希拉里會因“郵件門”調(diào)查而落選嗎？

在距離大選投票日不到兩周之際，美國聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)投下了“震撼彈”。據(jù)報道，F(xiàn)BI于美國當?shù)貢r間10月28日重啟對于民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人希拉里?克林頓“郵件門”的調(diào)查，目前調(diào)查還沒有進展。而最新民調(diào)顯示，事件對于希拉里選情的影響已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)，希拉里的支持率僅僅領(lǐng)先對手共和黨人唐納德?特朗普1%。這會不會是今年大選的“十月驚奇”?希拉里真的危險了嗎?

A week ago, the US election looked to be over.

一星期以前，美國大選看似勝負已定。

Hillary Clinton was riding so high in the polls after a disastrous series of gaffes by Donald Trump that few could conceive of a Republican path to victory on 8 November. Fridays intervention by the FBI may not be enough to change that outcome on its own, but it has certainly set political imaginations running wild.

隨著唐納德•特朗普的屢次災(zāi)難性失態(tài)，希拉里•克林頓在民意調(diào)查中的人氣扶搖直上，若論11月8日的總統(tǒng)大選，所有人都認為共和黨氣數(shù)已盡。周五，聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局的突然介入雖不至于扭轉(zhuǎn)局勢，卻也足夠掀起人民對政壇的各種臆測了。

The worry for Democrats is that fresh inquiries regarding Clintons use of a private email server while secretary of state come at a difficult time.

近期希拉里因擔任國務(wù)卿期間使用私人郵箱服務(wù)器而重新遭到調(diào)查，民主黨對此憂心忡忡，因為這來得太不是時候了。

Not only is it hard to prove a negative and re-establish her innocence with barely a week to go until the election, but the letter to congressional officials from director James Comey capped a tricky run of news that was already making a sizable dent in her polling lead.

他們的擔憂并不僅僅是因為苦于要在大選前短短一周的時候承認負面新聞并重新建立希拉里的清白形象，也是因為聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局局長詹姆斯•科米寫給國會官員的信件已經(jīng)成為一條棘手的新聞，并給希拉里在民調(diào)中的領(lǐng)先地位造成了不小的負面影響。

Momentum for Trump began to recover first thanks to another set of emails, the contents of which perhaps explain why the Clintons risked so much to try to retain control of her electronic communications in the first place.

多虧了另一組郵件，特朗普的勢頭第一次開始復(fù)蘇。這些郵件似乎解釋了克林頓夫婦不惜冒險也要在第一時間奪回希拉里郵箱賬號的理由。

Released by WikiLeaks, a factor that US intelligence agencies have blamed on Russian hackers, these emails to and from campaign chairman John Podesta have been trickling out for weeks, with mostly embarrassing rather than damaging content.

郵件的發(fā)布者是維基解密，美國情報機構(gòu)據(jù)此將郵件的泄露歸咎于俄羅斯黑客。這些希拉里與其競選主席約翰•波德斯塔的往來郵件數(shù)周來被陸續(xù)泄露，其中大部分內(nèi)容與其說是有損形象，不如說是令人尷尬。

That changed on Wednesday with the release of a report that appeared to confirm just how much the Clinton family has blurred the boundaries between its business, charitable and political interests.

但周三的報告一泄露，情況就不一樣了。這份報告似乎能證實克林頓家族將商業(yè)、公益和政治利益混為一談的程度有多嚴重。

Though almost all of the new information related to Bill rather than Hillary, it gave Trump supporters fresh ammunition at a moment when they were desperate to shift attention from their candidate's own scandals over taxes and alleged inappropriate behaviour towards women.

雖然這些新消息大多數(shù)有關(guān)比爾•克林頓而不是希拉里•克林頓，但也讓特朗普支持者們暫時重新振作，將選民的注意力從特朗普避稅、發(fā)表侮辱女性言論等丑聞上面轉(zhuǎn)移。

In an election that many pollsters describe as an unpopularity contest, it does not take much to swing the mood of independent voters.

民意調(diào)查專家將這場選舉稱為不得人心的競選，因此騎墻派選民很容易動搖。

By Friday, the combination of no news from Trump and bad news from Clinton had halved her average lead in the polls since the last presidential debate.

截至星期五，由于特朗普沒什么特別的新聞，而希拉里卻爆出了丑聞，自上次總統(tǒng)競選辯論以來，她在民意調(diào)查中的平均優(yōu)勢已經(jīng)減半。

"When the attention was on Trump, Clinton was winning. Now, the attention is on Clinton", said political consultant Frank Luntz, who has predicted the winner in 2016 will be the campaign that keeps the focus on its opponent.

“過去民眾的注意力集中在特朗普身上時，希拉里的支持率節(jié)節(jié)攀升。可如今，焦點卻在希拉里身上。”政治顧問弗蘭克•倫茨說。他預(yù)測2016年大選的獲勝者，將是把民眾焦點集中在對手身上的一位。

Sundays average lead for Clinton in national polls of 3.4% ought still to be a healthy safety margin.

周日的全國民意調(diào)查顯示，希拉里仍然保持著3.4%的平均領(lǐng)先率，尚在安全范圍內(nèi)。

Bill Clintons lead over George Bush shrank from 11 points to just three in the last two weeks of the 1992 election, yet he won by nearly double that margin.

在1992年的總統(tǒng)競選中，比爾•克林頓對老布什的平均領(lǐng)先率在最后兩個星期從11%降至僅僅3%，但最后他卻以近6%的優(yōu)勢取勝。

But among Democrats, a cause for concern if not yet panic is that very few polls published so far were carried out after news broke about the FBI and the emails.

但是對于民主黨來說，還有一個因素值得憂心，甚至可能值得恐慌，那就是目前公布的民意測驗結(jié)果中，只有極少部分的投票是在有關(guān)聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局和郵件的丑聞爆發(fā)后進行的。

One reputable survey that got close, an ABC News-Washington Post tracking poll released on Sunday, showed just a one-point overall lead for Clinton.

美國廣播公司新聞網(wǎng)和《華盛頓郵報》聯(lián)合進行的民意跟蹤調(diào)查則更精確。周日，這項值得信賴的民調(diào)發(fā)布的結(jié)果顯示，希拉里的全國平均支持率僅僅領(lǐng)先一個百分點。

It asked some voters on Friday evening what they thought and found the news had mostly hardened existing opinions but could also play a role at the margins.

調(diào)查者在周五晚上詢問了一些選民的看法，發(fā)現(xiàn)丑聞雖然主要堅定了選民原本的想法，但也會對支持率產(chǎn)生微弱的影響。

"About a third of likely voters say they are less likely to support Clinton given FBI director James Comeys disclosure", said pollster Gary Langer.

“大約有三分之一的潛在選民說在詹姆斯•科米的曝光后，他們不太想要支持希拉里了，”民意調(diào)查員加里•蘭格說。

"Given other considerations, 63% say it makes no difference". Only 7% of Clinton supporters felt it would make any difference, but this rises "much higher among groups already predisposed not to vote for her", the poll found.

“還有63%的潛在選民說，考慮到其他因素，丑聞不影響他們的投票。”民意調(diào)查顯示，只有7%的希拉里支持者覺得丑聞對他們有影響，但是這些影響“在原本就不打算投票給希拉里的人群中反響要大得多”。

"The potential for a pullback in motivation of Clinton supporters, or further resurgence among Trumps, may cause concern in the Clinton camp especially because this dynamic already was under way", Langer added.

“希拉里陣營可能會關(guān)注希拉里支持者變心的可能性，以及特朗普陣營的進一步復(fù)蘇——尤其是在當下這種態(tài)勢已經(jīng)萌芽的情況下。”蘭格補充道。

"Intention to vote has grown in Trump support groups in the past week as the intensity of criticisms about him has ebbed."

“隨著批評特朗普的聲音減少，過去一周特朗普陣營的投票意向人數(shù)正在增加。”

This CBS poll showed just 5% of Democrats said the issue might make them less likely to support Clinton, compared with more than a quarter of registered Republicans.

哥倫比亞廣播公司的民調(diào)顯示只有5%的民主黨人士認為這一事件會降低他們對希拉里的支持度。相比之下，超過25%的登記在冊的共和黨人對此表示肯定。

This risk also helps explain the ferocity of Democratic calls for the FBI to urgently exonerate Clinton.

支持率下滑的風險也解釋了為什么民主黨義憤填膺地要求聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局立刻為希拉里平反。

Many loyalists are convinced the latest trove of emails, discovered on equipment shared by Clinton aide Huma Abedin and her estranged husband Anthony Weiner, are an irrelevance.

許多希拉里的死忠支持者堅信最近在希拉里的心腹胡瑪•阿貝丁及其分居的丈夫安東尼•韋納用的電子設(shè)備中發(fā)現(xiàn)的郵件內(nèi)容只是些細枝末節(jié)。

Even if some show more classified information passed its way through the private server, it should not change the FBIs earlier decision that a criminal charge would be unfair without evidence of intent or coverup.

即使其中有些證據(jù)顯示希拉里通過私人服務(wù)器發(fā)送了更為機密的信息，這也不會讓聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局改變想法，將這件事定性為犯罪。因為在缺少犯罪意圖和掩蓋罪行行為的情況下就提起刑事訴訟是不公平的。

But so long as this is not categorically established, there may be a nagging doubt in some minds that the FBI suspects otherwise.

但是只要這件事情還沒有蓋棺定論，又會有流言蜚語說聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局另有疑慮。

Not everyone will be prepared to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt.

并不是所有人都準備在這件事上放過希拉里。

Some studies have shown just 11% of voters describe Clinton as "honest and trustworthy", lower even than Trumps score of 16%.

某些研究顯示只有11%的選民認為希拉里“誠實可信”，比特朗普的16%還要低。

While it may not be enough to the tip the balance, running for president while facing potential criminal investigation is never a good look.

盡管“郵件門”的影響還沒到扭轉(zhuǎn)局勢的地步，但在競選總統(tǒng)期間遭到刑事調(diào)查終歸不是一件體面的事。