特朗普重用軍人引起警惕

For someone who once claimed to “know more than the generals” about Isis, Donald Trump seems to crave the opinion of men in uniform.

作為一個(gè)曾自詡“比將軍們還了解”伊斯蘭國(guó)(ISIS)的人，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎渴望得到軍方人士的意見(jiàn)。

With the likely nomination of John Kelly to run the homeland security department, Mr Trump will have chosen a third retired general for his national security team, after the selection of James “Mad Dog” Mattis as defence secretary and Michael Flynn, a controversial intelligence officer, as national security adviser.

他可能提名約翰•凱利(John Kelly)執(zhí)掌國(guó)土安全部(DHS)，這將是他為自己的國(guó)家安全團(tuán)隊(duì)選擇的第三位退役將軍。之前他已選了“瘋狗”(Mad Dog)詹姆斯•馬蒂斯(James Mattis)擔(dān)任國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)、有爭(zhēng)議的情報(bào)官員邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)擔(dān)任國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)。

At the Central Intelligence Agency, Mr Trump has nominated Mike Pompeo, a West Point graduate and retired army captain. And he is considering retired general David Petraeus for secretary of state and Admiral Michael Rogers, head of the National Security Agency, for director of national intelligence, the role that oversees the entire US intelligence community.

他還提名西點(diǎn)軍校(West Point)畢業(yè)的退役陸軍上尉麥克•龐貝(Mike Pompeo)執(zhí)掌中央情報(bào)局(CIA)，并且正在考慮讓退役將軍戴維•彼得雷烏斯(David Petraeus)擔(dān)任國(guó)務(wù)卿，讓國(guó)家安全局(NSA)局長(zhǎng)、海軍上將邁克爾•羅杰斯(Admiral Michael Rogers)擔(dān)任國(guó)家情報(bào)總監(jiān)(Director of National Intelligence)、掌管美國(guó)的整個(gè)情報(bào)體系。

The reliance on military figures has prompted warnings about national security strategy in the Trump administration — both that the military could become more politicised and that policy could become too militarised.

特朗普對(duì)軍方人物的倚重，引發(fā)了許多人士對(duì)其政府的國(guó)家安全戰(zhàn)略的警告——軍方可能變得更加政治化，而政府政策可能變得更加軍事化。

Republicans in Congress are already paving the way to arrange a waiver to allow Mr Mattis to serve despite a decades-old rule that military officers must be out of uniform for seven years before being appointed Pentagon chief. But some Democrats want to block any effort to circumvent a law that was put in place to ensure civilian control of the military.

在國(guó)會(huì)，共和黨議員已經(jīng)在為促成一項(xiàng)豁免條款、使馬蒂斯能夠出任國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)鋪路子。根據(jù)一條實(shí)行了幾十年的法律，軍官必須退役滿(mǎn)7年后才能被任命為國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)，這是為了確保文官對(duì)軍隊(duì)的控制。一些民主黨議員希望阻止任何試圖繞過(guò)這條法律的努力。

Few critics would go as far as Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, who warned on Twitter that the cabinet was “starting to look like a military junta”. But many believe the appointments could erode the necessary political buffers that separate the civilian and military worlds.

批評(píng)者中最疾言厲色的當(dāng)數(shù)肯尼斯•羅思(Kenneth Roth)，這位人權(quán)觀(guān)察(Human Rights Watch)的執(zhí)行主任在Twitter上警告稱(chēng)，這個(gè)內(nèi)閣“開(kāi)始像軍政府了”。但很多人的確認(rèn)為這些任命可能削弱把文官和軍方分隔開(kāi)所必需的政治緩沖區(qū)。

“Many of these generals stand out because what they can do is so remarkable,” says Phillip Carter, a retired army officer at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. “But one of the dangers is that it militarises the approach to different policy issues.”

“很多將軍脫穎而出，這是因?yàn)樗麄兡軌蜃龅氖虏煌瑢こ＃?rdquo;退役軍官、在華盛頓的新美國(guó)安全中心(Center for a New American Security)任職的菲利普•卡特(Phillip Carter)稱(chēng)，“但有一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)是，這種安排會(huì)使得處理不同政策問(wèn)題的方式變得軍事化。”

The presence of so many generals might not come as a surprise, given the military’s status as the most respected institution in the US. American voters have shown they resent the decade and a half of wars the country has been involved in, but they lionise the veterans who have fought in them.

考慮到軍隊(duì)是美國(guó)最受尊敬的機(jī)構(gòu)，如此多的將軍進(jìn)入特朗普政府或許并不令人意外。美國(guó)選民對(duì)15年來(lái)自己國(guó)家所參與的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)表現(xiàn)出憎恨情緒，但是他們崇拜那些曾經(jīng)參戰(zhàn)的老兵。

A former student of New York Military Academy, Mr Trump often veered during the election campaign between veneration of past generals, notably George S Patton and Douglas Mac-Arthur, and biting attacks on the current generation of commanders who he claimed had been “reduced to rubble”.

特朗普曾就讀紐約軍事學(xué)院(New York Military Academy)，在競(jìng)選期間，他一方面對(duì)喬治•巴頓(George S. Patton)、道格拉斯•麥克阿瑟(Douglas MacArthur)等已故將軍崇拜不已，一方面又對(duì)當(dāng)今的指揮官們大加抨擊，說(shuō)他們是廢柴。

The first risk of having so many senior military figures in his cabinet is the impact on the active military. With their eyes on high-level posts in a future administration once they retire, some commanders might be tempted to tailor their advice to politicians in order to win favour. Martin Dempsey, former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, warned in the summer about the growing presence in political campaigns of retired military personnel, including Mr Flynn and John Allen, a former Marine general who was supporting Hillary Clinton.

在內(nèi)閣中任命眾多軍方人物，第一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是會(huì)對(duì)現(xiàn)役軍人造成影響。一些指揮官謀求退役后進(jìn)入新政府中擔(dān)任高級(jí)職位，他們?cè)谔岢鼋ㄗh時(shí)，可能會(huì)不由自主地迎合政治人物的觀(guān)點(diǎn)，以博取對(duì)方好感。前參謀長(zhǎng)聯(lián)席會(huì)議主席馬丁•鄧普西(Martin Dempsey)在今年夏天對(duì)退役軍官日益參與政治活動(dòng)的情況發(fā)出警告，其中包括弗林和當(dāng)時(shí)支持希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的前海軍陸戰(zhàn)隊(duì)上將約翰•艾倫(John Allen)。

“I worry . . . about military people angling for political jobs as retirement approaches,” says Kori Schake, a Stanford scholar who co-wrote a book with Gen Mattis on civil-military relations.

“我擔(dān)心……快退役的謀求政治職位的軍人，”科里•斯卡克(Kori Schake)表示，這位斯坦福大學(xué)的學(xué)者與馬蒂斯將軍合著了一本有關(guān)文武關(guān)系的書(shū)。

The second potential problem is that in a Trump administration dominated by generals, there is a risk the military may be seen as the solution for many problems and that other approaches will be played down. With a budget that dwarfs other parts of the government, the tendency to look first to the Pentagon for answers during a crisis could become more pronounced. The symbolism of having a former general running the homeland department, which is responsible for border security and a range of other domestic security issues, has left some uncomfortable.

第二個(gè)潛在問(wèn)題是，在將軍們占據(jù)重要地位的特朗普政府，軍事途徑可能被視為很多問(wèn)題的解決辦法，其他解決辦法可能被忽視。在軍事預(yù)算遠(yuǎn)超其他政府部門(mén)的情況下，在危機(jī)中以五角大樓馬首是瞻的傾向可能變得更加突出。把負(fù)責(zé)邊境安全及一系列其他國(guó)內(nèi)安全問(wèn)題的國(guó)土安全部交給一位退役將軍來(lái)執(zhí)掌，其中的象征意義讓一些人感到不安。

However, some of Mr Trump’s generals do not fit easily into a warmongering stereotype. Mr Kelly is the highest ranking recent officer to have lost a child in war after his son Robert, also a Marine, was killed in Afghanistan.

不過(guò)特朗普提名的一些將軍不太符合軍人好戰(zhàn)的刻板印象。凱利是近年在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中承受喪子之痛的級(jí)別最高的軍官，他的兒子羅伯特(Robert)(也是海軍陸戰(zhàn)隊(duì)員)在阿富汗遇難。

Mr Mattis, who has often called for an increase in the state department budget, warned this year that Americans had forgotten the huge death tolls that came with war.

常常呼吁增加國(guó)務(wù)院預(yù)算的馬蒂斯在今年警告稱(chēng)，美國(guó)人已經(jīng)忘記了伴隨戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)而來(lái)的龐大死亡數(shù)字。

He said the public view was “that we can do what we wish with the Petri dish called the military and there is no consequence”, and that “there needs to be a little more humility and a little more modesty on the part of those who may have statutory, legal, constitutional authority over the military”.

他表示，民眾的觀(guān)點(diǎn)是“我們可以用被稱(chēng)為軍隊(duì)的培養(yǎng)皿來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)我們的意圖，而且沒(méi)有任何后果”，“那些可能對(duì)軍隊(duì)擁有法定、合法以及憲法權(quán)力的人，應(yīng)該多一點(diǎn)謙卑和謙虛”。

And while some Democrats have raised concerns about civilian control of the military, others have welcomed the appointment of Mr Mattis to the Pentagon because they believe he will act as a restraining influence on Mr Trump, rather than push him into action.

一些民主黨人對(duì)文官控制軍隊(duì)提出了擔(dān)憂(yōu)，而其他人對(duì)馬蒂斯被提名為國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)表示歡迎，因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為馬蒂斯將會(huì)促使特朗普克制，而不會(huì)推動(dòng)特朗普采取行動(dòng)。

The final problem is that military officers do not always make good politicians or White House officials. The most respected national security adviser, Brent Scowcroft, was an Air Force general, but Alexander Haig, a former army general, had to resign as Ronald Reagan’s secretary of state after just over a year after causing a civil-military crisis following an assassination attempt on the president.

最后一個(gè)問(wèn)題是，軍官并不總能成為出色的政治家或白宮官員。最受尊敬的國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)布倫特•斯考克羅夫特(Brent Scowcroft)曾是空軍將軍，但前陸軍上將亞歷山大•黑格(Alexander Haig)為羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)擔(dān)任國(guó)務(wù)卿僅1年多便被迫辭職，因?yàn)樗诶锔龃毯笠l(fā)了文官與軍方的關(guān)系危機(jī)。

Michael Mullen, former chairman of the joint chiefs, recently said he was worried about the “militarisation of the government”. Mr Mullen said many military brass did not understand enough about politics to navigate that world: “I don’t care what any of them say, they don’t know what they are getting into.”

前參謀長(zhǎng)聯(lián)席會(huì)議主席邁克爾•穆倫(Michael Mullen)最近表示，他擔(dān)心“政府軍事化”。穆倫稱(chēng)，很多高級(jí)軍官對(duì)政治的理解不足以使他們?cè)谡鐟?yīng)付裕如。“我不關(guān)心他們?nèi)魏我粋€(gè)人說(shuō)什么，他們不知道自己要面對(duì)什么。”