人民幣貶值的雙刃劍讓中國企業(yè)好為難

FOSHAN, China — At first glance, given the way that China controls its currency, the Guangdong Chigo Air Conditioning Company might seem like a winner.

中國佛山——鑒于中國控制貨幣的方式，廣東志高空調有限公司乍一看似乎是個贏家。

For the past three years, China has allowed its currency, the renminbi, to weaken in value compared with the American dollar. On paper, that should bolster Chigo’s profits. Half of its $1.2 billion in annual sales come from abroad, mostly in dollars, and a weaker renminbi gives Chinese companies an advantage when they sell their products in other countries.

過去三年里，中國讓自己的貨幣人民幣相較美元貶值。理論上，這應該提高志高的利潤。其12億美元(約合80億元人民幣)的年銷售額中，有一半來自國外，且主要是以美元結算;人民幣貶值讓中國的企業(yè)在其他國家銷售產品時占據(jù)優(yōu)勢。

Yet the renminbi’s slide has provided only a marginal benefit, said Li Xinghao, the company’s founder and chairman. Big Western department store chains have learned to pit manufacturers against one another — and China is full of air-conditioner manufacturers. When the renminbi weakens, the chains simply tell factory bosses to cut their prices or lose the business to another Chinese factory.

但該公司的創(chuàng)始人、董事局主席李興浩表示，人民幣貶值只帶來了邊際收益。西方大的連鎖百貨公司已經學會讓制造商相互競爭，而在中國，空調制造商遍地都是。人民幣貶值時，那些連鎖公司只是簡單地讓工廠老板降價，否則生意就會流向另一家中國工廠。

“It only brings benefits for the first month,” Mr. Li said. “For the next month, clients are recalculating what they’ll pay. The supply is much greater than demand, so profits can’t go up.”

“只是第一個月帶來了好處，”李興浩說。“第二個月，客戶就在重新計算要付的價錢了。供遠大于求，所以利潤上不去。”

The renminbi is likely to be a major topic behind closed doors as Chinese lawmakers gather beginning on Sunday for the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, the top lawmaking body in the country. President Trump had heavily criticized China during the campaign, saying that Beijing for many years used an artificially weak currency to unfairly help its businesses and steal American jobs.

本周日，中國立法者開始聚集起來，召開中國最高立法機構全國人民代表大會的年度會議時，人民幣可能會是閉門討論的一個重要話題。特朗普總統(tǒng)在競選期間嚴厲指責中國，稱多年來，北京利用被人為壓低匯率的貨幣不公平地幫助中國企業(yè)，并竊取美國的就業(yè)崗位。

Mr. Trump has not acted on a campaign promise to label China a currency manipulator, and Steven Mnuchin, the new Treasury secretary, has said the administration is conducting a standard review of China’s currency policy. Still, Mr. Trump has kept up his rhetoric.

特朗普尚未兌現(xiàn)競選時的承諾，將中國列為匯率操縱國，新任財政部長史蒂文·努欽(Steven Mnuchin)則表示，聯(lián)邦政府正在對中國的匯率政策進行標準評估。但特朗普的口風并沒有變。

Investors and economists widely expect market forces to push the renminbi to weaken even more. And that leaves China with some tough choices. If Beijing lets its currency slide, it will risk worsening relations with Washington.

投資者和經濟專家普遍預計，市場力量會推動人民幣進一步貶值。這會讓中國面臨棘手的選擇。如果北京放任人民幣貶值，就可能會導致與華盛頓的關系惡化。

On the other hand, a weaker currency would help its factories. But economists and business executives are increasingly throwing cold water on that thinking, saying the dynamic has changed: These days, they say, a weaker currency may hurt China and its companies more than it helps.

另一方面，貨幣貶值可能會有助于中國的工廠。但經濟專家和企業(yè)高管越來越多地向這種想法潑冷水，稱形勢變了：他們說，如今貨幣貶值對中國和中國公司的傷害也許比幫助大。

Chinese officials, who keep a tight grip on the currency’s value, appear to be aware of that. In recent months, they have kept the value from falling to 7 renminbi to the dollar, a level the currency has not seen since May 2008. Currently, it is hovering at about 6.9 renminbi to the dollar. That support is expensive — China has drawn nearly $1 trillion from its huge stash of foreign money to hold its currency steady.

嚴格控制人民幣價值的中國官員似乎也意識到了這一點。最近幾個月，他們防止人民幣匯率跌至自2008年5月以來從未出現(xiàn)過的7元人民幣兌1美元。目前，人民幣與美元之間的匯率在6.9元人民幣兌1美元左右徘徊。這種支持代價昂貴：中國已從其龐大的外匯儲備中抽出近1萬億美元，以維持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定。

The currency is under pressure to depreciate for a number of reasons. Among them: Families and companies are sending their money out of China, looking for safer places to store it as the country’s growth cools.

人民幣面臨貶值壓力的原因有很多，其中包括：隨著中國經濟的增長降溫，家庭和公司正在把資產轉移至國外，尋找更安全的存放地點。

China keeps a tight rein on the amount of money that flows over its borders. But between the semiautonomous Chinese city of Hong Kong, which has a separate currency and legal system, and its neighbor on the mainland, Shenzhen, “there are thousands and thousands of smugglers, and they just bring billions of dollars” out of China, said Kevin Lai, the chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets. A weaker currency could push more Chinese people and companies to send their money abroad, for fear of further losses if they continue to hold renminbi.

中國嚴格控制流出國境的資金金額。但大和資本市場(Daiwa Capital Markets)負責除日本外亞洲市場的首席經濟學家賴志文(Kevin Lai)說，在有著單獨貨幣和法律制度的中國半自治城市香港及其位于中國大陸的鄰居深圳之間，“有千千萬萬的走私者，把數(shù)十億美元”帶出中國。人民幣貶值可能會促使更多的中國民眾和公司把資金轉移到國外，因為他們如果擔心繼續(xù)持有人民幣，會蒙受進一步的損失。

That isn’t all. The weaker currency makes it harder for many of China’s heavily indebted companies to pay off what they owe overseas or to raise more money. A weaker currency also does not pack the same competitive punch because so much of the world’s manufacturing base is now in China; four-fifths of the world’s window-mounted air-conditioners are made in the country, for example. Basically, a weaker currency is not as much help if a company’s competitors all use the same currency.

這還不是全部。人民幣貶值會增加很多債臺高筑的中國公司還清海外債務或籌集更多資金的難度。人民幣貶值也并不會增強競爭力，因為全球制造業(yè)基地中很大部分都在中國。比如，全球五分之四的窗式空調是中國制造?？偟膩碚f，如果一家公司的競爭對手用的都是同一種貨幣，貨幣貶值就不會起太多作用。

Today’s dynamic signals a big shift from a decade ago. Back then, Beijing kept the currency artificially weak compared with the dollar — and Chinese businesses benefited. A cheap and stable currency was one of a number of reasons that companies like General Electric, Mattel and Samsonite shifted production there. The shift gave China tens of millions of manufacturing jobs, stoked its economy and helped create a world power.

今天的態(tài)勢與十年前相比已經發(fā)生了很大的變化。那時，北京人為壓低人民幣相較于美元的價值，中國企業(yè)獲益。低廉、穩(wěn)定的貨幣是通用電氣(General Electric)、美泰(Mattel)和新秀麗(Samsonite)等公司把生產轉移到中國的眾多原因之一。這種轉移給中國提供了數(shù)千萬個制造業(yè)工作崗位，刺激了中國經濟，并幫助中國成為世界大國。

In time, it also helped nurture homegrown competitors. The Carrier Corporation — which has partly reversed plans to move some production from the United States to Mexico after coming under pressure from Mr. Trump — built seven air-conditioner factories in China more than a decade ago. But in 2008, Carrier put them into a joint venture with Midea, one of Chigo’s main rivals in the Chinese air-conditioner industry. Carrier said it still held 40 percent of the joint venture but declined to comment further.

最后，它還幫助培養(yǎng)了本土競爭對手。目前，在特朗普的壓力下，開利公司(Carrier Corporation)已經部分改變了把一些生產從美國轉移到墨西哥的計劃。但十多年前，開利在中國建了七座空調廠。不過2008年，該公司把它們并入了與美的成立的一家合資企業(yè)。美的是志高在中國空調行業(yè)的主要競爭對手之一。開利自稱仍持有該合資企業(yè)40%的股份，但拒絕進一步置評。

The weaker currency still helps a number of companies, especially a small but growing group of Chinese companies that export specialized or high-quality products and compete with Western companies. One such Chinese company is Broad Air Conditioning, a maker of specialized central air-conditioning systems that are more energy-efficient but also considerably more expensive than most central air-conditioning systems.

人民幣貶值依然會幫到很多公司，特別是一批出口專業(yè)產品或高質量產品，同西方企業(yè)競爭的中國公司。它們數(shù)量雖小，卻在不斷增加中。遠大空調有限公司就是這樣一家中國公司。該公司生產的專業(yè)中央空調系統(tǒng)比大部分中央空調系統(tǒng)更節(jié)能，但也貴得多。

“However much the U.S. dollar rises, our profits rise the same,” said Wu Zheng, general manager of Broad’s international operations.

“美元升值多少，我們的利潤就漲多少，”遠大國際公司總經理吳正說。

But for most companies, other issues dwarf the currency. Wages have risen to the point where global manufacturers of low-cost items like shoes and clothing are shifting work outside China. Economic growth is slowing. Global trade has weakened. And in many industries, like window-mounted air-conditioners, a surplus of Chinese factories has undermined pricing and wiped out profits.

但對大部分企業(yè)來說，其他問題蓋過了人民幣問題。工資水平上漲，導致服裝和鞋履等低成本物品的跨國制造商正在把生產從中國轉移出去。經濟增長放緩。國際貿易疲軟。并且在很多行業(yè)，比如窗式空調行業(yè)，中國工廠的過量影響了定價，吞噬了利潤。

Chigo — which is headquartered in Foshan, on the outskirts of the city of Guangzhou — lost money from operations in 2014 and 2015. In the first half of last year, Chigo eked out a tiny profit as the renminbi began to tumble. It was briefly able to capture some gains from the currency’s depreciation before foreign retailers demanded price discounts.

總部設在廣州附近佛山的志高空調，2014年和2015年連續(xù)虧損。去年上半年，隨著人民幣開始暴跌，志高勉強小幅盈利。在外國零售商提出折扣要求之前，它能在短時間內從人民幣的貶值中獲得一些好處。

Chigo sells air-conditioners in 180 countries, including outlets in the United States like Menards, a Midwest chain of home-improvement centers.

志高的空調在180個國家有售，包括美國的賣場，如中西部的家裝連鎖梅納茲(Menards)。

Three years ago, Chigo experimented with its own shift overseas. With wages rising at home, it chose two countries with even lower wages as well as steep barriers to imports: Nigeria and India.

三年前，志高嘗試向國外轉移。鑒于國內工資水平上漲，志高選擇了兩個工資水平更低且進口壁壘頗高的國家：尼日利亞和印度。

Chigo found that in both countries, worker productivity was much lower while government corruption was a problem. In Africa, security was also an issue. A car carrying Chigo sales managers in Ghana was approached in broad daylight by two armed robbers who demanded the managers’ wallets and pistol-whipped their driver. Now its Indian and Nigerian operations have nearly shut down.

志高在這兩個國家發(fā)現(xiàn)，工人的生產效率要低很多，同時政府腐敗也是一個問題。在非洲，還有安全問題。在加納，曾有兩名武裝劫匪在光天化日之下走到志高的銷售經理們乘坐的車前，要求他們交出錢包，還用手槍柄打了司機?，F(xiàn)在，志高在印度和尼日利亞的工廠幾乎都停工了。

“In China, companies feel a sense of safety, which is already a huge support” for business, said Jackie Cheng, the vice president of Chigo and general manager for its overseas marketing. China’s high-speed rail network and its world-class network of new expressways also make it easy to do business, he added.

“在中國，公司有安全感，這已經是對生意的大力支持了，”志高副總裁、海外營銷本部總經理成劍說。他接著表示，中國的高鐵網(wǎng)絡和世界級的新高速公路網(wǎng)絡也讓做生意變得容易。

Persuading Chinese managers to live overseas is also difficult, Chigo found. “That’s serious,” Mr. Cheng said. “We can’t get used to the food outside, and many Chinese can’t really speak English.”

志高發(fā)現(xiàn)，說服中國管理人員在國外生活也很難。“這個問題很嚴重，”成劍說。“我們不習慣國外的飲食，很多中國人真的不會說英語。”

The factory in Foshan ran only four days a week late last year because of weak orders and overcapacity in the Chinese air-conditioning manufacturing sector. In interviews, some Chigo workers expressed irritation that this meant they earned less money.

去年年底，因為訂單少和中國空調制造業(yè)產能過剩，佛山的工廠一周只生產四天。在采訪中，志高的一些工人表示了惱火，因為這意味著他們掙的錢少了。

But Mr. Cheng said that the company’s sprawling, 23-year-old factory had become busier in recent weeks as orders have risen. He attributed this mainly to an acceleration in the American and Chinese economies but also to the fall of the renminbi, which makes air-conditioners slightly cheaper and more affordable around the world and results in slightly greater demand.

但成劍說，最近幾周，隨著訂單增加，該公司規(guī)模龐大且已有23年歷史的工廠已經忙起來了。他把這種情況主要歸因于美國和中國經濟加速，同時也有人民幣貶值的原因。后者讓空調在全世界變得稍微便宜一些，更實惠，導致需求小幅增加。

Yet if the renminbi weakens further this year, as many economists expect, Mr. Cheng expects further demands from overseas retailers for discounts, coupled with threats to move orders to other Chinese air-conditioning manufacturers if Chigo does not comply. Frowning, he added, “Our clients have already told me, ‘The renminbi will reach 7.1. Please reduce your prices.’”

但如果人民幣今年像很多經濟專家預計的那樣進一步貶值，成劍估計海外零售商會進一步提出折扣要求，威脅如果志高不照辦，它們就把訂單交給其他中國空調制造商。他皺著眉補充說，“我們的客戶已經和我說了，‘人民幣匯率會跌到7.1。請降價吧。’”