美國大選令市場躁動不安

Two weeks ago Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker, felt so confident that Hillary Clinton would win the US presidential election that it started paying punters who had bet on her victory.

兩周前，愛爾蘭博彩公司Paddy Power對希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)將贏得美國總統(tǒng)大選信心滿滿，以至于開始向押注希拉里獲勝的顧客支付獎金。

Big mistake. This week Donald Trump’s chance of success, according to the Iowa Electronic Markets, has jumped from 10 per cent to about 40 per cent following revelations that the Federal Bureau of Investigation is re-opening its probe into Mrs Clinton’s emails.

它犯了大錯。愛荷華電子市場(Iowa Electronic Markets)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)正在重啟對希拉里“郵件門”調(diào)查的消息傳出之后，本周，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的勝選幾率已從10%躍升至40%左右。

So PaddyPower has done a volte-face and reopened its books. Right now, 2/1 odds are being offered on the Republican, and “91 per cent of bets on the US election [this week] have been on Trump”, the betting group says. As a spokesman observes: “I think the shock of Brexit is fresh in people’s minds.”

所以，PaddyPower掉轉(zhuǎn)頭，重開賭局。目前，特朗普獲勝的賠率為2/1，該博彩集團稱，“(本周)91%對美國大選的下注都押特朗普贏”。正如該集團一位發(fā)言人所言：“我覺得英國退歐造成的沖擊讓人們記憶猶新。”

A similar about-turn is under way in the financial world. Until this week many asset managers were discounting a Trump victory. Even now groups such as Goldman Sachs continue to stress that this risk is low: the bank puts Mr Trump’s chances at about half that of Mrs Clinton. “The election is now seen to be roughly as uncertain as the average election since 1992,” according to Goldman’s Alec Phillips.

類似立場反轉(zhuǎn)也正出現(xiàn)在金融領(lǐng)域。直至本周，許多資產(chǎn)管理公司都認為特朗普不會獲勝。一些機構(gòu)，如高盛(Goldman Sachs)，直到現(xiàn)在還在繼續(xù)強調(diào)特朗普勝出的風(fēng)險很低：該投行認為特朗普獲勝的幾率只有希拉里的一半左右。高盛的亞歷克•菲利普斯(Alec Phillips)表示：“此次大選的不確定性，現(xiàn)在被視為跟1992年以來正常情況下的大選大致相同。”

But that low risk is still too high for some investors. “A Trump presidency . . . could spark a sustained period of risk aversion,” says Mihir Kapadia, chief executive of Sun Global Investments, a London asset group.

但這種低風(fēng)險對一些投資者而言還是太高。“特朗普當選總統(tǒng)……可能引發(fā)持續(xù)一段時間的風(fēng)險規(guī)避，”倫敦資產(chǎn)管理集團Sun Global Investments首席執(zhí)行官米希爾•卡帕迪亞(Mihir Kapadia)表示。

Investors are scrambling to readjust their portfolios. Barclays, for example, estimates the S&P 500 index could rise or fall 1.5 per cent for every 10 percentage point swing in the polls. If the chance of Mr Trump winning hits 50-50 they expect the S&P to fall 4-5 per cent; a Trump victory could spark a fall of 11-13 per cent.

投資機構(gòu)正在趕著重新調(diào)整自己的投資組合。例如，巴克萊銀行(Barclays)估計，民調(diào)每出現(xiàn)10個百分點的波動，標準普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)就會上漲或下跌1.5%。如果特朗普獲勝的幾率達到50%，他們預(yù)計標普指數(shù)將下跌4%至5%;而特朗普獲勝可能引發(fā)11%至13%的大跌。

That is unnerving. The markets are also affected by the fact that the events of recent days mean that the outlook for Washington after November 8 is no longer binary. On the contrary, the risks that investors are being forced to price involve several highly complex moving parts.

這令人不安。金融市場還受到了以下事實的影響，即近幾天發(fā)生的事件意味著，11月8日后華盛頓可能面臨的局面將不再是二選一的。相反，投資者眼下正被迫對其定價的那些風(fēng)險，涉及多個高度復(fù)雜、環(huán)環(huán)相扣的因素。

Think about it. Back in June the EU referendum gave UK voters two options: In or Out. Subsequently, it became clear that the Out choice threw up a range of scenarios, complicated further by the need for a UK parliamentary vote before Article 50 is triggered. Even so the vote was a “crossroads” — and could be modelled for investors as such.

仔細想想這件事。今年6月的英國公投給了選民兩個選擇：去或是留。隨后變得明顯的是，退歐的選擇拋出了一系列可能的場景，而觸發(fā)《里斯本條約》第50條還須先經(jīng)英國議會投票又使問題進一步復(fù)雜化。即使如此，那次公投也是一種“十字路口”型選擇——并且可以按照這種形態(tài)為投資者建模。

In the US election, however, the potential scenarios look more like a “fan chart of probabilities”. Yes, the presidential choice seems binary: Mrs Clinton or Mr Trump. But, given the vagaries of the electoral college system, the outcome need not match the popular vote.

然而，在美國大選中，潛在的場景看起來更像一個“概率扇形圖”。沒錯，總統(tǒng)似乎只能二選其一：希拉里或特朗普。但是，考慮到選舉人團制度的難以預(yù)料，大選結(jié)果不一定非要與普選投票結(jié)果相吻合。

Meanwhile the rise of a third-party candidate, Evan McMullin in Utah, creates the (smallish) risk that neither Mr Trump nor Mrs Clinton will win a simple majority of electoral colleges.

與此同時，第三方候選人埃文•麥克馬林(Evan McMullin)在猶他州的崛起，帶來了特朗普和希拉里都無法贏得過半選舉人票的風(fēng)險——盡管這種風(fēng)險微乎其微。

In addition, the outcome of the races in the Senate and House of Representatives could alter the implications of the presidential vote. If Mrs Clinton gains control of both, for example, her policies might be dragged leftwards to appease figures such as Senator Elizabeth Warren.

此外，參眾兩院選舉結(jié)果也可能改變總統(tǒng)大選所能帶來的影響。例如，如果希拉里控制了兩院，她的政策就可能就會被迫向左傾斜，以安撫參議員伊麗莎白•沃倫(Elizabeth Warren)等人物。

Conversely, if control of the House and Senate is split, that could deliver more gridlock — unless Mrs Clinton is able to forge a new bipartisan spirit.

反過來，如果希拉里未能同時控制兩院，那就可能產(chǎn)生更多的僵局，除非希拉里能夠締造一種讓兩黨拋棄黨派之見的新精神。

There is yet another issue complicating these risk models: legal threats. If Mr Trump wins, he faces a court case over his “university”. This, in itself, is bizarre. But the danger hanging over Mrs Clinton is even more peculiar — and alarming.

還有一個問題讓這些風(fēng)險模型更加復(fù)雜，那就是法律威脅。如果特朗普贏得大選，他仍將面臨關(guān)于特朗普“大學(xué)”的官司。這本身就夠奇怪了，但懸在希拉里頭頂?shù)姆娠L(fēng)險還要更怪，也更為令人擔(dān)憂。

It looks likely that the reopened FBI probe will last weeks, if not months.

FBI重新啟動的調(diào)查可能會持續(xù)數(shù)周時間，甚至數(shù)月。

At best, that could distract and disrupt the next administration. At worst, it could unleash a full-blown constitutional crisis, akin to the Nixon scandals of 40 years ago.

在最好的情況下，這也可能分散和干擾下屆政府的注意力。在最壞的情況下，它可能引發(fā)類似40年前的尼克松丑聞那樣的全面憲法危機。

“The decline is not just because the stock market is nervous about Donald Trump,” says Capital Economics. “It also reflects the reality that even if Clinton now wins, her authority and mandate will be damaged.”

針對標普500指數(shù)在FBI重啟調(diào)查消息傳出后大幅下跌，凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)表示：“這一下跌不僅是因為唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)讓股市提心吊膽……它還反映出即便希拉里贏了，她的權(quán)威和授權(quán)也將遭到損害。”

So — while the shock result of Brexit might be haunting everyone’s minds — the dirty truth of markets today is that the risks thrown up by Brexit look almost simple compared with those of the US election.

因此，盡管人們對英國退歐的意外結(jié)果記憶猶新，但如今市場令人不快的真相是，與美國選舉帶來的風(fēng)險相比，英國退歐的風(fēng)險幾乎不值一提。

That is particularly true in a world where most investors are ill-placed to price scenarios that come in multiple shades of grey — and where no one can create an algorithm to model the antics of the FBI.

在一個大多數(shù)投資者應(yīng)付不來為不是非黑即白的多種場景定價、也沒有人能創(chuàng)造一個算法為不按常理出牌的FBI的舉動建模的世界里，情況尤其如此。

Brace yourself for further market turbulence.

準備好迎接進一步的市場動蕩吧。