中國(guó)尋求主宰電動(dòng)車電池市場(chǎng)

The headquarters of CATL, China’s fastest growing battery maker, lie on the edge of the city of Ningde, a stone’s throw from ponds where farmers raise carp and a street of cheap noodle restaurants and vehicle repair shops frequented by migrant workers. Inside the vast factory, battery parts move silently on automated conveyor belts. Signs on the walls encourage workers not to waste materials or time, or indulge in “unnecessary bending” for their own safety.

中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)速度最快的電池制造商——寧德時(shí)代新能源科技股份有限公司(CATL)的總部坐落于寧德市的邊緣，距這里不遠(yuǎn)處便是魚塘和一條街道，街上遍布農(nóng)民工經(jīng)常光顧的廉價(jià)面館和修車鋪。在這座龐大工廠內(nèi)部，電池部件在自動(dòng)傳送帶上默默地移動(dòng)。墻上的標(biāo)語(yǔ)鼓勵(lì)工人不要浪費(fèi)材料和時(shí)間，為了他們的安全起見，也不要沉迷于“不必要的彎曲”。

The plant looks like lots of others dotted across the country. But with a valuation of $11.5bn, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, to give it its full name, is anything but mundane. It is set to become China’s Panasonic — a national champion — and a key part of Beijing’s ambitious plan to remake the global battery market and exploit rising demand for electric cars.

這座工廠看上去與遍布中國(guó)各地的眾多工廠沒(méi)什么不同。但估值115億美元的該公司絕非等閑之輩。它將成為一家國(guó)家冠軍企業(yè)，相當(dāng)于中國(guó)的松下(Panasonic);成為北京方面雄心勃勃計(jì)劃的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵部分，目的是改寫全球電池市場(chǎng)版圖，利用來(lái)自電動(dòng)車的日益增長(zhǎng)的需求。

“We want to become a leading enterprise, like the front carriage of a train, driving an entire supply chain,” says Neill Yang, CATL’s marketing director. His office overlooks cranes and cement mixers, which are building a dormitory and offices to house 20,000 workers.

CATL市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷總監(jiān)楊琦(Neill Yang)說(shuō)：“我們希望成為一家龍頭企業(yè)，就像帶動(dòng)整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈的火車頭。”他的辦公室俯瞰著不少起重機(jī)和混凝土攪拌車，它們正在建造可容納2萬(wàn)名員工的宿舍樓和辦公樓。

CATL, which had capacity to produce 7.6 gigawatts of batteries last year according to Goldman Sachs, says that by 2020 it plans to produce more than the gigafactory, the Tesla Motors and Panasonic joint venture that opened in Nevada in January and is expected to be the largest producer in the US. That would potentially make it the biggest battery factory in the world.

根據(jù)高盛(Goldman Sachs)的數(shù)據(jù)，CATL去年的電池產(chǎn)能為7.6吉瓦時(shí)(GWh)。該公司表示，計(jì)劃到2020年將產(chǎn)能提升至超過(guò)“超級(jí)工廠”(gigafactory)——特斯拉汽車(Tesla Motors)與松下的合資公司，今年1月在內(nèi)華達(dá)州投產(chǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)將成為美國(guó)最大電池生產(chǎn)商。那將使CATL有可能成為全球最大的電池企業(yè)。

Backed by aggressive government policies — ranging from subsidies for electric vehicles to restrictions on foreign rivals — China’s battery companies are beginning to dominate an industry which has been led for three decades by South Korean and Japanese manufacturers such as Panasonic, which makes the battery cells for Tesla cars.

在激進(jìn)的政府政策——從為電動(dòng)車提供補(bǔ)貼到限制外國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手——的支持下，中國(guó)電池企業(yè)正開始主導(dǎo)行業(yè)，而該行業(yè)過(guò)去30年一直由韓國(guó)和日本電池制造商(如為特斯拉汽車制造電源電芯的松下)引領(lǐng)。

Beijing last week called for companies to double electric vehicle battery capacity by 2020 and encouraged them to invest in factories overseas. As carmakers invest more heavily in electric vehicles the lithium-ion battery will be a key technology for at least the next decade, creating a market Goldman Sachs estimates will be worth $40bn by 2025 and dominated by China.

不久前，中國(guó)政府呼吁國(guó)內(nèi)電池企業(yè)到2020年將電動(dòng)車電池產(chǎn)能提升一倍，鼓勵(lì)它們到海外投資建廠。隨著汽車制造商加大對(duì)電動(dòng)車的投入，鋰離子電池至少在未來(lái)10年將是一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，從而創(chuàng)建一個(gè)巨大市場(chǎng)。據(jù)高盛估計(jì)，到2025年這個(gè)市場(chǎng)將價(jià)值400億美元，并由中國(guó)主導(dǎo)。

“It will not be easy to surpass Japanese and South Korean companies,” says Mr Yang. “But we think over the next 10 years, there may only be 10 lithium battery producers left, with the top three taking 60 per cent of the market.”

“超越日韓企業(yè)并非易事，”楊琦說(shuō)，“但我們認(rèn)為，未來(lái)10年期間，最終可能只會(huì)剩下10家鋰電池生產(chǎn)商，實(shí)力最強(qiáng)的3家將占有60%的市場(chǎng)。”

Since 2012 China has spent billions of renminbi subsiding its electric carmakers, turning Shenzhen-based BYD, which is 25 per cent owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, into the world’s largest electric car and bus maker with a market capitalisation of $18.7bn. As well as boosting supply China is also creating demand: by 2020 it predicts 5m electric vehicles will be on its roads, from 1m today.

自2012年以來(lái)，中國(guó)支出了數(shù)十億元人民幣補(bǔ)貼國(guó)內(nèi)電動(dòng)車制造商，將總部位于深圳的比亞迪(BYD)打造成了全球最大的電動(dòng)汽車和客車制造商，市值達(dá)187億美元。沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)擁有比亞迪大約10%股份。在提振供應(yīng)的同時(shí)，中國(guó)也在創(chuàng)造需求：到2020年，預(yù)計(jì)電動(dòng)車保有量將從現(xiàn)在的100萬(wàn)輛增長(zhǎng)至500萬(wàn)輛。

China’s approach has echoes of the one it took on solar power a decade ago. It dominated the industry by lowering costs and driving prices down by 70 per cent and could do the same for batteries, says Gordon Orr, former Asia chairman of McKinsey. That would make electric cars more competitive — batteries account for up to half the total vehicle cost — but it could also mean a drastic loss of market share for manufacturers in the rest of Asia, the US and Europe.

中國(guó)發(fā)展電池產(chǎn)業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略讓人聯(lián)想起10年前中國(guó)發(fā)展太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電行業(yè)走過(guò)的道路。麥肯錫(McKinsey)前亞洲區(qū)董事長(zhǎng)歐高敦(Gordon Orr)稱，中國(guó)通過(guò)降低成本和使價(jià)格下降70%，主導(dǎo)了太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電行業(yè)，如今在電池領(lǐng)域也可能取得這樣的成就。這將使電動(dòng)車更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力(電池占電動(dòng)車總成本多達(dá)一半)，但這也可能意味著亞洲其他地區(qū)、美國(guó)和歐洲的電池制造商將失去大量市場(chǎng)份額。

“We know how [solar] panned out. China got the net result it wanted but in the process [there was] billions of dollars of value destruction,” Mr Orr says. “I do see the characteristics of heading down that same path, and whether it’s CATL or others who win at the end is impossible to predict.”

“我們知道(太陽(yáng)能行業(yè))的結(jié)局。中國(guó)得到了它想要的最終結(jié)果，但這一過(guò)程伴隨著巨額的價(jià)值摧毀，”歐高敦說(shuō)，“我的確看到了電池行業(yè)正在走上同一條路徑的特征，但無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)是CATL還是其他企業(yè)能笑到最后。”

In every device

用于每個(gè)電子設(shè)備

Lithium-ion batteries revolutionised the consumer electronics market after Sony commercialised them in 1981. From the Walkman to the iPhone they form a central part of the gadgets in everyday life. Now they are set to play an equally big role in transportation, helping to reduce the dependence on oil.

自1981年索尼(Sony)實(shí)現(xiàn)鋰離子電池商業(yè)化后，這種電池徹底改變了消費(fèi)電子市場(chǎng)。從隨身聽(Walkman)到iPhone，它們成了日常生活中所有電子設(shè)備的中心部件。如今，它們勢(shì)必將在交通領(lǐng)域扮演同樣重要的角色，幫助人類減輕對(duì)石油的依賴。

Since the 1980s battery production for the electronics industry has been dominated by companies in South Korea and Japan. But China has caught up. In 2013 it outpaced Korea as the world’s largest supplier of lithium batteries for all electronic devices, according to Goldman. A year later that lead increased as China’s electric vehicle market took off. In 2016 507,000 battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold in China, an increase of 50 per cent over the previous 12 months.

自上世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)，電子工業(yè)的電池生產(chǎn)一直由韓國(guó)和日本企業(yè)主導(dǎo)，但中國(guó)已經(jīng)趕上來(lái)。高盛的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2013年，中國(guó)超越韓國(guó)，成為全球最大電子設(shè)備鋰電池供應(yīng)國(guó)。一年后，隨著中國(guó)電動(dòng)車市場(chǎng)開始起飛，這種領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。2016年，中國(guó)售出了50.7萬(wàn)輛純電動(dòng)和插電式混合動(dòng)力車，比上一年增長(zhǎng)50%。

While Panasonic is the world’s largest supplier of electric vehicle batteries globally, China’s BYD and CATL were just behind, according to figures collated by Bernstein, the research group.

研究機(jī)構(gòu)伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)整理的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，雖然松下仍是全球最大的電動(dòng)車電池供應(yīng)商，但中國(guó)的比亞迪和CATL緊隨其后。

“The Japanese invent it, the Koreans look to expand and build it out and the Chinese end up dominating it as that’s where the market ultimately is,” says Duncan Goodwin, head of global resources equities for fund manager Barings. “We are going to see a significant step up in manufacturing capacity driven by China and Chinese demand.”

“日本人發(fā)明了它，韓國(guó)人尋求擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，而中國(guó)人最終占據(jù)了主導(dǎo)地位，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)最終是在中國(guó)，”基金管理公司霸菱(Barings)環(huán)球資源板塊股票主管鄧肯•古德溫(Duncan Goodwin)表示，“我們將看到由中國(guó)和中國(guó)的需求推動(dòng)的制造能力顯著提升。”

If Chinese battery companies deliver on their targets they will have capacity to produce 121 GWh of batteries by 2020, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. That compares with a target of 35 GWh for Tesla’s gigafactory when it reaches full capacity next year. A single GWh would power 40,000 electric cars to each travel 100km.

根據(jù)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)的數(shù)據(jù)，如果中國(guó)電池企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)各自的目標(biāo)，到2020年它們將擁有生產(chǎn)121吉瓦時(shí)電池的產(chǎn)能。相比之下，特斯拉的超級(jí)工廠明年達(dá)到滿負(fù)荷生產(chǎn)能力時(shí)的目標(biāo)產(chǎn)能為35吉瓦時(shí)。1吉瓦時(shí)可以驅(qū)動(dòng)4萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)車行駛100公里。

“The Chinese are massively building up their capacity to get a stranglehold on this market,” says Simon Moores, head of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in London.

倫敦Benchmark Mineral Intelligence負(fù)責(zé)人西蒙• 穆爾斯(Simon Moores)表示：“中國(guó)企業(yè)正在大規(guī)模提升它們的產(chǎn)能，以便主宰這一市場(chǎng)。”

Foreign companies at bay

走投無(wú)路的外國(guó)公司

In 2015 in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing, South Korea’s LG Chem opened a battery factory. The same year Samsung SDI followed suit, opening a plant in Xian in central China and declaring that it would “forge its foothold in the world’s biggest new energy vehicle market”. A year later Beijing released a list of companies allowed to supply batteries in the country. Not a single foreign company was included.

2015年，在華東的南京市，韓國(guó)LG化學(xué)(LG Chem)開設(shè)了一家電池廠。同年，三星SDI(Samsung SDI)也跟著在華中的西安建起一家電池廠，并宣布該公司將“在世界最大新能源汽車市場(chǎng)打下立足之地”。一年后，中國(guó)政府公布了一份允許在中國(guó)供應(yīng)電池的企業(yè)名單。沒(méi)有一家外國(guó)公司包括在內(nèi)。

Separately Beijing released draft guidelines at the end of last year that said car battery manufacturers would need to have at least 8 GWh of production capacity in China to qualify for subsidies — a target that only BYD and CATL can meet.

此外，中國(guó)政府去年底發(fā)布的行業(yè)指引草案稱，電動(dòng)車電池制造商必須在中國(guó)至少擁有8吉瓦時(shí)的產(chǎn)能，才有資格獲得補(bǔ)貼——只有比亞迪和CATL滿足這一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

“China seeks to acquire world-class foreign battery technology while keeping overall Chinese ownership and control,” says Michael Dunne, head of Dunne Automotive in Hong Kong. “It has been very careful to cultivate local battery champions while using licensing procedures to hold foreign companies at bay.”

“中國(guó)一邊設(shè)法獲取世界級(jí)外國(guó)電池技術(shù)，一邊保持總體的所有權(quán)和控制權(quán)，”位于香港的鄧恩汽車(Dunne Automotive)的邁克•鄧恩(Michael Dunne)說(shuō)，“中國(guó)一直在精心栽培本國(guó)的電池冠軍企業(yè)，同時(shí)利用審批程序擋住外國(guó)公司。”

BYD has particularly benefited from government support. Beijing has provided subsidies for electric buses using lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, a type used by BYD but not by many foreign manufacturers due to its lower power capacity. As a result BYD sold 11,000 of its e-buses last year, up from virtually zero in 2013, according to Macquarie. “The [Chinese] tailor-made the subsidy programme to make sure neither Samsung or LG Chem would get any part of it,” says one international commodity trader.

比亞迪尤其受益于政府支持。中國(guó)曾為使用鋰-鐵磷酸鹽(LFP)電池的電動(dòng)客車提供補(bǔ)貼，而只有比亞迪使用這種類型的電池，由于其容量太低，許多外國(guó)制造商都不采用。其結(jié)果是，根據(jù)麥格理(Macquarie)的數(shù)據(jù)，比亞迪去年銷售了1.1萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)客車，而其2013年的電動(dòng)客車銷量幾近于零。一位國(guó)際大宗商品交易員表示：“(中國(guó))量身定做的補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃就是為了確保三星或LG化學(xué)得不到任何補(bǔ)貼。”

To allow electric cars to go farther on a single charge, a critical factor for batteries is their energy density. For now China lags behind Korean makers in terms of the technology to provide greater energy density, according to Bernstein analysts. The frontrunners in the market are LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SK Innovation and Panasonic “with Chinese suppliers playing catch-up,” it says.

要讓電動(dòng)車充一次電行駛更遠(yuǎn)，對(duì)電池而言，關(guān)鍵是能量密度。伯恩斯坦的分析師們表示，就目前而言，在掌握提供更大能量密度的技術(shù)方面，中國(guó)落后于韓國(guó)電池制造商。伯恩斯坦稱，電池市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)跑者包括LG化學(xué)、三星SDI、SK Innovation及松下，“中國(guó)供應(yīng)商在追趕”。

“Because the Chinese have artificial government protection they are able to grow scale that’s bigger than the Koreans,” says Mark Newman, an analyst at Bernstein. “They are still a couple of years behind but they’re narrowing the gap due to their scale.”

“因?yàn)橹袊?guó)企業(yè)有人為的政府保護(hù)，它們能夠在規(guī)模上超過(guò)韓國(guó)企業(yè)，”伯恩斯坦分析師馬克•紐曼(Mark Newman)說(shuō)，“它們?cè)诩夹g(shù)上仍落后幾年，但它們的規(guī)模正讓它們縮小這種差距。”

Increasing the amount of power the battery can store on one charge will be crucial. But that will require continued innovation, says Varun Sivaram, a specialist in energy security at the Council on Foreign Relations.

增加電池一次充電可以存儲(chǔ)的電量將是至關(guān)重要的。但美國(guó)外交關(guān)系協(xié)會(huì)(Council on Foreign Relations)能源安全專家Varun Sivaram表示，這需要不斷創(chuàng)新。

“In electric vehicles if you keep decreasing the cost but don’t increase the performance you reach a limit — the car’s too expensive because the energy density is not high enough,” Mr Sivaram says. “My belief is that the [Chinese companies] will not ultimately win out. You will need higher energy density batteries and manufacturers who have the next generation technology will win.”

“在電動(dòng)車這一行，如果不斷降低成本，但不提升性能，就會(huì)觸及一個(gè)極限——這種車太貴，因?yàn)槟芰棵芏炔粔蚋撸?rdquo;Varun Sivaram說(shuō)，“我認(rèn)為，(中國(guó)企業(yè))將不會(huì)笑到最后。未來(lái)需要更高能量密度的電池，擁有下一代技術(shù)的制造商才會(huì)勝出。”

Access to raw materials

獲取原料

Even more than the subsidies or barriers to foreign operators, the greatest advantage for Chinese battery manufacturers over rivals such as Tesla is access to raw materials. Chinese companies have been making inroads over the past year into the lithium-ion supply chain, buying up mining assets from cobalt to lithium to help cut costs.

對(duì)外國(guó)電池制造商而言，比得不到補(bǔ)貼或遭遇種種障礙更令它們擔(dān)憂的，是中國(guó)電池制造商相比特斯拉等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的最大優(yōu)勢(shì)：獲取原料。過(guò)去一年，中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)鋰離子供應(yīng)鏈連連出手，買下鈷、鋰等礦業(yè)資產(chǎn)以降低成本。

This year Ganfeng Lithium, one of the country’s largest producers of the battery chemical, bought a 19.9 per cent stake in an Argentine lithium project. The deal followed on the heels of a purchase last year of a 2.1 per cent stake in Chile’s SQM, the world’s largest lithium producer, by Tianqi Lithium.

今年，中國(guó)最大鋰生產(chǎn)商之一——贛鋒鋰業(yè)收購(gòu)了阿根廷一個(gè)鋰項(xiàng)目19.9%的股份。去年，天齊鋰業(yè)(Tianqi Lithium)收購(gòu)了智利SQM公司2.1%的股份，后者是全球最大的鋰生產(chǎn)商。

Similarly in cobalt, China Molybdenum, a mining company partially owned by a Chinese local government, paid $2.65bn last year for the Tenke mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The mine contains one of the world’s largest concentrations of cobalt and offers “security of supply of a critical battery material for decades to come,” according to Investec. Cobalt traders say most of Tenke’s supply is likely to go back to China, where prices have doubled since October.

在鈷方面也一樣，去年，中國(guó)地方政府參股的洛陽(yáng)鉬業(yè)(China Molybdenum)斥資26.5億美元收購(gòu)了剛果民主共和國(guó)的Tenke銅鈷礦。根據(jù)Investec的數(shù)據(jù)，該礦是世界鈷儲(chǔ)量最大的礦之一，可以保證這種關(guān)鍵電池材料未來(lái)幾十年的供應(yīng)安全。鈷交易員稱，Tenke的大部分鈷供應(yīng)可能被運(yùn)回中國(guó)，中國(guó)的鈷價(jià)自去年10月以來(lái)翻了一倍。

Chinese companies are also likely to disrupt the battery material supply chain and drive down prices, according to analysts at HSBC. “China’s aggressive push to promote the domestic electric vehicle market will accelerate an expansion in the local ecosystem,” they said.

匯豐(HSBC)的分析師們表示，中國(guó)企業(yè)還可能擾亂電池材料供應(yīng)鏈，導(dǎo)致價(jià)格下跌。“中國(guó)促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)電動(dòng)車市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的積極努力，將加速地方產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的擴(kuò)張，”他們說(shuō)。

In Ningde CATL says it has a staff of 1,000 people working in its research and development department. The company has more than 2,000 battery-related patents and analysts at Goldman Sachs said in January they expect it to “catch up with global peers in product quality”.

在寧德，CATL稱公司研發(fā)部門擁有1000名員工。該公司擁有2000余項(xiàng)電池相關(guān)專利，而高盛的分析師們1月表示，預(yù)計(jì)該公司將“在產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量上趕上全球同行”。

National Electric Vehicle Sweden, which bought the bankrupt Saab carmaker in 2012, signed a battery supply agreement with CATL earlier this year.

今年早些時(shí)候，瑞典國(guó)家電動(dòng)車公司(NEVS)與CATL簽署了一項(xiàng)電池供應(yīng)協(xié)議，前者于2012年收購(gòu)了破產(chǎn)的汽車制造商薩博(Saab)。

“The Chinese government has a list of approved battery makers and if you don’t choose one of those you will not be allowed to apply for subsidies on the Chinese market,” Anders Bjornberg, director of R&D at NEVS, says. “CATL are also competitive with the Japanese and Koreans, it’s not that we have taken the second-best choice. It’s the best choice in China.”

“中國(guó)政府有一份獲批的電池制造商名單，如果不選擇其中某家，就不會(huì)被允許在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)申請(qǐng)補(bǔ)貼，”NEVS的研發(fā)總監(jiān)安德斯•比約恩貝里(Anders Bjornberg)表示，“CATL同樣能夠與日韓企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這并不意味著我們接受了次優(yōu)選擇。這是在中國(guó)的最佳選擇。”

Mr Yang says the company’s first aim is to serve domestic Chinese customers rather than export to the global market.

楊琦表示，CATL的首要目標(biāo)是服務(wù)國(guó)內(nèi)客戶，而非出口全球市場(chǎng)。

Yet CATL cannot hide its global ambitions. Mr Yang concedes the company hopes to work with Tesla, has been in contact with General Motors and its current clients include Volkswagen and BMW. In January it bought a 22 per cent stake in Finnish auto supplier Valmet Automotive. It also has an eye on building a factory in Europe. That’s “not a distant prospect,” Mr Yang says.

但CATL掩飾不了其全球雄心。楊琦承認(rèn)，該公司希望與特斯拉合作，也一直在與通用汽車(General Motors)接洽，而現(xiàn)有客戶包括大眾(Volkswagen)和寶馬(BMW)。今年1月，CATL收購(gòu)了芬蘭汽車供應(yīng)商瓦爾麥特汽車(Valmet Automotive) 22%的股份。CATL還打算在歐洲建一家工廠。這“不是一個(gè)遙遠(yuǎn)的前景，”楊琦說(shuō)。

The rivals: Japan prepares for a fight it cannot afford to lose

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手：日本準(zhǔn)備為一場(chǎng)輸不起的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)而戰(zhàn)

When Japan looks at the global battery market in 2017 — the shifting technologies, the emerging players and the intensifying competition — it recalls the past two decades of industrial history and winces.

舉目2017年的全球電池市場(chǎng)——技術(shù)變化、新對(duì)手崛起以及日趨激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)——會(huì)讓日本回憶起過(guò)去20年的工業(yè)史和各種尷尬瞬間。

It has watched as its dominant position in semiconductors, TVs, white goods, mobile phones and even high speed rail has been first dented then battered by competition from South Korea, China and elsewhere. But batteries, runs the mantra from everyone in the supply chain, is a battle Japan has told itself it “cannot lose”.

日本眼睜睜地看著本國(guó)在半導(dǎo)體、電視機(jī)、白色家電、手機(jī)甚至高鐵領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)地位被韓國(guó)、中國(guó)及其他地區(qū)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手先是一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)蠶食，然后是重創(chuàng)。但是供應(yīng)鏈上每個(gè)人的箴言是，電池是日本告訴自己“輸不起”的一場(chǎng)角力。

As well as Beijing’s high-profile backing of its domestic battery industry, much of Japan’s urgency, say lithium experts, is driven by the assumption that the fundamental dynamics of the lithium market are poised to change: batteries are about to overtake all other industrial users of the metal as the prime source of demand. At the corporate level, say lawyers involved in recent battery supply chain deals, Japan’s determination has prompted an acceleration of asset sales, purchases and joint-venture formations.

除了北京方面高調(diào)支持國(guó)內(nèi)電池行業(yè)外，鋰專家們表示，日本的緊迫感有很大一部分源于假設(shè)鋰市場(chǎng)的格局即將發(fā)生根本變化：電池就要超過(guò)這種金屬的其他所有工業(yè)用途，成為主要需求來(lái)源。在企業(yè)層面，參與近期電池供應(yīng)鏈交易的律師們表示，日本的決心加速了資產(chǎn)出售、并購(gòu)以及合資公司的成立。

High-performance materials companies like Ube Industries, Sumitomo and Central Glass are investing heavily in new battery production capacity around Asia. Others like Murata Manufacturing are pushing ahead with acquisitions. In July, the company is expected to complete the purchase of Sony’s battery business, before working on a supply deal with Samsung Electronics.

宇部興產(chǎn)(Ube Industries)、住友(Sumitomo)及Central Glass等高性能材料企業(yè)，正在亞洲各地大舉投資于新的電池生產(chǎn)能力。其他企業(yè)，如村田制作所(Murata Manufacturing)，正在推進(jìn)并購(gòu)。今年7月，村田制作所預(yù)計(jì)將完成對(duì)索尼電池業(yè)務(wù)的收購(gòu)，然后將致力于與三星電子(Samsung Electronics)達(dá)成一項(xiàng)供應(yīng)協(xié)議。

Japan’s sense of panic has been intensified by the Trump administration’s scuppering of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. That pact, say producers, was to have been beneficial to Japan’s battery industry, which had already begun to invest in capacity in Vietnam on the assumption it could then export to the US and Canada.

特朗普政府撕毀《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(TPP)之舉加劇了日本的恐慌感覺。生產(chǎn)商稱，該協(xié)議本來(lái)有望令日本電池工業(yè)受益，日本原本已經(jīng)開始在越南投資于電池產(chǎn)能，以為可以讓產(chǎn)品行銷美國(guó)和加拿大。