Lex專欄：中國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)為何瘋狂拿地？

China’s property developers have a habit of countering bad news with good. Bears expect a slowdown, given high net debt and government plans to rein in excessive borrowing. But core profits at big developers grew about 50 per cent on average in the most recent earnings reporting season. The sector cannot defy the bears for ever.

中國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商常常用好消息來反駁壞消息。鑒于凈債務(wù)高企和政府計劃遏制過度舉債，空頭人士預計房地產(chǎn)業(yè)增長放緩。但在最近的財報季，大型房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)的核心利潤平均增長50%左右。然而房地產(chǎn)業(yè)不可能永遠反駁空頭人士。

The business has already become tougher in two respects. First, the government has restricted land supply in an effort to forestall price drops, so it is harder for developers to increase land banks. Recent mergers in the sector have achieved this at lower cost than auctions.

房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)在兩個方面變得更為艱難。首先，中國政府為了防止價格下跌而限制土地供應(yīng)，因此房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商更難增加土地儲備。最近房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的合并讓開發(fā)商以比拍賣更低的成本獲得了土地。

Second, regulators are expected to limit residential property sales volumes by restricting consumers’ access to credit. As a result, Moody’s thinks sales growth will slow in the second half this year, after an 18 per cent jump in the first half.

其次，預計監(jiān)管機構(gòu)將通過限制消費者獲得信貸來限制住宅銷售。因此穆迪(Moody's)認為銷售在今年上半年飆升18%之后，將在下半年放緩。

There has been no margin squeeze so far. Sales price growth has outpaced the rate of increase in land costs, with the result that finished property still costs around twice what the land did. That is a ratio as high as it has been since 2013. But it is now likely to decline.

迄今利潤還沒有受到擠壓。銷售價格增長超過了土地成本增長，結(jié)果導致成品房價格仍然大約是土地價格的兩倍。自2013年以來一直都是這么高的比率。但現(xiàn)在該比率可能會下降。

If sales growth does slow, the largest groups will probably gain more market share. The share of the top 10 groups has already quadrupled in the past decade to a fifth. Buying land is a means of gaining scale in a consolidating industry.

如果銷售增長確實放緩，最大的房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)將可能獲得更大的市場份額。前十大房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的市場份額已經(jīng)在過去十年增長3倍，達到20%。在一個日益整合的行業(yè)里，買地是擴大規(guī)模的方式。

But it has come at a cost. In a heavily leveraged industry, Evergrande and Sunac stand out with net debt of more than twice shareholder’s equity, even after counting perpetual securities. The sector average is 70 per cent. Both groups have indicated that reducing debt is a priority. In the meantime, they will be helped by lower debt costs — these fell to a record low of 5.4 per cent in the first half. Agreed sales will help with cash flow once they are completed.

但這是有代價的。在一個高度杠桿化的行業(yè)里，恒大(Evergrande)和融創(chuàng)(Sunac)逾200%的凈負債權(quán)益比仍非常顯眼，而且這還是計入永續(xù)債之后的結(jié)果。該行業(yè)的平均比率是70%。兩家集團均表示，削減債務(wù)是重中之重。與此同時，債務(wù)成本下降也將對它們有利——今年上半年其債務(wù)成本下降至5.4%的創(chuàng)紀錄低點。約定的銷售一旦完成，還會為它們帶來現(xiàn)金流。

Growth in the value of newly acquired land has outpaced the growth in acreage. If that is because of savvier deals, fine. If it is because groups have loaded up on debt to buy speculative land in less mainstream locations, shareholders should be worried.

新獲得的土地的價值增長超過了土地面積的增長。如果這是得益于精明的交易，那沒什么問題。如果這是由于房地產(chǎn)集團大量舉債在不那么主流的地段購買投機性土地，股東們應(yīng)該感到擔心。