從特朗普勝選看美國政治

The election of Donald Trump has triggered a thousand questions and much soul searching about America and the future of the west. Here are my initial takeaways based on five days in New York, including election night.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當選引發(fā)了人們的重重疑問和深刻反思，有些問題是關于美國的，有些問題是關于西方的未來的。以下是我在紐約逗留五天(包括大選之夜)得出的初步結(jié)論。

1) Cultural and identity politics are the common thread of instability running through the world right now.

1)文化及身份認同政治是當今世界不穩(wěn)定局勢的共同主線。

From Donald Trump’s triumph to Brexit and the rise of a new caliphate in the Middle East, the tension is likely to get worse before it gets better. In the US, Trump played on middle class and working class fears about immigration and cultural nostalgia for a bygone era in America. He brilliantly exploited anger about political correctness, especially among elites, including the mainstream media. Ultimately, as in Brexit Britain, identity politics may have “trumped” pocketbook politics.

從唐納德•特朗普在美國大選中獲勝到英國脫歐和中東新哈里發(fā)的崛起，緊張局勢可能會繼續(xù)惡化，然后才有望好轉(zhuǎn)。在美國，特朗普利用了中產(chǎn)和工薪階層對移民的恐懼和對一個逝去時代的文化懷舊。他成功地利用了民眾對政治正確、特別是精英階層(包括主流媒體)的政治正確的憤怒。最終，如脫歐的英國一樣，身份認同政治(identity politics)或許會“戰(zhàn)勝”錢包政治(pocketbook politics)。

2) The anti-globalisation movement is growing.

2)反全球化運動風頭日盛。

Mr Trump’s anti-free trade rhetoric was not challenged by Hillary Clinton. The elites, including the media, have become complacent about globalisation, failing to grasp the importance of defending the postwar liberal order, institutions and treaties which have underpinned growth and prosperity. Illiberal democrats such as Marine Le Pen in France and the AfD in Germany will take heart ahead of elections in 2017. Trump has shown that populism is not just framing the debate, it can win. The unthinkable is now possible.

特朗普的反自由貿(mào)易言論沒有受到希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的挑戰(zhàn)。包括媒體在內(nèi)的精英階層對全球化感到沾沾自喜，他們沒有明白維護戰(zhàn)后自由秩序、制度和條約——它們是增長和繁榮的基礎——的重要性。反自由的民主主義者，如法國的馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)和德國新選擇黨(AfD)，將在2017年選舉前受到鼓舞。特朗普已經(jīng)證明，民粹主義不僅正在左右辯論，而且還可以獲勝。以往不可想象的情況，現(xiàn)在已變得可能。

3) The parallels between Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan are overdone.

3)將唐納德•特朗普與羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)相提并論有些過了。

Trump has no previous political experience and he is a creature of reality TV and the moment. By the time he became president, Ronald Reagan had been a two-time governor of California and a trade union organiser in Hollywood. When he won the White House in 1980, Reagan had a political philosophy. He was the political leader of a low-tax, small-government movement. Mr Trump said in his victory speech that he too was head of a movement (not, interestingly, a party), but many of his positions on the economy and foreign policy are incoherent, contradictory and inherently high-risk.

特朗普毫無從政經(jīng)驗，他是電視真人秀和當下時代的產(chǎn)物。里根就任總統(tǒng)前，當過兩屆加利福尼亞州州長，還曾是好萊塢的一名工會組織者。1980年在總統(tǒng)選舉中獲勝時，里根已形成了自己的政治哲學。他是一場主張低稅、“小政府”的運動的政治領袖。特朗普在勝選演說中也說他是一場運動(有趣的是，并非某個政黨)的領袖，但他許多關于經(jīng)濟和外交政策的立場不一致、相互矛盾，從本質(zhì)上來說充滿風險。

4) There are huge questions about a Trump administration’s foreign policy.

4)關于特朗普政府的外交政策存在許多大問題。

Mr Trump loves to be liked, and his five favourite words are: “The art of the deal”. But a transactional foreign policy which places all bets on personal relationships and negotiating skills — rather than alliances and long-term policy planning — is a source of serious concern in Europe and Asia. His threat to undo the nuclear deal with Iran is high-risk too. In his first two years, he may well face a showdown with North Korea over its nuclear programme. His temperament and judgment will be put to the test.

特朗普喜歡被人喜歡，他最愛的五個字是：“交易的藝術”(The art of the deal)。但是，一種將所有賭注都押在個人關系和談判技巧、而非是聯(lián)盟和長期政策規(guī)劃上的交易式外交政策，會令歐洲和亞洲感到嚴重擔憂。他威脅撤銷與伊朗核協(xié)議的說法也隱含很大風險。在上任頭兩年，他可能圍繞朝鮮核計劃與對方攤牌。他的性格和判斷將遭受考驗。

5) The Democrats are in a terrible state.

5)民主黨人處于可怕的狀態(tài)之中。

They have won the popular vote in six out of the past seven elections, but only won the White House four times. Mrs Clinton was a deeply flawed candidate who failed to motivate voters. If turnout had been a little higher in key states (Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) she could have won. But her decades of public service counted for nothing and Bernie Sanders, the socialist from Vermont, did more damage to her candidacy during the Democratic primary campaign than realised. Now the question is, can the party rebuild — or will it turn to its own Trump-like populist?

在過去七次選舉中，他們有六次贏得了民眾的更多選票，但只有四次成功入主白宮。希拉里是一名有很大缺陷的候選人，她沒能把選民們動員起來。如果關鍵州(佛羅里達州、密歇根州、賓夕法尼亞州和威斯康星州)的投票率稍微高一點兒，她就獲勝了。但她幾十年的公共服務毫無作用，佛蒙特州的社會主義者伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在民主黨初選中對她的候選人資格造成的傷害，要大于人們所意識到的程度?，F(xiàn)在的問題是，民主黨是否能夠重建——還是將轉(zhuǎn)向自己黨內(nèi)的特朗普式民粹主義者?

6) Fears that the Trump victory heralds the start of illiberal democracy in America are overblown.

6)對于特朗普勝選預示著“無自由的民主”(Illiberal Democracy)開始在美國興起的擔憂是過慮了。

Mr Trump is no Vladimir Putin or Viktor Orban, and the US is not Russia or Hungary. Mr Trump must operate within the checks and balances and separation of powers under the US constitution. True, the president has considerable executive power, but America has strong institutions that will act as a counterweight. See my Lunch with James Baker, former chief of staff to Reagan and former secretary of state, and his prescient words of advice on how to read a US election.

特朗普不是弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)或歐爾班•維克托(Viktor Orban)，美國也不是俄羅斯或匈牙利。特朗普必須根據(jù)美國憲法規(guī)定的制衡和權(quán)力分立原則行事。誠然，總統(tǒng)有相當大的行政權(quán)力，但美國有強大的制度，這將成為一種平衡力量。請看我的《與FT共進午餐：詹姆斯•貝克》，了解他關于如何解讀美國大選的真知灼見。貝克曾任里根的幕僚長，也當過國務卿。

7) Trump destroyed two political dynasties (Bush and Clinton) and threatens to blow up Washington.

7)特朗普摧毀了兩個政治世家(布什和克林頓)，并威脅要攪翻華盛頓。

Now he must show if he is capable of playing a new role: the builder. The real estate mogul and political neophyte defied convention in every respect. He rewrote the rules of campaigning, spent next to nothing on TV advertising and relied on brand Trump and a simple message: “Make America great again.” The business of government will involve much harder choices and priorities. He must work with Congress through the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. Mike Pence, his vice-president and a former congressman, will play a leading role, maybe even as influential as Dick Cheney. We know Trump can play showman-in-chief, but he must now show, in terms of temperament and judgment, that he is ready to become commander-in-chief.

現(xiàn)在他必須證明，他是否能夠扮演好新的角色：建設者。這位房地產(chǎn)大亨、政治新手在各方面都打破了傳統(tǒng)。他重寫了競選規(guī)則，幾乎沒有花錢在電視做廣告，他就依靠“特朗普”這支品牌和一條簡單的口號：“讓美國再次偉大”。政府事務將涉及更艱難的選擇和優(yōu)先排序。他要憑借共和黨在參眾兩院獲得的多數(shù)議席與國會合作。他的副總統(tǒng)、前國會議員邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)將扮演一個主要角色，其影響力甚至可能與迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)相仿。我們知道，特朗普可以扮演好“總作秀官”(showman-in-chief)，但他現(xiàn)在必須證明，在性情脾氣和判斷方面，他準備好了擔任總指揮。