沙特“國家轉(zhuǎn)型計劃”面臨的油價困局

Just a year after its release, Saudi Arabia is reportedly slowing down the planned pace of the National Transformation Program, a bundle of targets and initiatives designed to deliver the “Vision 2030” plan to diversify the country’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil revenue.

出臺僅一年后，沙特阿拉伯據(jù)報道正放慢其“國家轉(zhuǎn)型計劃”(National Transformation Program)的節(jié)奏，該計劃包含一整套目標(biāo)和舉措，旨在實現(xiàn)《愿景2030》(Vision 2030)，推動經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣化，并降低對石油收入的依賴。

The NTP was exceedingly ambitious from the start, with a head-spinning 543 initiatives and 346 targets. It has a laudable focus on concrete targets, measurable outcomes, transparency and accountability, along with a strong focus on boosting the education and skill levels of Saudi Arabian citizens. At the same time, many of the goals were unrealistic — tripling non-oil revenue by 2020, for example — and the pace of reform has been slower than intended.

“國家轉(zhuǎn)型計劃”從一開始就過于雄心勃勃，包含讓人頭暈的543個舉措和346個目標(biāo)。它關(guān)注具體目標(biāo)、可衡量的結(jié)果、透明度和問責(zé)機(jī)制，還特別注重提高沙特阿拉伯公民的教育和技能水平，這些都值得稱贊。與此同時，很多目標(biāo)不切實際(例如到2020年將非石油收入增加至原有水平的三倍)，迄今的改革速度慢于預(yù)期。

The reset is not surprising, therefore. Announcing an attention-grabbing set of goals can be an effective way to galvanise a complex government bureaucracy, as well demonstrate seriousness to both citizens at home and international investors who have seen economic reform visions in the Gulf states come and go.

因此調(diào)整并不意外。宣布一攬子奪人眼球的目標(biāo)可能是動員復(fù)雜的政府官僚體制的有效方式，同時還向國民和國際投資者證明其認(rèn)真，后者曾不止一次目睹海灣國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革愿景不了了之。

Moving now to a still ambitious but more achievable set of targets reflects a recognition of how challenging the NTP is to implement. It also signals the kingdom’s intention to stay the course. Achieving a sizeable portion of the new targets would still reflect dramatic progress.

現(xiàn)在沙特正轉(zhuǎn)向仍然雄心勃勃、但更有望實現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)，這反映出該國承認(rèn)，“國家轉(zhuǎn)型計劃”實施起來非常具有挑戰(zhàn)性。此舉還表明沙特的初衷并未改變。實現(xiàn)可觀比例的新目標(biāo)，仍將反映戲劇性的進(jìn)步。

The challenge for Saudi Arabia, however, is that low oil prices restrict its room for fiscal manoeuvre. The International Monetary Fund estimates Saudi Arabia’s break-even oil price to be $84 per barrel (the price of Brent Crude is currently $53 per barrel). The kingdom is running large fiscal deficits and has seen its foreign reserves dwindle by almost a third since the end of 2014, to below $500bn. It can continue to borrow and draw on its reserves, but the prospect of “lower for longer” oil prices reinforces the imperative to shrink the fiscal hole by cutting state spending or raising other revenue.

然而，沙特阿拉伯面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是低油價限制了財政回旋空間。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)估計，沙特阿拉伯達(dá)到盈虧平衡的油價水平是每桶84美元(目前布倫特原油(Brent Crude)的價格為每桶53美元)。沙特運行著巨額財政赤字，而且自2014年底以來外匯儲備已縮減近三分之一，至不到5000億美元。該國可以繼續(xù)借款并動用儲備，但油價“在更長時間內(nèi)偏低”的前景，將增強(qiáng)該國通過削減政府支出或開辟其他財政收入來源來縮小財政赤字的必要性。

The dilemma Saudi Arabia faces is that the harsher the austerity measures, the greater the contractionary effect on the economy of sharp cuts in government spending. The IMF recently downgraded the outlook for growth in gross domestic product to 0.1 per cent for 2017 and 1.1 per cent for 2018.

沙特阿拉伯面臨的難題是，緊縮措施越嚴(yán)厲，政府支出大幅削減對經(jīng)濟(jì)的收縮效應(yīng)就越大。IMF最近將其對該國2017年和2018年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速的預(yù)測分別下調(diào)至0.1%和1.1%。

Moreover, cutting expenditure by shrinking the state payroll, imposing taxes or curtailing subsidies risks public backlash at a time of significant transition in the royal family, with the recent elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince. Austerity measures have already been curtailed. In April, King Salman reversed cuts to public sector pay and benefits, and in June reinstated pay that had been cut previously. The government has also delayed planned energy reforms.

另外，在沙特皇室家族經(jīng)歷重大過渡之際(王子穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)不久前被立為王儲)，通過裁減政府工作人員、征稅或限制補(bǔ)貼來減少支出，有引起公眾反彈之虞。緊縮舉措已被逆轉(zhuǎn)。今年4月，薩勒曼國王撤銷了削減公共部門薪資和福利的措施，并在6月恢復(fù)了此前被削減的薪資。政府還推遲了計劃中的能源改革。

The US shale revolution is a further challenge for the reform programme, as the ability of the Americans to ramp up output rapidly at lower prices than many expected seems to be putting a lid on oil’s upside. From an oil market standpoint, the news that the Saudis intend to pursue a slower pace of reform increases the pressure to boost revenue by maintaining the current Opec/non-Opec supply agreement. It also reinforces the importance of a successful initial public offering of Saudi Aramco in 2018, a key piece of the economic reform plan aimed at raising $100bn for a public investment fund.

美國頁巖革命對這項改革計劃構(gòu)成進(jìn)一步的挑戰(zhàn)，積極增產(chǎn)的美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)企業(yè)能夠承受低于很多人預(yù)期的油價水平，這似乎制約了油價上漲。從石油市場的角度來看，沙特計劃放慢改革速度的消息，加大了通過維持當(dāng)前的石油輸出國組織(Opec，簡稱：歐佩克)/非歐佩克國家供應(yīng)協(xié)議來增加收入的壓力。這還增強(qiáng)了沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)在2018年成功完成首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)的重要性，此舉是該國經(jīng)濟(jì)改革計劃的關(guān)鍵一環(huán)，旨在為一只公共投資基金籌集1000億美元。

Saudi Arabia matters immensely, both as a swing supplier of oil and for stability and security in the region. A serious effort to reduce its dependence on oil revenue, open up to foreign investment and liberalise its society should be supported and encouraged. Yet the challenges remain immense, especially as the shale era depresses oil prices and efforts to close the resulting fiscal deficits slow the economy.

沙特阿拉伯極為重要，它既是一個舉足輕重的石油供應(yīng)者，還對地區(qū)的穩(wěn)定與安全至關(guān)重要。降低對石油收入的依賴、向外資開放以及允許該國社會自由化的認(rèn)真努力，應(yīng)該得到支持和鼓勵。然而，挑戰(zhàn)仍然巨大，尤其是考慮到頁巖時代抑制油價，而彌補(bǔ)由此導(dǎo)致的財政赤字的努力將減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)。

The writer is a former special assistant to President Barack Obama and director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University

本文作者曾擔(dān)任巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)的特別助理，現(xiàn)任哥倫比亞大學(xué)(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)主任