2018年中國(guó)鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速將大幅放緩

China’s steel production growth is expected to slow sharply in 2018 as state-mandated factory closures and policies to protect the environment begin to bite.

預(yù)計(jì)2018年中國(guó)鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速將會(huì)大幅放緩，原因是政府強(qiáng)制關(guān)閉工廠和環(huán)保政策開(kāi)始產(chǎn)生影響。

The world’s largest producer of the metal will experience just a small rise in output of 0.6 per cent this year, a poll of 15 analysts found in a Financial Times survey.

英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》對(duì)15名分析師進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，作為世界最大的鋼鐵生產(chǎn)國(guó)，中國(guó)今年的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量將僅小幅上升0.6%。

Steel is often viewed as a barometer of economic activity because it is used in carmaking, construction and manufacturing, which means a significant price move could have repercussions for the broader economy.

鋼鐵常被視為經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的晴雨表，因?yàn)殇撹F被用于汽車制造、建筑和制造業(yè)，這意味著鋼鐵的重大價(jià)格變動(dòng)可能會(huì)對(duì)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響。

For the steelmakers, the Chinese slowdown could have positive effects.

對(duì)于鋼鐵制造商來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)鋼鐵生產(chǎn)放緩可能帶來(lái)積極的影響。

A modest increase in production from China, which accounts for about half the 1.7bn tonnes churned out worldwide, could restore balance to a global market that was ravaged by a collapse in prices two years ago due to oversupply.

中國(guó)占全球17億噸的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量的一半左右，中國(guó)鋼鐵產(chǎn)量?jī)H小幅上升有利于全球市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)平衡。兩年前，供應(yīng)過(guò)剩導(dǎo)致的價(jià)格暴跌重創(chuàng)了國(guó)際鋼鐵市場(chǎng)。

The anticipated slowdown comes despite a robust outlook for the Chinese economy and contrasts with a 5.7 per cent jump in its crude steel output during the first 11 months of 2017, according to World Steel Association figures.

雖然中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景被看好，分析師依然做出了上述的放緩預(yù)測(cè)。與此形成對(duì)比的是，世界鋼鐵協(xié)會(huì)(World Steel Association)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年頭11個(gè)月中國(guó)粗鋼產(chǎn)量大幅上升5.7%。

Even so, global annual production in 2018 is slated to increase 2.1 per cent, according to an average of the analysts’ forecasts.

根據(jù)分析師預(yù)測(cè)的平均值，預(yù)計(jì)2018年全球鋼鐵產(chǎn)量將增長(zhǎng)2.1%。

World output increased 5.4 per cent between January and November 2017, compared with the same period a year before.

2017年1月至11月期間，世界鋼鐵產(chǎn)量同比增長(zhǎng)5.4%。

Rod Beddows of HCF International Advisors said: “The total market appears to be reverting to a more stable ‘normal’ with Chinese exports under control.”

HCF International Advisors的羅德•貝多斯(Rod Beddows)說(shuō)：“總體市場(chǎng)似乎正恢復(fù)到更穩(wěn)定的‘常態(tài)’，中國(guó)的出口受到控制。”

Donald Trump’s pledge to renew US infrastructure, coupled with the impact of import restrictions against steel deemed unfairly traded, were cited as factors behind the average forecast of a 3.4 per cent jump in the country’s steel production in 2018.

對(duì)2018年美國(guó)鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速的平均預(yù)測(cè)值為3.4%，原因包括唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)關(guān)于更新美國(guó)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的承諾，以及美國(guó)政府對(duì)其認(rèn)為存在不公平貿(mào)易的鋼鐵的進(jìn)口限制。

Alistair Ramsay of the publication Metal Bulletin said that US producers had been winning customers back from external suppliers, partly due to a weak dollar.

英國(guó)《金屬導(dǎo)報(bào)》(Metal Bulletin)的阿利斯泰爾•拉姆齊(Alistair Ramsay)表示，美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商不斷從外國(guó)供應(yīng)商那里搶回客戶，美元疲軟是部分原因。