IMF：當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)掩蓋較長(zhǎng)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

The International Monetary Fund has warned that good times in the global economy mask longer-term risks, including a $135tn debt pile in G20 nations that companies and consumers are already finding difficult to service.

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告稱(chēng)，當(dāng)今全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的美好光景掩蓋了更長(zhǎng)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，包括20國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)國(guó)家積累的135萬(wàn)億美元巨額債務(wù)。公司和消費(fèi)者已發(fā)現(xiàn)很難支付這筆債務(wù)的利息。

A day after upgrading its global growth forecasts for this year and next the IMF warned on Wednesday that benign economic conditions were fuelling an appetite for risk that, together with central banks’ response to the 2008 global crisis, appeared to be laying the ground for a new financial crunch.

就在上調(diào)今明兩年的全球增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)值一天之后，IMF周三警告稱(chēng)，良性的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況正在提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好，這一點(diǎn)加上各國(guó)央行應(yīng)對(duì)2008年全球危機(jī)的措施，似乎正為一場(chǎng)新的金融危機(jī)奠定基礎(chǔ)。

“While the waters seem calm, vulnerabilities are building under the surface [and] if left unattended, these could derail the global recovery,” said Tobias Adrian, of the IMF’s financial stability watchdog.

“盡管水面看似風(fēng)平浪靜，但水面以下的脆弱性正在增加，如果不加應(yīng)對(duì)，這些脆弱性可能破壞全球復(fù)蘇，”IMF金融穩(wěn)定監(jiān)督部門(mén)的托比亞斯•阿德里亞(Tobias Adrian)說(shuō)。

The good times were breeding “complacency”, he said, that was “spawning financial excesses”.

美好時(shí)光正在助長(zhǎng)“自滿”，他說(shuō)，這開(kāi)始“催生金融過(guò)度行為”。

If these continued to build, the IMF said in its latest Global Financial Stability Report, they could lead to a crisis that, were equity prices to tumble 15 per cent and home prices to fall 9 per cent, would cut 1.7 per cent off global output.

IMF在其最新的《全球金融穩(wěn)定報(bào)告》(Global Financial Stability Report)中表示，如果這些狀況繼續(xù)發(fā)展，可能會(huì)引發(fā)一場(chǎng)危機(jī)：假設(shè)股價(jià)大跌15%，房產(chǎn)價(jià)格下降9%，將使全球產(chǎn)出減少1.7%。

Such a crisis would be “broad-based and significant”, though it would be only a third as severe as the 2008 global crisis, the IMF said. The US, where the Fed has ended quantitative easing and is further along the path to normalising monetary policy, would probably be hit less hard than Europe and emerging markets, which would see $100bn in capital outflows.

IMF表示，這樣一場(chǎng)危機(jī)將是“涉及面廣和重大的”，盡管其嚴(yán)重程度將僅為2008年全球危機(jī)的三分之一。在美國(guó)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)已終止了量化寬松，并且在貨幣政策正常化的道路上走在前面，因此美國(guó)受到的沖擊將小于歐洲和新興市場(chǎng)，后兩者將遭遇1000億美元的資本外流。

The IMF found cause to worry in the growing non-financial sector debt in G20 economies, which last year reached $135tn, or about 235 per cent of aggregate annual economic output.

IMF發(fā)現(xiàn)，G20經(jīng)濟(jì)體中不斷增加的非金融行業(yè)債務(wù)是令人擔(dān)憂的。去年這一債務(wù)達(dá)到135萬(wàn)億美元，大約相當(dāng)于這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體年度經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出總和的235%。

The US and China each accounted for about a third of the $80tn increase in debt since 2006, the IMF said.

IMF表示，美國(guó)和中國(guó)分別占到了自2006年以來(lái)80萬(wàn)億美元新增債務(wù)的三分之一。

The low interest rates that helped fuel the increase in leverage since the financial crisis had broadly made that debt relatively affordable to repay.

自金融危機(jī)以來(lái)幫助加大杠桿的低利率，總體上使債務(wù)相對(duì)容易償還。

But in most G20 countries, companies and households had loaded up on so much debt that the debt service ratios — a measure of affordability — had increased, pointing to greater financial stress. Among the G20 countries where that issue is most acute are Australia, Canada and China, the IMF said.

但在多數(shù)G20國(guó)家，公司和家庭已積累了如此高的債務(wù)，以至于償債率(debt service ratio)——衡量承受能力的指標(biāo)——有所升高，指向了更大的金融壓力。IMF表示，這個(gè)問(wèn)題最突出的G20國(guó)家是澳大利亞、加拿大和中國(guó)。