馬來西亞總理會否成為杜特爾特第二？

Malaysia’s prime minister will explore deeper defence and economic co-operation with China on a state visit this week, at a time when concern is deepening in the west over Beijing’s attempts to dislodge Asian countries from Washington’s orbit.

馬來西亞總理將在本周對中國進行國事訪問期間探索同中國發(fā)展更深層次的國防和經(jīng)濟合作。目前西方日益擔憂北京方面試圖使亞洲國家脫離華盛頓軌道。

Najib Razak’s trip to China follows a thaw in diplomatic relations between China and the Philippines, with President Rodrigo Duterte declaring his country’s “separation” from the US on a visit to Beijing last month.

納吉布•拉扎克(Najib Razak)訪問中國之前，中國和菲律賓之間的外交關(guān)系解凍，羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)總統(tǒng)在上月訪問北京期間宣告他的國家與美國“分離”。

Among Malaysia’s aims is the negotiation of a deal to purchase coastal patrol ships from China in what would be the first significant defence equipment contract between the two countries. If confirmed, the deal is likely to ruffle feathers among the US and its allies.

馬來西亞方面的目標包括談判達成從中國采購近海巡邏艇的協(xié)議，這將是兩國之間的第一份重大防務裝備合同。如果得到證實，這筆交易很可能引發(fā)美國及其盟國不快。

“This is in direct competition with US and Japanese attempts to sell this kind of defence technology,” said Alex Neill, an Asia-Pacific security fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Singapore.

“這與美國和日本銷售這種防務技術(shù)的嘗試構(gòu)成直接競爭，”新加坡國際戰(zhàn)略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)亞太安全問題研究員亞歷克斯•尼爾(Alex Neill)表示。

Although Malaysia is one of several claimants to disputed reefs and islands in the South China Sea, its response to China’s expansive claims over the area has generally been to avoid confrontation. Malaysian ministers have occasionally bristled over China’s claims, but Mr Najib has emphasised moderation.

雖然馬來西亞是南中國海爭議島礁和島嶼的幾個聲索國之一，但該國對中國在該地區(qū)擴張性主權(quán)主張的回應總體上是回避對抗。馬來西亞的部長級官員偶爾會抨擊中國的主張，但納吉布本人一直強調(diào)克制。

Military relations between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur have grown warmer recently, with the first joint military exercise conducted last year in the Strait of Malacca.

北京和吉隆坡之間的軍事關(guān)系近期升溫，去年兩國在馬六甲海峽進行了第一次聯(lián)合軍事演習。

Malaysia’s defence minister Hishammuddin Hussein, who is accompanying Mr Najib to China, announced the purchase of Chinese naval patrol craft in a Facebook post that was later removed.

陪同納吉布訪華的馬來西亞國防部長希沙姆丁•侯賽因(Hishammuddin Hussein)，曾在Facebook上宣布采購中國海軍巡邏艇，但這個帖子隨后被刪除。

Analysts are speaking about a “Duterte effect” across Asia as Beijing seeks to pry countries away from Washington and coax them into its orbit, using its economic weight in the region as leverage.

分析人士正在談論席卷亞洲的“杜特爾特效應”，即北京方面試圖把一個又一個國家撬離華盛頓的盟友圈子，并把中國在該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟份量用作杠桿，推動這些國家進入中國的軌道。

“Now Malaysia seems like a wobbly domino,” said Euan Graham, director of the Lowy Institute in Sydney. “It lends itself to a pessimistic reading that there is a broader accommodation with China across Southeast Asia.”

“現(xiàn)在馬來西亞看上去像是一塊搖搖欲墜的多米諾骨牌，”悉尼洛伊國際政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)主任尤安•格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示。“這意味著令人悲觀的解讀是，東南亞國家在普遍遷就中國。”

Malaysia and China have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, but they have rarely come into conflict because Malaysia’s claims lie far in the south, away from China’s recent efforts to build islands out of rocks and coral reefs further north.

馬來西亞和中國在南中國海的主權(quán)聲索范圍有重疊部分，但兩國很少發(fā)生沖突，因為馬來西亞聲索的部分在南中國海的最南端，與中國近期建造人工島的島礁和珊瑚礁所在的北部相距較遠。

However, Malaysia’s coast guard in March announced that about 100 Chinese fishing vessels had been detected encroaching in Malaysia’s waters in the disputed sea, a signal that China is likely to press its maritime claims.

然而，馬來西亞海事執(zhí)法局曾在今年3月宣布，約有100艘中國漁船被發(fā)現(xiàn)侵入爭議海域的馬來西亞水域，這個信號表明中國有可能重提其海事主張。

Neighbouring Singapore and Vietnam have both moved to strengthen defence ties with the US, with Singapore allowing the deployment of Poseidon spy planes and exploring training opportunities for its armed forces on the US Pacific territory of Guam.

鄰近的新加坡和越南都加強了與美國的防務關(guān)系，新加坡允許美國部署“海神”(Poseidon)反潛巡邏機，并探索讓新加坡軍隊在關(guān)島(美國太平洋屬地)進行培訓的可能性。

Mr Duterte, in contrast, signed $13.5bn of deals and investments on a trip to China this month during which he announced “springtime” in relations between Beijing and Manila.

相比之下，杜特爾特在上月訪華期間簽署了135億美元的協(xié)議和投資，其間他還宣告北京和馬尼拉之間的關(guān)系進入“春天”。

Mustafa Izzuddin, fellow at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Malaysia was pursuing a “balanced” approach to China that combined protecting its interests in the South China Sea with strengthening economic relations.

新加坡尤索夫伊薩東南亞研究院(ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)研究員穆斯塔法•伊茲丁(Mustafa Izzuddin)表示，馬來西亞正尋求對中國采取一種“平衡”姿態(tài)，在加強經(jīng)濟關(guān)系的同時保護其在南中國海的利益。

China is Malaysia’s biggest trading partner, while tourism from China has rebounded after a fall in the wake of the disappearance of the Beijing-bound Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 in 2014.

中國是馬來西亞最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，而中國赴馬來西亞旅游的人數(shù)在2014年飛往北京的馬航MH370航班失蹤后一度下降，但現(xiàn)已反彈。

At home, Mr Najib has been buffeted by claims that billions of dollars were looted from state investment fund 1MDB. The scandal has strained relations between Malaysia and the US, where federal prosecutors have moved to seize assets allegedly bought with misappropriated cash.

納吉布在國內(nèi)飽受非議，他被指從國家投資基金1MDB侵吞了巨額美元的資金。這一丑聞使馬來西亞和美國之間的關(guān)系變得緊張，美國聯(lián)邦檢察官已采取行動，扣押據(jù)稱用貪污資金購買的資產(chǎn)。

Mr Neill said: “If Najib finds himself in the crosshairs [of a US investigation], his natural inclination might be to lean towards China.”

新加坡國際戰(zhàn)略研究所的尼爾表示：“如果納吉布發(fā)現(xiàn)自己成了美國的調(diào)查對象，倒向中國可能是他的自然傾向。”