美國(guó)農(nóng)場(chǎng)主關(guān)注特朗普對(duì)華貿(mào)易政策

US trade policies under Donald Trump will be key to agricultural commodities next year, as the world continues to grapple with high levels of grain production and inventories, according to a leading forecaster.

一家領(lǐng)先的預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)表示，在全球繼續(xù)應(yīng)對(duì)谷物產(chǎn)量和庫存雙雙高企的局面之際，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)主政下的美國(guó)貿(mào)易政策將是影響明年農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品市場(chǎng)的關(guān)鍵因素。

“The area of concern is whether anything is going to happen that is going to affect our trade with China, which is a big agricultural buyer,” said Don Riffe, senior vice-president for agribusiness intelligence unit at Informa, a key grains forecaster whose data are widely followed by market participants.

咨詢公司Informa農(nóng)商情報(bào)部門高級(jí)副總裁唐•里費(fèi)(Don Riffe)表示：“令人擔(dān)憂的是，會(huì)否發(fā)生什么事情影響我們與農(nóng)產(chǎn)品大買家中國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易。”Informa是一家主要的谷物預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)，其數(shù)據(jù)受到市場(chǎng)參與者的廣泛關(guān)注。

Mr Trump’s anti-globalisation campaign platform during the elections has raised concerns about protectionist economic policies and the impact on US imports and exports of commodities, especially with China.

特朗普在競(jìng)選期間的反全球化政策綱領(lǐng)令人擔(dān)憂他會(huì)推行保護(hù)主義的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，從而對(duì)美國(guó)的大宗商品進(jìn)出口——尤其是與中國(guó)之間的大宗商品貿(mào)易——造成影響。

Despite concerns about China’s economic growth slowdown earlier in the year, agricultural exports to the country have remained firm, especially from the US in the face of drought and adverse weather in Brazil and Argentina.

盡管今年早些時(shí)候出現(xiàn)了對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的擔(dān)憂，但各國(guó)對(duì)華農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口基本保持穩(wěn)定，尤其是美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的出口，至于巴西和阿根廷則受到了干旱和惡劣天氣的影響。

China’s active imports of soyabeans from the US have kept the commodity at about $10 a bushel even in the face of record world production, which Informa estimates to have totalled 340.5m tonnes in 2016/17.

即便全球大豆產(chǎn)量創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄——Informa估計(jì)2016/17年度大豆總產(chǎn)量達(dá)3.405億噸——但中國(guó)從美國(guó)的大量進(jìn)口，使大豆價(jià)格得以保持在10美元/蒲式耳左右。

Informa expects farmers, especially in the US, to switch their crops out of corn into soya, and the planted area to rise in 2017/18 to 125.5m hectares, up 4 per cent from the year before. World production of the oilseed is predicted to decline marginally to 338.9m tonnes, but usage is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to 340.3m tonnes.

Informa預(yù)計(jì)農(nóng)民，特別是美國(guó)農(nóng)民，將把作物從玉米換成大豆，2017/2018年度大豆種植面積料增加到1.255億公頃，比上年增長(zhǎng)4%。油籽全球產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)略微下降至3.389億噸，但使用量料將增加3.5%至3.403億噸。

Production levels for key grains including wheat, rice and corn are also forecast to fall slightly after a year of record output in 2016/17, although they are still elevated.

小麥、大米和玉米等關(guān)鍵谷物的產(chǎn)量水平預(yù)計(jì)也將輕微下滑，但仍然處在較高水平。2016/2017年度這些谷物產(chǎn)量創(chuàng)下記錄。

Supplies of grains and oilseeds remain plentiful, and “we are looking at another year ahead where there’s abundant supplies”, said Mr Riffe.

里費(fèi)表示，谷物和油籽供應(yīng)仍然充足，“我們認(rèn)為來年還將供應(yīng)充足。”

For corn, Informa expects production to fall almost 4 per cent to 1bn tonnes in 2017/18, helping inventories to decline about 14 per cent to 195.6m tonnes. Wheat production is expected to fall back 1 per cent to 736.6m tonnes, although with usage also dropping, inventories are forecast at another record high of 247.7m tonnes.

玉米方面，Informa預(yù)計(jì)2017/2018年度的產(chǎn)量將下降近4%至10億噸，有助于將庫存減少約14%至1.956億噸。預(yù)計(jì)小麥產(chǎn)量將下降1%至7.366億噸，但使用量也會(huì)下降，預(yù)計(jì)庫存將達(dá)到2.477億噸的又一新高。

While adverse weather is always a risk, other forecasters have noted volatility in the global currency markets as a potential cause for volatility for agricultural commodity prices during 2017.

雖然惡劣天氣總是一大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但其他預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)指出，全球外匯市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)將是造成2017年農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的潛在原因。

In its annual outlook, Rabobank said the euro was likely to depreciate as a result of French, Dutch and German elections during 2017. This will be good for European farm exports. The fall in the pound after the Brexit vote in June has pushed up British grain exports to the highest level for almost 20 years, the bank said.

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)在年度展望報(bào)告中表示，法國(guó)、荷蘭和德國(guó)在2017年的選舉很可能導(dǎo)致歐元貶值。這將有利于歐洲農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口。該銀行表示，6月份英國(guó)脫歐公投后英鎊下跌，推動(dòng)英國(guó)谷物出口達(dá)到近20年來最高水平。