有，”在位于布魯塞爾的布勒哲爾國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Bruegel)任高級(jí)研究員的尼古拉斯·韋龍(Nicolas Véron)說。但是他表示，銀行監(jiān)管方面的進(jìn)展“起到了作用”。