Lex專欄：中國在線銀行的位置

In financial services, the label “transformative” often fades to “disappointing”. Would-be disrupters, ranging from peer-to-peer lenders in the west to China’s new online banks, risk co-option by incumbents looking for new sales outlets. A particular challenge for Chinese challengers is that the authorities may prevent them making too many waves.

在金融服務這一行，“變革型”這個標簽到頭來往往褪色，變成“令人失望”。從西方的P2P貸款機構到中國新生的在線銀行，潛在的顛覆者有可能被尋覓新銷售渠道的老牌機構拉攏。對中國的挑戰(zhàn)者來說，一個特別挑戰(zhàn)是當局可能阻止他們引發(fā)太多漣漪。

China’s banking regulator has unveiled results to the end of September for the country’s first five officially sanctioned, privately owned banks licensed during 2014. The rhetoric is encouraging enough. The authorities praised the newcomers for extending financial services to under-serviced parts of the economy, such as small and medium enterprises. The numbers were not bad, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given their short history, the five were profitable in aggregate, if only just. Assets have also grown quickly, to nearly $20bn.

中國銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管機構公布了2014年獲得正式批準的首批5家民營銀行截至今年9月底的結果。措辭相當令人鼓舞。當局稱贊新來者把金融服務帶到服務不足的經濟部門，如中小企業(yè)。數(shù)字也不錯。也許令人驚訝的是，雖然這5家銀行成立不久，但它們整體上是盈利的，即便只是勉強如此。資產也實現(xiàn)了快速增長，已達到近200億美元。

Despite these rapid strides, anyone hoping for a shake-up of the sector will be disappointed. Against a Chinese banking asset base of more than $30tn, the new operators — which include WeBank (backed by Tencent) and MYBank (30 per cent owned by Ant Financial, Alibaba’s finance affiliate) — are tiny. Their impact on mighty rivals has thus been negligible. There is little worry that they will start eating into the incumbents’ share. For the new banks, loans are less than half of the assets; credit creation has been slow.

盡管有這些快速的進展，但是任何人如果希望中國銀行業(yè)發(fā)生重大變化都會失望。相對于中國銀行業(yè)超過30萬億美元的資產基礎，新的銀行——包括騰訊(Tencent)支持的微眾銀行(WeBank)，以及由阿里巴巴(Alibaba)旗下的金融附屬公司螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)持30%股份的網商銀行(MYBank)——在規(guī)模上微不足道。因此，它們對強大對手的影響迄今可忽略不計。沒人擔心它們將開始侵蝕老牌銀行的市場份額。就這幾家新銀行而言，貸款不到資產的一半;信貸創(chuàng)造迄今緩慢。

Perhaps this was always the plan. The regulator’s statement, while heralding the role of the debutantes in extending financial services, also seemed to suggest they are not really meant to shake things up. They are to stick to their place: supplementing the system rather than transforming it. An extension to the conspiracy theory is that it suits the authorities for the private sector to shoulder new lending risks. State-owned banks are already burdened with old ones. Any failures would be a blot on someone else’s balance sheet.

也許這種格局一直就是計劃的一部分。監(jiān)管機構的聲明盡管肯定新銀行在延伸金融服務方面起到的作用，但似乎也表明，當局并不真的要讓它們撼動現(xiàn)狀。它們需要固守自己的位置：補充銀行體系，而不是去改變它。這一“陰謀論”的一個延伸觀點是，讓私營部門承擔新的貸款風險恰好適合當局的需要。國有銀行已經背著老的貸款風險的重擔。任何失敗將是別人的資產負債表上的一個污點。