個人電腦市場2018年將恢復(fù)增長

The PC is set to stage a comeback in 2018, after the rise of smartphones sent sales of desktop and laptop computers into decline in recent years.

個人電腦(PC)市場有望在2018年出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，此前幾年智能手機的興起使臺式和筆記本電腦銷量下滑。

The latest industry prediction suggests a return to growth for PCs next year, as businesses upgrade their computers, while markets including China and Russia rebound.

根據(jù)最新的行業(yè)預(yù)測，隨著企業(yè)升級電腦，同時中國和俄羅斯等市場反彈，明年P(guān)C銷售將恢復(fù)增長。

Gartner, the research company, predicts the global devices market will grow by 2 per cent in 2018 to 2.35bn units. That would represent the fastest rate of growth since 2015.

研究公司高德納(Gartner)預(yù)計，2018年全球設(shè)備市場將增長2%，至23.5億部。這將是自2015年以來最快的增速。

Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, said the “misconception persists” that the world has gone completely mobile and relies on smartphones, when many people still use desktop computers, laptops and tablets for specific tasks including reading, watching videos and writing long emails.

高德納研究總監(jiān)蘭吉特•阿特瓦爾(Ranjit Atwal)表示，有關(guān)世界已經(jīng)完全轉(zhuǎn)向移動設(shè)備、依賴于智能手機的“認識誤區(qū)仍然存在”，實際上許多人仍然使用臺式電腦、筆記本電腦和平板電腦完成特定任務(wù)，包括閱讀、觀看視頻和寫較長的電子郵件。

He said users holding on to older PCs for a longer period remains an issue for the market and that traditional PC shipments will probably shrink 4.4 per cent in 2018. That decline is more rapid than the 3.6 per cent drop that was recorded in the third quarter of this year as component shortages led to price rises that weighed on shipment growth.

他表示，用戶在較長時期內(nèi)繼續(xù)使用較舊的電腦，仍是市場面對的一個問題，2018年傳統(tǒng)PC出貨量很可能會下降4.4%。這一降速將快于今年第三季度3.6%的降幅，今年第三季度，由于組件短缺導致價格上漲，拖累了出貨量增長。

Yet businesses have started buying computers again, as more companies upgrade to Windows 10-based computers, according to Gartner. It predicts the overall market for PCs, including ultramobile laptop models, will rise 0.8 per cent in 2018 after a stable 2017.

然而，據(jù)高德納介紹，隨著越來越多的公司升級至搭載Windows 10系統(tǒng)的電腦，企業(yè)已經(jīng)再度開始購買電腦。該公司預(yù)計，包括超便攜式筆記本電腦在內(nèi)，整體PC市場在2017年將保持穩(wěn)定，在2018年將增長0.8%。

Mr Atwal said the PC market in Russia is expected to grow 5 per cent this year, with expansion continuing into 2018. Growth in that market will be driven by desktop computers, which are more aggressively priced than mobile computers and hybrid devices.

阿特瓦爾表示，預(yù)計俄羅斯PC市場今年將增長5%，而此輪擴張將持續(xù)至2018年。俄羅斯PC市場的增長將由臺式電腦驅(qū)動，這類電腦在定價上比移動電腦和混合設(shè)備更加強勢。

Another growth driver will be China, where sales of PCs have been slow in 2017 because of security and privacy concerns related to Windows 10. With Microsoft now working with a Chinese government agency on an approved version of the software, Gartner expects a positive affect in 2018 as sales of ultramobile computers ramp up.

另一個增長驅(qū)動力將是中國，由于與Windows 10相關(guān)的安全和隱私擔憂，2017年中國PC銷售一直疲軟。考慮到微軟(Microsoft)正在與中國的一個政府機構(gòu)合作，致力于推出這種操作系統(tǒng)的一個批準版本，高德納預(yù)計這將對2018年的銷售產(chǎn)生積極影響，尤其是超便攜式電腦的銷售將會增長。

The total PC market is expected to drop to 263m units this year from 270m in 2016, but is forecast to top 265m in 2018. That compares to 352m in 2011.

預(yù)計今年整體PC市場的出貨量將從2016年的2.70億臺降至2.63億臺，但預(yù)計將在2018年回升至2.65億臺。相比之下，2011年出貨量為3.52億臺。

The research company also expects phone sales to grow in 2018, with shipments expected to rise 2.4 per cent and smartphone sales seen rising 6 per cent to 1.6bn — about 86 per cent of overall mobile phone shipments. The iPhone X is seen as a sales driver in North America, China and Western Europe. With the phone not available until November, the impact of sales will not be felt until 2018.

這家研究公司還預(yù)計，2018年手機銷量將增長，出貨量預(yù)計將上升2.4%，而智能手機銷量增長6%，至16億部，約占手機總出貨量的86%。 iPhone X被認為將是北美、中國和西歐市場的一個銷售驅(qū)動因素。鑒于這款手機要到11月才上市銷售，其對銷售產(chǎn)生的影響要到2018年才能看到。

That could follow a weak fourth quarter of 2017 when component shortages could limit supply of new phones, particularly at the lower end of the market.

在那之前，2017年第四季度的銷售可能會比較疲弱，因為組件短缺可能限制新手機的供應(yīng)，特別是在低端市場。