美國民調(diào)結(jié)果收窄震蕩金融市場

Tightening polls just a week before the US presidential election sent tremors through financial markets yesterday, as investors rethought their long-held bet on a Hillary Clinton victory.

美國大選投票一周前不斷收窄的民調(diào)結(jié)果昨日給金融市場帶來震蕩，投資者開始反思他們長期以來押注希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)獲勝的觀點。

The Vix index, a measure of expected US stock market volatility known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, neared highs last seen in the aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the EU this summer.

有華爾街“恐懼指標”之稱的美國股市預(yù)期波動衡量工具Vix指數(shù)，接近今夏英國公投退出歐盟后出現(xiàn)過的高點。

Gold, regarded as the ultimate haven, rose sharply while the Mexican peso — a barometer of election sentiment because of Donald Trump’s pledge to build a wall along the US’s southern ­border — fell 2.1 per cent against the ­dollar in volatile trading.

被視為終極避風(fēng)港的黃金價格急劇上漲，而墨西哥比索兌美元匯率——由于唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)誓言要在美國南部邊境建起高墻，因此這一匯率成了美國選情的晴雨表——在震蕩交易中下滑了2.1%。

“With the Brexit trading experience in recent memory, it seems that some traders don’t want to be caught off side again and have started to act,” said Colin Cieszynski at CMC Markets.

“以最近英國退歐交易經(jīng)驗來看，一些交易商似乎不想再被打個措手不及，因此已開始行動，”CMC Markets的柯林•切申斯基(Colin Cieszynski)稱。

Investors see Mrs Clinton as heralding less uncertainty for markets, partly because her long political career means her policies are seen as more predictable. Fresh polls in the wake of a new FBI probe into her use of a private email server have challenged assumptions about her chances of winning.

投資者認為希拉里預(yù)示著較少的市場不確定性，部分是因為她長期的政治生涯意味著她的政策被視為更容易預(yù)見。在美國聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)對希拉里利用私人電子郵件服務(wù)器開啟新一輪調(diào)查后，最新的民調(diào)結(jié)果對她獲勝機會的假設(shè)形成了挑戰(zhàn)。

A Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll published yesterday showed Mr Trump with a one-point lead over Mrs Clinton nationally, the first time the Republican has held a lead in that poll since May. In the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, Mrs Clinton now leads Mr Trump by just 2.2 points — down from a 7-point lead two weeks ago.

昨天公布的《華盛頓郵報》/美國廣播公司新聞部(Washington Post-ABC News)民調(diào)顯示，在全美范圍內(nèi)特朗普的支持率比希拉里領(lǐng)先1個百分點，這是自5月以來特朗普首次在民調(diào)中取得領(lǐng)先。同時RealClearPolitics對最近民調(diào)計算的平均值顯示，希拉里僅領(lǐng)先特朗普2.2個百分點——而兩周前她領(lǐng)先7個百分點。

The Trump campaign has seized on the changing race by battering Mrs Clinton on core issues such as Obamacare premiums and arguing that voters will face four years of federal probes and Washington gridlock if they send Mrs Clinton to the White House.

特朗普競選陣營抓住選情變化的契機，在“奧巴馬醫(yī)改”(Obamacare)保費等核心問題上痛擊希拉里，并提出如果選民把希拉里送入白宮，他們將面臨4年的聯(lián)邦調(diào)查和華盛頓僵局。

“If we don’t repeal and replace Obamacare we will destroy American healthcare forever,” Mr Trump said yesterday at rally in Pennsylvania.

“如果我們不廢除并取代‘奧巴馬醫(yī)改’，我們將徹底毀掉美國醫(yī)保制度，”特朗普昨天在賓夕法尼亞州的競選集會上表示。

In the final week, Mr Trump has announced plans to spend $25m on ads in more than a dozen states, while both candidates are spending a significant amount of time in Florida, a state the Trump campaign has acknowledged it must take if it has any hope of winning. Mrs Clinton toured the state yesterday while Mr Trump is due to arrive today.

在最后一周，特朗普宣布計劃斥資2500萬美元在在十多個州打廣告，同時兩位候選人都在佛羅里達州花費了大量時間。特朗普陣營承認，要贏得大選，他們必須拿下佛羅里達州。希拉里昨天在佛羅里達州競選，而特朗普預(yù)計將于今天抵達。

“Markets are now going to have to recalibrate for a coin toss outcome versus what they thought was a sure thing,” said Nicholas Colas at Convergex.

“市場現(xiàn)在必須重新掂量不確定的大選結(jié)果，而不再是他們認為板上釘釘?shù)慕Y(jié)果，”Convergex的尼古拉斯•克拉斯(Nicholas Colas)稱。

US equities were in a broad decline yesterday, with the S&P 500 sliding 0.75 per cent. The benchmark was set to close in the red for the sixth day in a row, its longest losing streak since August 2015, a time of tumult over China.

昨天美國股市全面下跌，準普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)下滑0.75%。該指數(shù)勢必將出現(xiàn)連續(xù)六天下降，這是自2015年8月中國股市動蕩以來該指數(shù)最長的連跌。

Gold was up more than 1 per cent. “That’s not to say people are rushing out to buy Krugerrands over fear of a Trump victory, but more that all risk assets are recalibrating,”

Mr Colas said. 黃金價格上漲超過1%。“這并不是說人們由于擔(dān)心特朗普獲勝而急于購買克魯格金幣，而是所有風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)都在重新調(diào)整，”克拉斯稱。