美國(guó)國(guó)債拋售加劇

The US bond market has suffered a fierce sell-off as investors fret that central banks will move more aggressively than anticipated to end their crisis-era economic stimulus programmes, with some high-profile debt investors declaring a new era for fixed income.

美國(guó)債券市場(chǎng)遭遇一輪激烈拋售，投資者擔(dān)心各大央行將比預(yù)期更激進(jìn)地終結(jié)危機(jī)時(shí)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃，一些知名的債務(wù)投資者宣告固定收益產(chǎn)品進(jìn)入一個(gè)新時(shí)代。

The yield of 10-year Treasuries on Wednesday approached levels not seen since the “Trumpflation” retreat nearly a year ago, hitting a nine-month high of nearly 2.6 per cent on expectations cash freed up by the recent US tax cut will finally help spark higher inflation driven by stonger economic growth.

10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益率周三逼近自近一年前“特朗普通脹”(Trumpflation)消退以來(lái)未見(jiàn)的水平，達(dá)到近2.6%的9個(gè)月高點(diǎn)，原因是市場(chǎng)預(yù)期近期美國(guó)減稅所釋放的資金，加上更強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，將終于幫助推高通脹。

An eagerly anticipated auction of 10-year US Treasuries later produced the highest ratio of demand since 2016, underscoring how higher yields can entice investors back into the nond market. That helped trim the yield rise to 2.57 per cent by early afternoon.

市場(chǎng)殷切期待的一場(chǎng)10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債拍賣(mài)，后來(lái)產(chǎn)生了自2016年以來(lái)最高的需求比例，突顯高收益率如何能吸引投資者重返債券市場(chǎng)。這幫助收益率在午后收窄升幅，至2.57%。

The global government bond market has started 2018 on the back foot, and yields rose sharply on Tuesday after data showed the Bank of Japan slowed some of its long-dated bond purchases. That stoked speculation that the Bank of Japan would join the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve in scaling back stimulus programmes this year.

全球政府債券市場(chǎng)在2018年開(kāi)局不利，周二收益率大幅上升，因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)顯示，日本央行(Bank of Japan)放緩了一部分長(zhǎng)期債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)操作。這引發(fā)人們猜測(cè)日本央行今年將加入歐洲央行(ECB)和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的行列，開(kāi)始縮減刺激計(jì)劃。

The sell-off deepened on Wednesday amid market speculation that Chinese authorities viewed US government bonds as less attractive. The sense that the three-decade bond bull market was coming to a close was reinforced by Bill Gross, the so-called bond king, who publicly declared he had shorted US Treasuries.

周三拋售加劇，其背景是市場(chǎng)揣測(cè)中國(guó)當(dāng)局認(rèn)為美國(guó)政府債券吸引力下降。有“債券之王”之稱(chēng)的比爾•格羅斯(Bill Gross)強(qiáng)化了持續(xù)30年的債券牛市即將結(jié)束的感覺(jué)，他公開(kāi)宣告已開(kāi)始賣(mài)空美國(guó)國(guó)債。

Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital who is viewed as Mr Gross’s rival and is a closely followed bond investor, lent his weight to the bearish sentiment, saying central bank policy was shifting to an “era of quantitative tightening”.

Doubleline Capital創(chuàng)始人杰弗里•岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)是另一位受到緊密追隨的債券投資者，被視為格羅斯的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。他表態(tài)贊同看空情緒，稱(chēng)央行政策正在轉(zhuǎn)向“量化收緊時(shí)代”。

While the Japanese central bank’s trimming of long-dated bond purchases was not announced as an official change of policy, it was enough to reinforce the sense 2018 will become a turning point in the post-crisis era of ultra-stimulative monetary policy.

盡管日本央行縮減長(zhǎng)期債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)并未被宣布為正式的政策轉(zhuǎn)變，但此舉足以強(qiáng)化市場(chǎng)的感覺(jué)，即2018年將成為后危機(jī)時(shí)期超級(jí)刺激性貨幣政策的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。

The yield on 10-year German Bunds has climbed to a six-month high of 0.54 per cent; January marks the start of the ECB’s halving of its bond purchases to €30bn every month. Even the Japanese 10-year government bond yield — which is still subject to the central bank’s “yield curve control” that aims to keep it at zero — has risen to 0.08 per cent this week, the highest since July.

德國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率攀升至0.54%的6個(gè)月新高;1月標(biāo)志著歐洲央行開(kāi)始將債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)量減半，至每月300億歐元。就連日本10年期國(guó)債收益率——仍受制于央行“收益率曲線控制”，目標(biāo)是將其維持在零——本周也升至0.08%，為去年7月以來(lái)的最高水平。

As a result of the sell-off, the biggest fixed-income exchange traded fund, the $53bn iShares fund trading under the symbol AGG, has lost 0.5 per cent this week to trade at an eight-month low on Wednesday.

此輪拋售的結(jié)果是，最大的固定收益交易所交易基金(ETF)、代碼為AGG的530億美元iShares基金本周縮水0.5%，周三跌至8個(gè)月低點(diǎn)。

Even before the Donald Trump-backed tax cut, the world’s most important central banks had been slowly bringing an end to the emergency stimulus measures as the economic recovery in Europe and the US gained steam.

即使在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)支持的減稅出臺(tái)之前，隨著歐洲和美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇形成勢(shì)頭，世界各大央行已經(jīng)在慢慢結(jié)束緊急時(shí)期的刺激措施。

Economists have remained bemused by the lack of price and wage increases despite the tightening job market on both sides of the Atlantic, but many now believe the US tax cut will provide the boost needed to trigger inflation — which could force central banks to tighten monetary policy even more aggressively.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們迄今感到困惑的一點(diǎn)是，盡管大西洋兩岸的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)均不斷收緊，但價(jià)格和工資缺乏上漲勢(shì)頭，但很多人現(xiàn)在相信，美國(guó)的減稅政策將提供觸發(fā)通脹所需的推動(dòng)——這可能迫使各大央行以更大力度收緊貨幣政策。

The 10-year US “break-even” rate — a measure of inflation expectations derived by comparing the yields of inflation-proofed and conventional Treasury bonds — has this month climbed above the 2 per cent mark for the first time since March last year.

美國(guó)10年期盈虧平衡通脹率(衡量通脹預(yù)期的指標(biāo)，通過(guò)比較通脹保值國(guó)債和傳統(tǒng)國(guó)債的收益率得出)本月自去年3月以來(lái)首次攀升至2%以上。

Not all investors are convinced that inflation is finally at hand. Oliver Jones of Capital Economics noted that factors such as a global savings glut and new technologies that allow companies to keep prices low would keep inflation in check.

并非所有投資者都相信通脹終于即將到來(lái)。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的奧利弗•瓊斯(Oliver Jones)指出，種種因素(比如全球儲(chǔ)蓄過(guò)剩和讓企業(yè)得以保持低價(jià)的新技術(shù))將把通脹保持在低位。

“We think that investors are underestimating how quickly the Fed will raise interest rates this year. But we doubt that this would mark the start of a bloodbath in bond markets, even allowing for reduced support from central bankers and reserve managers outside the US,” Mr Jones said.

“我們認(rèn)為投資者低估了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年加息的速度會(huì)有多快。但我們不認(rèn)為這標(biāo)志著債券市場(chǎng)會(huì)遭遇一場(chǎng)血洗，即使考慮到美國(guó)以外的央行和儲(chǔ)備管理者縮減刺激計(jì)劃之后也是如此，”瓊斯表示。

Mr Gross, who earned the “bond king” nickname while chief investment officer at Pimco and is now a fund manager at Janus Henderson, wrote on Twitter: “Bond bear market confirmed today. 25-year long-term trend lines broken in 5yr and 10yr maturity Treasuries.”

在擔(dān)任太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)首席投資官期間贏得“債券之王”大名的格羅斯，如今是Janus Henderson的一名基金經(jīng)理。他在Twitter上寫(xiě)道：“債券市場(chǎng)今天確認(rèn)了。5年和10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債的25年長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)線已被打破。”

Mr Gundlach warned that it would be a “big deal” if yields on the 10-year Treasury broke through 2.63 per cent — something that would breach a technical level and accelerate the sell-off, he predicted.

岡拉克警告稱(chēng)，如果10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率突破2.63%，那將是一件“大事”。他預(yù)測(cè)，那將突破一條技術(shù)阻力線，加快此輪拋售。