Lex專欄：中國(guó)股票收益率可期

For an economy often said to be on the brink of collapse, China has been doing rather well. This year, the MSCI China index has delivered a return of 14 per cent, twice that of the MSCI All Countries World. Recent data look set to underpin a continuation of the run.

就一個(gè)老被說(shuō)處于崩潰邊緣的經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言，中國(guó)一直表現(xiàn)得相當(dāng)好。今年MSCI明晟中國(guó)指數(shù)(MSCI China index)已上漲14%，是MSCI明晟全球指數(shù)(MSCI All Country World)的兩倍。近期數(shù)據(jù)看來(lái)也支持這輪上漲持續(xù)下去。

Last week, official data showed China’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace since 2012. That good news has fed through to 2016 earnings reports. CLSA, a brokerage, notes that four-fifths of the companies that have reported results have met or beaten forecasts. Surprisingly, listed property companies, long a source of concern for high debt levels, realised very strong cash flow, helping to boost dividends. Consensus earnings growth for the current year has been revised up by 2 percentage points.

上周官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示中國(guó)制造業(yè)活動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)2012年以來(lái)最快增速。這一好消息一直延伸到2016年盈利報(bào)告。券商里昂證券(CLSA)指出，已公布業(yè)績(jī)的公司有五分之四達(dá)到或超過(guò)預(yù)期。令人驚訝的是，長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)因高債務(wù)水平引起擔(dān)憂的上市房地產(chǎn)公司實(shí)現(xiàn)了非常強(qiáng)勁的現(xiàn)金流，有助于提振股息。對(duì)本年度盈利增長(zhǎng)的共識(shí)預(yù)期已上調(diào)2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

The improvement is broad based. Dovetailing with data showing factories stopped laying off workers for the first time in five years, consumer trends have been strong. January and February online retail sales rose 31 per cent year on year, defying the norm of a seasonal slowdown. Macau, a weathervane of Chinese consumption, also had a strong start to the year. Even stodgy banks look set for a better 2017 after costs fell across the sector, notes Jefferies.

好轉(zhuǎn)是普遍的。與顯示五年來(lái)工廠首次停止裁員的數(shù)據(jù)相呼應(yīng)，消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)一直強(qiáng)勁。1月和2月網(wǎng)絡(luò)零售額同比增長(zhǎng)31%，打破了季節(jié)性放緩規(guī)律。中國(guó)消費(fèi)風(fēng)向標(biāo)澳門今年也有一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁開局。杰富瑞(Jefferies)指出，在行業(yè)成本整體下降后，就連笨重的銀行看來(lái)2017年都會(huì)有更佳表現(xiàn)。

Those in search of yield could do worse than look to the HSCEI, the index for Hong Kong-listed China shares, where yield is forecast to rise to nearly 4 per cent in 2017 versus 2 per cent for the MSCI. The latter includes more internet companies such as Alibaba, which in their growth phases tend to pay out less. For the HSCEI, the skew towards old economy state-owned enterprises is no longer the drag it was. With capacity reductions and improving demand, earnings at old industrials such as steel and miners have also picked up. And last month China Shenhua Energy, the state-owned coal miner, said it would pay a special dividend, equivalent to a mid-teens yield. With the government pushing more SOEs to pay out, Shenhua will not be the last.

對(duì)于尋求收益的人來(lái)說(shuō)，看看恒生中國(guó)企業(yè)指數(shù)(HSCEI，簡(jiǎn)稱國(guó)企指數(shù)，是追蹤香港上市內(nèi)地企業(yè)的指數(shù))是個(gè)不錯(cuò)的選擇。預(yù)計(jì)2017年國(guó)企指數(shù)收益率將上升至近4%，而MSCI指數(shù)為2%。后者包括更多互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)，比如阿里巴巴(Alibaba)，這類企業(yè)在增長(zhǎng)階段派息較少。至于國(guó)企指數(shù)，對(duì)傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)有企業(yè)的偏重將不再是過(guò)去那樣的拖累。隨著產(chǎn)能減少和需求增加，鋼鐵、礦業(yè)等傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)的盈利也有所回升。上個(gè)月國(guó)有煤礦企業(yè)中國(guó)神華能源(China Shenhua Energy)宣布將派發(fā)特別股息，相當(dāng)于百分之十幾的收益率。中國(guó)政府正推動(dòng)更多國(guó)企派息，神華能源不會(huì)是最后一個(gè)。