特朗普會(huì)動(dòng)用核武嗎？

People who are worried by the prospect of President Donald Trump are often reminded of the checks and balances in the American system. The US president is not a dictator. He is constrained by the constitution, the courts and the Congress.

經(jīng)常有人提醒那些對(duì)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)即將就任總統(tǒng)感到擔(dān)心的人：美國(guó)的體制具備制衡機(jī)制。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)不是獨(dú)裁者。他受到憲法、法院和國(guó)會(huì)的制約。

But there is one area where checks and balances do not apply: nuclear weapons. Dick Cheney, the former US vice-president, explained the situation clearly in 2008, when he told an interviewer: “The president of the United States for 50 years is followed at all times, 24 hours a day, by a military aide carrying a football that contains the nuclear codes that he would use and be authorised to use in the event of a nuclear attack on the United States. He could launch the kind of devastating attack the world’s never seen. He doesn’t have to check with anybody. He doesn’t have to call the Congress. He doesn’t have to check with the courts.”

但制衡在一個(gè)領(lǐng)域并不適用：核武器。2008年初，美國(guó)前副總統(tǒng)迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)清楚地解釋了這種情況。他在接受采訪時(shí)說(shuō)：“50年來(lái)，每時(shí)每刻，每天24小時(shí)，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)后面都跟著一名軍事助手，此人攜帶一枚足球，里面包含著總統(tǒng)在美國(guó)遭到核攻擊時(shí)將使用、并被授權(quán)使用的核密碼。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)可以發(fā)動(dòng)那種世人從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的毀滅性攻擊。他不必與任何人商量。他不必知會(huì)國(guó)會(huì)。他不需要和法庭商量。”

The president’s powers are even more extensive than those described by Mr Cheney. The US is not committed to a doctrine of “no-first-use” of nuclear weapons. So Mr Trump could order a nuclear strike against an adversary, even if the US itself had not been attacked.

總統(tǒng)的權(quán)力甚至比切尼描述的更廣泛。美國(guó)并未承諾“不首先使用”核武器。因此，特朗普可以命令對(duì)敵方發(fā)起核攻擊，即使美國(guó)本身沒(méi)有受到攻擊。

The idea that Mr Trump is too erratic to have his finger on the (mythical) nuclear button was brought up repeatedly during the presidential election campaign. Hillary Clinton pointed out that only four minutes would elapse between the president giving the order for a nuclear attack and the US launching its missiles. Since president-elect Trump will be the commander-in-chief, no one further down the chain-of-command would have the legal authority to countermand his order. During the campaign, a group of US military officers who once controlled access to the launch of nuclear weapons published an open letter arguing that Mr Trump is unfit to bear the “staggering” pressures involved in having ultimate authority over the use of the world’s deadliest weapons. One poll suggested that even 22 per cent of Mr Trump’s own supporters thought that he might launch a nuclear war.

在總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選期間，特朗普太過(guò)反復(fù)無(wú)常、不能讓他的手指觸摸(神秘的)核按鈕的觀點(diǎn)被多次提起。希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)指出，總統(tǒng)下達(dá)核攻擊的命令僅僅4分鐘后，美國(guó)的導(dǎo)彈就會(huì)發(fā)射出去。由于當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普將是美國(guó)軍隊(duì)總司令，在指揮鏈上，誰(shuí)也無(wú)權(quán)撤銷他的命令。在競(jìng)選期間，一群曾控制核武器發(fā)射程序的美國(guó)軍官發(fā)表一封公開(kāi)信，聲稱擁有使用世界上最致命武器的終極權(quán)力將帶來(lái)“驚人的”壓力，是特朗普不適合承受的。一項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查顯示，就連22%的特朗普支持者都認(rèn)為，他或許會(huì)發(fā)動(dòng)核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

In the absence of effective checks and balances on the use of nuclear weapons by Mr Trump, three issues are crucial: the president-elect’s temperament, his advisers and the kind of situations that are likely to confront him.

在特朗普使用核武器方面缺乏有效制衡的情況下，三個(gè)問(wèn)題變得至關(guān)重要：當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的性情、他的顧問(wèn)和他可能面對(duì)的情況。

Mr Trump’s personality is not reassuring. As the officers’ open letter put it, he is “easily baited and quick to lash out”. In a confrontation, his instinct is to escalate, not to seek a compromise. In the wake of the death of Fidel Castro, it is worth recalling the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Faced with the threat of a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union, President John F Kennedy resisted the advice of his hawkish military advisers to escalate the conflict and invade Cuba. Would a President Trump have the same instincts?

特朗普的性情并不令人放心。正如前述軍官們的公開(kāi)信所說(shuō)，他是“容易上鉤，動(dòng)輒大發(fā)雷霆”。在對(duì)抗中，他的本能是升級(jí)，而不是尋求妥協(xié)。在菲德?tīng)?bull;卡斯特羅(Fidel Castro)去世后，1962年古巴導(dǎo)彈危機(jī)是值得回憶的。面對(duì)與蘇聯(lián)打一場(chǎng)核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的威脅，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)約翰•肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)抵制住了鷹派軍事顧問(wèn)有關(guān)升級(jí)沖突、入侵古巴的建議。特朗普會(huì)有同樣的本能嗎?

In a foreign policy crisis, the president’s most important counsellor is his national security adviser, whose office is in the White House. The man that Mr Trump has appointed to head the National Security Council, General Michael Flynn, does not have a reputation as a calm leader. Leaked emails from Colin Powell suggest that Gen Flynn was sacked as the head of the Defence Intelligence Agency in 2014 because he was “abusive with staff, didn’t listen, worked against policy”. Mr Powell, who served as President George W Bush’s secretary of state, dismissed Gen Flynn as “right-wing, nutty”. Another very senior figure in the Bush administration privately agrees, describing Gen Flynn as “crazy” and predicting that he will not last more than a year. Those who want a sense of Gen Flynn’s temperament might care to watch the video of his speech to the Republican National Convention in which he joined in chants of “lock her up” aimed at Mrs Clinton.

在外交政策危機(jī)中，總統(tǒng)最重要的顧問(wèn)是他的國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)，后者的辦公室設(shè)在白宮內(nèi)。被特朗普任命為國(guó)家安全委員會(huì)(NSC)負(fù)責(zé)人的邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)，并不擁有一位沉著領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的聲譽(yù)。泄密的科林•鮑威爾(Colin Powell)電子郵件似乎表明，弗林將軍在2014年被解除了國(guó)防情報(bào)局(DIA)局長(zhǎng)職位，因?yàn)樗?ldquo;辱罵員工，聽(tīng)不進(jìn)意見(jiàn)，違反政策”。曾在喬治·W·布什(George W Bush)總統(tǒng)手下?lián)螄?guó)務(wù)卿的鮑威爾，對(duì)弗林不屑一顧，認(rèn)為他“持右翼立場(chǎng)、很愚蠢”。布什政府的另一位非常資深的官員私下表示同意，描述弗林是個(gè)“瘋狂的人”，并預(yù)測(cè)他在國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)的位置上撐不了一年。那些想要了解弗林性情的人，不妨看看他在共和黨全國(guó)委員會(huì)(RNC)發(fā)表演講的視頻——他跟觀眾一起高呼“把她(指希拉里)關(guān)起來(lái)”。

One of the most urgent problems that will confront Mr Trump is the North Korean nuclear programme. It is one of the three main subjects the president-elect discussed with President Obama at their first meeting. North Korea is thought to be about two years away from developing a nuclear-tipped missile, capable of hitting the west coast of the US. It is often said that no American president could tolerate that situation. But President Barack Obama has, to date, rejected military options for dealing with North Korea because of the risks that an American attack would spark devastating retaliation against South Korea, or even the use of North Korea’s remaining nuclear weapons. Will president-elect Trump be as restrained?

朝鮮核計(jì)劃是特朗普面臨的最緊迫問(wèn)題之一。這是他作為當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)首次與奧巴馬(Obama)總統(tǒng)會(huì)面時(shí)討論的三個(gè)主要議題之一。據(jù)信，朝鮮在大約兩年內(nèi)就能開(kāi)發(fā)出攜帶核彈頭的遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈，射程達(dá)到美國(guó)西海岸。人們經(jīng)常說(shuō)，任何一位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)都不能容忍這種情況發(fā)生。但迄今為止，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)拒絕對(duì)朝鮮采取軍事行動(dòng)，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)的攻擊將讓韓國(guó)遭到毀滅性報(bào)復(fù)，甚至可能促使朝鮮使用剩下的核武器。當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普也會(huì)同樣克制嗎?

Another potential crisis is brewing in eastern Europe. Russia has been increasingly open in rehearsing for the use of battlefield nuclear weapons in a conflict with Nato. As one Russian analyst puts it: “President Putin has put the nuclear gun on the table.” Might President Trump be tempted to respond in kind?

東歐正在醞釀著另一場(chǎng)潛在的危機(jī)。對(duì)于演練在與北約(Nato)的沖突中使用戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)核武器，俄羅斯越來(lái)越公開(kāi)。正如一位俄羅斯分析人士所說(shuō)：“普京總統(tǒng)已把核武器擺到桌上。”特朗普總統(tǒng)可能做出類似回應(yīng)嗎?

In the coming weeks, president-elect Trump will be introduced to America’s nuclear secrets contained in the “football” (in reality, a briefcase). These including the “presidential decision handbook” which contains the menu of targets that President Trump could choose to attack, along with estimated death tolls, which run into millions and, in some cases, more than 100m. This is said to be a sobering experience for all new presidents. Let us hope it has the same effect on President Trump.

在接下來(lái)的幾個(gè)星期，“足球”(實(shí)際上是一個(gè)公文包)中包含的美國(guó)核秘密將被介紹給當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普。其中包括“總統(tǒng)決策手冊(cè)”，內(nèi)容包含特朗普總統(tǒng)可以選擇攻擊的目標(biāo)菜單，以及估計(jì)死亡人數(shù)——達(dá)到數(shù)百萬(wàn)，在某些情況下會(huì)超過(guò)1億。據(jù)稱，這是一次讓所有新總統(tǒng)清醒過(guò)來(lái)的體驗(yàn)。讓我們希望這對(duì)特朗普總統(tǒng)也會(huì)產(chǎn)生同樣效果吧。