人民幣貶值未阻止中國(guó)股市上揚(yáng)

China’s renminbi slump has companies and individuals alike scrambling to move capital overseas, but it has not damped the enthusiasm of China’s equity investors.

人民幣貶值促使企業(yè)和個(gè)人爭(zhēng)相將資本轉(zhuǎn)移至海外，卻并未澆滅中國(guó)股票投資者的熱情。

The Shanghai Composite, which tracks stocks on the mainland’s biggest exchange, has been gradually rising since May. That is the opposite of what happened in August 2015 after China’s surprise renminbi devaluation caused an already falling market to drop further.

追蹤中國(guó)內(nèi)地最大股票交易所的上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)自5月以來(lái)逐漸上升。這與2015年8月的情況截然相反，當(dāng)時(shí)人民幣的意外貶值使原本已在下跌的市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步下挫。

That episode seems to be a distant memory for investors, who say the central bank is getting better at communicating policy moves. Now the renminbi’s reference rate is determined by the previous day’s currency market movements.

對(duì)投資者而言，那一幕似乎已成為遙遠(yuǎn)的記憶，他們表示中國(guó)央行正在改善政策舉動(dòng)的溝通。現(xiàn)在人民幣的參考匯率是由前一天的匯市走勢(shì)決定的。

“The domestic stock market rises when the renminbi goes down, which means equity investors don’t think lower renminbi is bad,” said Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based consultancy.

“國(guó)內(nèi)股市在人民幣下跌的時(shí)候上揚(yáng)，這意味著股票投資者并不認(rèn)為人民幣貶值是壞事，”北京咨詢(xún)機(jī)構(gòu)龍洲經(jīng)訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的陳龍說(shuō)。

The positive half-year for the stock market is mainly fuelled by a lack of alternative investment options as domestic real estate has cooled, according to Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing.

北京的法國(guó)巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)中國(guó)區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陳興動(dòng)表示，股市在這半年間走勢(shì)良好，主要推動(dòng)因素是隨著國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)降溫，人們?nèi)狈ζ渌顿Y選擇。

“Last year stock investors moved their money into property. But that market’s tightly regulated now, and so money has flooded back into the stock market,” he said.

“去年股票投資者將資金轉(zhuǎn)入房地產(chǎn)，但房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)目前受到嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管，因此資金回流到股市中，”他說(shuō)。

The current appetite of investors for stocks is a “classic short-term versus long-term response”, according to Chris Powers of Z-Ben Advisors, a Shanghai-based consultancy. “People can see in the short term that a falling renminbi may benefit exporters and aid monetary easing efforts.”

當(dāng)前投資者對(duì)股票的興趣是一種“經(jīng)典的短期與長(zhǎng)期回應(yīng)之間的權(quán)衡”，總部位于上海的澤奔咨詢(xún)(Z-Ben Advisors)的克里斯•鮑爾斯(Chris Powers)說(shuō)，“人們可以看到，短期內(nèi)人民幣下跌可能惠及出口商，并有助于貨幣寬松的努力。”

The enthusiasm comes despite a weaker renminbi hindering the Chinese government’s goals of internationalising its currency and rebalancing the economy towards consumption, he suggested.

他表示，盡管人民幣走弱阻礙了中國(guó)政府實(shí)現(xiàn)兩個(gè)目標(biāo)——人民幣國(guó)際化和推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)朝著消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)型再平衡，但投資者的熱情依舊。

Meanwhile China’s chances of being included in the highly desirable MSCI index are even lower now that Beijing plans stricter capital controls to stem the renminbi’s further decline.

同時(shí)，由于中國(guó)政府計(jì)劃利用更嚴(yán)格的資本管制來(lái)遏止人民幣的進(jìn)一步下跌，中國(guó)被納入受高度推崇的MSCI明晟新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)(MSCI Emerging Markets index)的可能性現(xiàn)在變得更低。

China’s leadership has been pushing to get Chinese stocks into the index, which would mean funds would automatically send a wave of capital in Shanghai’s direction.

中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層一直在推動(dòng)中國(guó)股市被納入該指數(shù)，如果被納入，來(lái)自基金的一股資金洪流將自動(dòng)涌向上海A股市場(chǎng)。