美聯(lián)儲6月可能再次加息

The Federal Reserve signalled it is close to another increase in short-term interest rates and is preparing to start paring back its multi-trillion dollar asset holdings this year as the US economy recovers.

美聯(lián)儲(Fed)釋放信號稱，它接近于再次提高短期利率，并準備隨著美國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，今年就開始削減其數(shù)萬億美元的資產(chǎn)頭寸。

Most Fed policymakers said at the May 2-3 rate-setting meeting that a further increase in short-term interest rates will be needed “soon” if the economy stays on track, in a sign that the central bank is preparing to tighten policy again as early as the June meeting.

在5月2日到3日的議息會議上，多數(shù)美聯(lián)儲政策制定者表示，如果經(jīng)濟保持在軌道上，“不久”將有必要進一步提升短期利率。這一跡象表明，美國央行準備最快在6月會議上就再次收緊政策。

Minutes from the meeting also showed the Fed is advancing in plans to pare back its balance sheet, with policymakers discussing a strategy for gradually scaling back reinvestments of maturing securities.

會議紀要還顯示，美聯(lián)儲正在推進縮減其資產(chǎn)負債表的計劃，政策制定者們討論了逐步減少對到期證券進行再投資的策略。

While growth slowed in the first quarter and inflation has been sluggish, the US central bank has been indicating that it expects the recovery to gain traction, supporting chair Janet Yellen’s plans to reduce the Fed’s crisis-era support for the economy.

盡管今年第一季度增長放緩，而通脹一直低迷，但美國央行一直在發(fā)出信號稱，它預(yù)計美國復(fù)蘇勢頭會不斷加強，從而支持美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)的計劃：將美聯(lián)儲對美國經(jīng)濟的危機時代支持力度降下來。

In its latest meeting the Fed kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.75 per cent to 1 per cent and said it sees slower growth as “transitory”. The Fed lifted rates by a quarter-point at its March 15 meeting and signalled at that time that it expected a total of two more increases this year.

在最新會議上，美聯(lián)儲將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標區(qū)間保持在0.75%到1%之間，并表示它認為增長放緩是“暫時的”。在3月15日的會議上，美聯(lián)儲將利率提高了0.25個百分點，并在當時發(fā)出信號稱，它預(yù)計今年總共還會有兩次加息。

While inflation has been soggy in recent months, policymakers said some of the slowdown was down to “idiosyncratic factors” including a drop in mobile phone charges. “Most participants viewed the recent softer inflation data as primarily reflecting transitory factors,” the minutes said.

盡管近幾個月通脹一直疲弱，但政策制定者們表示，這種放緩在一定程度上是由于“特異性因素”，其中包括移動電話費用的下跌。會議紀要稱：“多數(shù)與會者認為，近期較疲軟的通脹數(shù)據(jù)主要反映了暫時性因素的影響。”

“Most participants judged that if economic information came in about in line with their expectations, it would soon be appropriate for the committee to take another step in removing some policy accommodation,” the minutes said. 會議紀要還稱：“多數(shù)與會者判斷，如果陸續(xù)發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟信息與他們的預(yù)期大致相符，委員會不久再次采取措施移除部分寬松政策將是合適的。”

Markets see the chances of an upward move in rates at the June 14 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at just under 80 per cent, according to analysis of futures trading by CME Group before the minutes appeared.

根據(jù)會議紀要公布之前由芝加哥商品交易所集團(CME Group)對期貨交易開展的分析，市場認為6月14日的聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議上加息的可能性略低于80%。

Markets are set to focus increasingly on the Fed’s plans to pare back the $4.5tn balance sheet it amassed during the crisis. “Nearly all policymakers indicated that as long as the economy and path of the federal funds rate evolved as currently expected, it likely would be appropriate to begin reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings this year,” the minutes said.

市場勢必日益關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲縮減其在危機期間積累起來的4.5萬億美元資產(chǎn)負債表的計劃。會議紀要稱：“幾乎所有政策制定者表示，只要經(jīng)濟走向和聯(lián)邦基金利率的演變路徑符合目前的預(yù)期，今年開始減少美聯(lián)儲持有的證券可能是合適的。”