德國(guó)政局動(dòng)蕩震動(dòng)歐洲

When Angela Merkel hosted the G20 summit in Hamburg last July, she was the most experienced western leader in the room. The German chancellor took office in 2005 — when Emmanuel Macron was just a year out of college, and Donald Trump was still a reality TV star and real estate guy.

去年7月，當(dāng)安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在漢堡主持20國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)峰會(huì)時(shí)，她是場(chǎng)上最有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的西方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。這位德國(guó)總理于2005年就職——當(dāng)時(shí)埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)剛大學(xué)畢業(yè)1年，而唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)還只是一個(gè)真人秀明星和地產(chǎn)商。

The only G20 leader who has been in office longer than Ms Merkel is Vladimir Putin of Russia, and the two leaders’ records make an instructive contrast. Under President Putin, Russia has lost friends, was sucked into wars and been hit with economic sanctions. But, in the Merkel era, Germany has grown steadily in prosperity and political influence. On a range of crucial issues — Russia, refugees, the euro — Germany has become Europe’s “indispensable nation”, with decisions taken in the chancellery in Berlin critical to how events unfold.

G20領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人中唯一比默克爾在位更久的是俄羅斯的弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)，對(duì)比這兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的所作所為能帶來(lái)很多啟發(fā)。在普京的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，俄羅斯失去了朋友、卷入了戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)并受到經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁。但是，在默克爾執(zhí)政時(shí)期，德國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮度和政治影響力卻一直在穩(wěn)定提升。在一系列關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題上——俄羅斯、難民、歐元——德國(guó)已經(jīng)成為歐洲“不可或缺的國(guó)家”，柏林總理府做出的決策對(duì)事態(tài)如何發(fā)展發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。

So the current political crisis in Germany has global implications. If, as now seems distinctly possible, the end of the Merkel era is within sight, Europe will be in a new and dangerous situation.

因此，當(dāng)前德國(guó)的政治危機(jī)對(duì)全球都有影響。如果默克爾離任在即(這種可能性現(xiàn)在看上去明顯存在)，歐洲將面臨一個(gè)新的危險(xiǎn)局面。

The EU-optimists in Brussels and Paris will hope that a new German leader might inject some dynamism into the European project, ditching the cautious, incremental approach that Ms Merkel has displayed over the euro.

布魯塞爾和巴黎對(duì)歐盟(EU)事業(yè)感到樂(lè)觀(guān)的人士眼下肯定希望，新一任德國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能為這項(xiàng)事業(yè)注入一些活力，拋棄默克爾在歐元區(qū)問(wèn)題上謹(jǐn)慎、漸進(jìn)的做法。

But, in fact, the opposite is more likely to happen. The current tenor of German politics suggests that a new chancellor in Berlin is far less likely than Ms Merkel to take bold risks for Europe. The spoilers in the current coalition negotiations are the Free Democrats, who are strongly opposed to visionary ideas for deeper European fiscal integration.

但事實(shí)上很可能事與愿違。當(dāng)前德國(guó)政治的基調(diào)表明，如果柏林有了一位新總理，此人將比默克爾更不可能為歐洲一體化事業(yè)采取大膽、冒險(xiǎn)的舉措。目前破壞聯(lián)合組閣談判的是自由民主黨人，他們強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)加深歐洲財(cái)政一體化的設(shè)想。

For that reason, the collapse of the coalition talks in Berlin is bad news for Mr Macron. In a recent speech on Europe at the Sorbonne, the French president laid out a series of ambitious ideas for the EU, including the creation of a European finance ministry, EU-wide taxes and a joint military force for overseas interventions. Yet for these ideas to have any chance of adoption, France needs a positive response from Germany. The failure to form a new German government means the response will now be indefinitely delayed, and will be more likely to be negative when it finally comes.

因此，對(duì)馬克龍來(lái)說(shuō)，柏林聯(lián)合組閣談判破裂是個(gè)壞消息。最近，這位法國(guó)總統(tǒng)在索邦大學(xué)(Sorbonne)發(fā)表演說(shuō)，闡述了一系列關(guān)于歐盟事業(yè)雄心勃勃的想法，包括建立歐洲財(cái)政部、全歐盟統(tǒng)一的稅制以及負(fù)責(zé)海外干預(yù)行動(dòng)的聯(lián)合軍隊(duì)。然而，想讓這些想法有機(jī)會(huì)落實(shí)，法國(guó)需要得到德國(guó)的積極回應(yīng)。未能組建新一屆德國(guó)政府意味著目前來(lái)自德國(guó)的回應(yīng)會(huì)無(wú)限期延遲，而最終迎來(lái)的回應(yīng)也很可能是消極的。

Some conservatives hope that a post-Merkel Germany could be better for European unity when it comes to the sensitive issue of dealing with refugees. The chancellor was bitterly criticised in Hungary and Poland for unilaterally deciding to accept more than 1m would-be refugees from Syria and elsewhere, and then seeking a burden-sharing agreement with the rest of the EU.

一些保守派人士希望，在默克爾下臺(tái)后，當(dāng)涉及到難民的處理等敏感問(wèn)題時(shí)，德國(guó)的立場(chǎng)能夠更有利于歐洲一體化事業(yè)。默克爾曾在匈牙利和波蘭飽受批評(píng)，因?yàn)樗龁畏矫鏇Q定接受來(lái)自敘利亞和其他地方的逾100萬(wàn)潛在難民，然后尋求歐盟其他成員國(guó)與其分擔(dān)責(zé)任。

The current coalition talks have already demonstrated that Germany is moving towards a much more restrictive view of refugee rights — including setting an overall limit to the number of asylum-seekers the country will accept each year. But even if the next German government is closer to the EU mainstream on migration, that is unlikely to lead to EU unity.

目前的聯(lián)合組閣談判已經(jīng)表明，德國(guó)的立場(chǎng)正急劇轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)﹄y民權(quán)利施加限制——包括限制該國(guó)每年接收的尋求庇護(hù)者的總數(shù)。但即使下一屆德國(guó)政府更貼近歐盟在移民問(wèn)題上的主流立場(chǎng)，也不太可能帶來(lái)歐洲的統(tǒng)一。

There are still many potential migrants who might attempt the journey to Europe. With a disproportionate number arriving in southern European countries such as Greece and Italy, there is a clear need for some sort of EU-wide response. If even Germany retreats into a nationalistic crouch, attempts to find a workable EU approach would collapse, and migration policy would become even more chaotic and divisive.

現(xiàn)在依然有很多潛在移民試圖前往歐洲。由于抵達(dá)希臘和意大利等南歐國(guó)家的潛在移民數(shù)量不成比例地高，整個(gè)歐盟做出某種統(tǒng)一的反應(yīng)顯然是必要的。如果連德國(guó)都退回民族主義姿態(tài)，找到可行的歐盟統(tǒng)一移民對(duì)策的嘗試將會(huì)失敗，移民政策將變得更加混亂和分裂。

Ms Merkel’s response to the refugee crisis helped to turn her into a global symbol. During the US election, Mr Trump lambasted the German chancellor’s policies as “insane”, and regularly predicted a surge in terrorism across Europe. More broadly, after Brexit, the election of Mr Trump and the rise of quasi-authoritarian governments in Poland and Hungary, Ms Merkel was widely hailed as the most powerful defender of an international liberal order that was suddenly under unprecedented pressure.

默克爾對(duì)移民危機(jī)的反應(yīng)幫助她成為了全球旗幟。在美國(guó)大選期間，特朗普抨擊德國(guó)總理的政策“瘋了”，并時(shí)常預(yù)測(cè)歐洲境內(nèi)的恐怖主義活動(dòng)將會(huì)激增。從更廣的層面說(shuō)，在英國(guó)退歐、特朗普當(dāng)選，波蘭和匈牙利的半威權(quán)政府崛起之后，默克爾被廣泛譽(yù)為自由主義國(guó)際秩序最有力的捍衛(wèi)者，這一秩序眼下正面臨突如其來(lái)、空前巨大的壓力。

No currently conceivable replacement for Ms Merkel is likely to embrace the populist agenda of Mr Trump, or the Euroscepticism of the Brexiters. But it is clear that a large part of the German chancellor’s current difficulties stem from the rise of the far-right and the far-left in Germany, who collectively achieved more than 20 per cent of the vote in September’s election. If the chancellor now loses office — or staggers on, in a hobbled state — her fate will be perceived across the world as a big setback for the liberal and internationalist ideas that she has championed.

目前，我們能夠想到的可能替代默克爾的人選，都不太可能歡迎特朗普的民粹主義議程，或者英國(guó)退歐派人士的歐洲懷疑主義。但默克爾現(xiàn)在面臨的困境顯然有很大一部分源于德國(guó)極右和極左勢(shì)力的崛起，代表這些勢(shì)力的黨派在今年9月的德國(guó)大選中總共獲得超過(guò)20%的選票。如果默克爾下臺(tái)——或者以“跛腳鴨”狀態(tài)繼續(xù)留任——她的命運(yùn)將在全世界范圍內(nèi)被視為她所支持的自由主義和國(guó)際主義思想的巨大挫折。

The fact that Ms Merkel will end the year fighting for her political life will damp some of the optimism that has been building steadily among EU elites in the past year. The twin blows of Trump and Brexit meant that the EU began 2017 in a state of shock and fear. But Mr Macron’s victory, a modest revival of economic growth and the shambles of the Brexit process had restored the confidence of professional pro-Europeans.

默克爾將在為自己的政治生命而奮戰(zhàn)中結(jié)束這一年，這個(gè)事實(shí)將為歐盟精英在過(guò)去一年來(lái)穩(wěn)步滋生的樂(lè)觀(guān)情緒潑一盆冷水。特朗普和英國(guó)退歐的雙重打擊讓歐盟在震驚和恐懼之中踏入了2017年。但馬克龍的勝選、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的溫和復(fù)蘇以及英國(guó)退歐過(guò)程的一團(tuán)糟局面，恢復(fù)了歐洲一體化事業(yè)的職業(yè)捍衛(wèi)者們的信心。

Set against these positive trends, however, there have also been warning signs. These include separatism in Spain, populism in central Europe and continuing worries about the Italian banks. Amid all these problems, Ms Merkel’s Germany was the rock of political and economic stability on which the EU hoped to build. If even Germany no longer looks solid and predictable, the whole of the European project will be back in trouble.

然而，在這些積極的趨勢(shì)下，還有一些值得警惕的信號(hào)。包括西班牙的分裂主義、中歐的民粹主義和意大利銀行業(yè)持續(xù)引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。在問(wèn)題重重的大環(huán)境下，默克爾領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的德國(guó)在政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)上都堅(jiān)如磐石，歐盟希望以它為基礎(chǔ)構(gòu)建自己的事業(yè)。如果連德國(guó)看起來(lái)都不再堅(jiān)定和可預(yù)測(cè)，整個(gè)歐洲一體化事業(yè)將重新陷入困境。