中國(guó)大型房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)公司負(fù)債嚴(yán)重

When Li Keqiang, China’s premier, told the National People’s Congress this month that the government was worried about “high leverage in non-financial Chinese firms”, finance directors of the country’s property developers must have winced.

本月，當(dāng)中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院總理李克強(qiáng)在全國(guó)人大會(huì)議上表示政府擔(dān)心“非金融企業(yè)杠桿率較高”時(shí)，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商的財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)們肯定哆嗦了一下。

Balanced between their reliance on ballooning debt markets, which Beijing wants to bring under control, and a housing boom that authorities want to cool, developers have defied predictions of collapse for years.

多年來(lái)，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商一直在依賴(政府希望收緊控制的)日益擴(kuò)大的債券市場(chǎng)和(政府希望降溫的)房地產(chǎn)熱潮之間保持著平衡，從而避免了市場(chǎng)如人們預(yù)測(cè)的那樣崩盤。

Even now, few analysts are predicting disaster but they say high leverage is a rising risk as margins come under pressure.

即便是現(xiàn)在也幾乎沒(méi)有分析師預(yù)測(cè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)會(huì)爆發(fā)災(zāi)難，但他們表示，隨著利潤(rùn)率面臨壓力，高杠桿的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益上升。

“China’s more heavily indebted developers are living on a knife’s edge,” says Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research, an investment research group in Hong Kong.

香港投資研究集團(tuán)Orient Capital Research董事總經(jīng)理安德魯•科利爾(Andrew Collier)表示：“中國(guó)負(fù)債較為嚴(yán)重的開(kāi)發(fā)商正處在刀鋒邊緣。”

Real estate developers are facing a funding squeeze just as they are entering their first downturn in three years. House prices rose 40 per cent in big cities last year but have stalled in 2017. Single-digit price declines are expected this year and sales revenues for the bigger developers could fall by as much as 10 per cent, according to S&P Global Ratings, as transaction volumes decline. Last year, revenues rose 20 per cent.

房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商正面臨資金緊張，它們正進(jìn)入3年來(lái)首次低迷。去年，中國(guó)大城市房?jī)r(jià)上漲40%，但2017年陷入停滯。根據(jù)標(biāo)普全球評(píng)級(jí)(S&P Global Ratings)的數(shù)據(jù)，隨著交易量下滑，預(yù)計(jì)今年房?jī)r(jià)將出現(xiàn)一位數(shù)下跌，規(guī)模較大開(kāi)發(fā)商的銷售額可能會(huì)下降最多10%。去年，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商銷售收入增長(zhǎng)20%。

“China’s big developers stand out compared to their peers worldwide for being highly leveraged, thanks to their access to local banks and capital markets,” says Wang Xinling, lead analyst at China Policy, a think-tank in Beijing.

北京智庫(kù)中國(guó)政策評(píng)論(China Policy)的首席分析師王欣玲表示：“與全球同行相比，中國(guó)大型開(kāi)發(fā)商高度負(fù)債的情況非常明顯，這種狀況是因?yàn)樗鼈兛梢岳玫胤姐y行和資本市場(chǎng)。”

On top of a slowing market, many funding sources favoured by property companies are coming under threat. Beijing began restricting funding last October, ordering regulators to limit equity and bond sales by developers as part of efforts to rein in the property market.

除了市場(chǎng)放緩，開(kāi)發(fā)商青睞的很多融資來(lái)源正面臨威脅。去年10月，中國(guó)開(kāi)始限制融資、命令監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)限制開(kāi)發(fā)商的股票和債券發(fā)行，這是控制房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)舉措的一部分。

Authorities have also clamped down on the inclusion of property loans in wealth management products, which had in effect allowed banks to keep a portion of their lending off the books. The ability to tap WMPs had become a key source of capital for developers, according to several analysts. 中國(guó)當(dāng)局還一直打擊將房地產(chǎn)貸款納入理財(cái)產(chǎn)品的行為，這些理財(cái)產(chǎn)品實(shí)際上允許銀行將部分貸款轉(zhuǎn)移到資產(chǎn)負(fù)

債表以外。據(jù)一些分析師稱，能夠利用理財(cái)產(chǎn)品成為了開(kāi)發(fā)商的一個(gè)重要資金來(lái)源。

“We believe the funding restriction will weaken Chinese property developers’ access to alternative financing and increase their cash flow burden,” says Cindy Huang, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

標(biāo)普全球評(píng)級(jí)的信貸分析師黃馨慧(Cindy Huang)表示：“我們認(rèn)為，融資限制將削弱中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商利用其它融資來(lái)源的能力并加大他們的現(xiàn)金流負(fù)擔(dān)。”

Evergrande, China’s second-biggest property group by sales, is the most leveraged among mainland and Hong Kong-listed developers, according to data from Wind Information. Its net debt was 605 per cent of its equity as of June 2016, versus the sector average of 90.

根據(jù)萬(wàn)得資訊(Wind Information)的數(shù)據(jù)，在中國(guó)內(nèi)地和香港上市的房地產(chǎn)公司中，恒大(Evergrande)負(fù)債率最高。截至2016年6月，該公司的凈負(fù)債權(quán)益比為605%，行業(yè)平均水平為90%。以2016年銷售額計(jì)，恒大是中國(guó)最大的房地產(chǎn)公司。

“Evergrande is the poster child for the wackiness of the Chinese property market, where property is an asset to be held rather than something to live in,” says Anne Stevenson-Yang, director of research at J Capital Research.

美奇金(J Capital Research)研究主管楊思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)表示：“恒大是中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)反常之處的典型代表，在中國(guó)，房地產(chǎn)被當(dāng)做資產(chǎn)持有，而不是用來(lái)居住。”

The developer’s borrowings increased almost 50 per cent in the second half of last year to Rmb565bn ($82bn), according to a company filing last month.

根據(jù)上個(gè)月恒大披露的文件，去年下半年，恒大借款增長(zhǎng)近一半，至5650億元人民幣(合820億美元)。

Yet the company has repeatedly refinanced debt in previous years from banks and bond investors emboldened, say JPMorgan analysts, by a perception that Evergrande is too big to fail.

然而，摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析師表示，前幾年，恒大多次從銀行和債券投資者那里對(duì)債務(wù)進(jìn)行了再融資，認(rèn)為恒大“太大而不能倒”的觀點(diǎn)給了銀行和債券投資者膽量。

Greenland Holdings, number four last year in terms of property sales, has similarly heavy debts. Its net debt to equity ratio was almost 300 per cent at the end of September, according to estimates by Huachuang Securities, an investment group. As of the end of June, it held net debt of Rmb185bn.

中國(guó)第四大房地產(chǎn)公司(以去年房地產(chǎn)銷售額計(jì))綠地集團(tuán)(Greenland Holdings)也背負(fù)著沉重的債務(wù)。根據(jù)投資集團(tuán)華創(chuàng)證券(Huachuang Securities)的估算，到去年9月底，綠地集團(tuán)的凈負(fù)債權(quán)益比接近于300%。到去年6月底，該公司凈負(fù)債為1850億元人民幣。

State-owned status is an added benefit that has given Greenland privileged access to loans in return for partnering with the government for infrastructure projects.

國(guó)有企業(yè)的身份是一項(xiàng)額外優(yōu)勢(shì)，綠地可以通過(guò)與政府合作開(kāi)發(fā)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目?jī)?yōu)先獲得貸款。

“The property sector is the foundation for China’s economy,” says Jonas Short, head of NSBO China, a policy research group in Beijing.

北京政策研究機(jī)構(gòu)藍(lán)橡資本(NSBO)中國(guó)公司負(fù)責(zé)人喬納斯•肖特(Jonas Short)表示：“房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)。”

Close links between corporate and state interests have tempted investors to consider big property groups as sure-fire investments, no matter the scale of their debt or asset quality.

企業(yè)和政府利益的密切聯(lián)系促使投資者把大型房地產(chǎn)公司視為穩(wěn)賺不賠的投資，而不管它們的債務(wù)規(guī)?；蛸Y產(chǎn)質(zhì)量如何。

“Foreign investors look at these companies and think — their bond yields are relatively high, and they must be backed by the government, so why not buy?” says J Capital’s Ms Stevenson-Yang.

美奇金的楊思安表示：“外國(guó)投資者看到這些公司，然后會(huì)認(rèn)為，這些公司的債券收益率相對(duì)較高，并且它們肯定得到了政府的支持，那么為什么不買呢?”

Developers are also adept at avoiding writedowns on assets, often halting sales when prices begin to slip to preserve their valuations, adds Ms Stevenson-Yang.

楊思安補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商還善于避免資產(chǎn)減記，通常會(huì)在價(jià)格開(kāi)始下跌時(shí)暫停銷售，以保護(hù)它們的估值。

Another tactic is to classify empty buildings as investment properties rather than inventory, which is marked at market prices. GMT Research, an accounting research group, said it visited 40 Evergrande developments and found that much of the company’s “investment properties” were empty hotels and shop fronts or abandoned parking lots.

另一個(gè)手段是將空置樓盤列為投資物業(yè)(而不是庫(kù)存)，這些資產(chǎn)以市場(chǎng)價(jià)格計(jì)值。會(huì)計(jì)研究機(jī)構(gòu)GMT Research表示，該公司在探訪恒大40個(gè)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目后發(fā)現(xiàn)，該公司的很多“投資物業(yè)”都是空置的酒店和底商或者廢棄的停車場(chǎng)。

“In China it’s not unusual for large development sites to take five to 10 years to be fully sold,” says Su Aik Lim, senior director at Fitch Ratings. “The question is whether they will be fully sold.”

“在中國(guó)，大型開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目要花5到10年的時(shí)間才能全部賣掉，這是常有的事，”惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)(Fitch Ratings)的高級(jí)總監(jiān)林樹(shù)毅(Su Aik Lim)表示，“問(wèn)題是他們是否會(huì)全部賣掉。”

Yet so far there are few signs of acute financing strain among the biggest developers. Even as local bond markets closed, many property groups have this year tapped international markets, where appetite for their high-yielding paper remains robust.

然而，目前幾乎沒(méi)有跡象表明，大型開(kāi)發(fā)商面臨嚴(yán)峻的融資壓力。隨著地方債券市場(chǎng)的關(guān)閉，很多開(kāi)發(fā)商集團(tuán)今年轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)際市場(chǎng)，在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)，投資者對(duì)于中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商的高收益?zhèn)耘d趣高漲。

Last week Evergrande attracted bids worth $5.4bn for the sale of $1.5bn in bonds.

上周，恒大發(fā)行了15億美元債券，吸引了54億美元的超額認(rèn)購(gòu)。

“A lot of people have made money from buying these bonds at the bottom and there are real assets behind them, too,” says one China debt banker. “People feel like they’ve seen the worst and these guys are the survivors.”

“很多人因?yàn)槌踪?gòu)買這些債券賺了錢，這些債券背后還有實(shí)物資產(chǎn)的支撐，”一位從事債券業(yè)務(wù)的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)人士表示，“人們覺(jué)得他們看到過(guò)最糟糕的情況，這些公司是幸存者。”