2018年各行業(yè)職場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)

Leadership 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層

In 2018, more business leaders will channel a potent combination of digitalisation, generational change and growing diversity, to streamline their hierarchies, distribute responsibility, and transform their organisations.

2018年，將會(huì)有更多商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖利用數(shù)字化、代際變動(dòng)和多元化不斷提高的強(qiáng)大結(jié)合，來精簡(jiǎn)企業(yè)層級(jí)結(jié)構(gòu)，分配責(zé)任，轉(zhuǎn)變他們所在的組織。

Leaders of large companies such as Michelin, Microsoft, Ericsson and others are already pushing more decision-making power out to their front-line workers. Others will follow as the success of this approach catches on.

米其林(Michelin)、微軟(Microsoft)、愛立信(Ericsson)等大企業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已經(jīng)把更多的決策權(quán)推向一線員工。隨著這種方法的成功引起注意，其他企業(yè)將效仿。

Aspiring young leaders already place more emphasis on using their influence, rather than trying to exert power through the embedded authority of their position or their assigned title. Many are already gaining leadership experience, not through promotion at established institutions but by running bottom-up movements and voluntary groups, or by shaping their own start-ups.

有抱負(fù)的年輕領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已經(jīng)更注重利用自己的影響力，而不是試圖憑借其職位或頭銜所帶來的權(quán)威來發(fā)號(hào)施令。很多人已經(jīng)擁有了領(lǐng)導(dǎo)經(jīng)驗(yàn)——不是通過在老牌機(jī)構(gòu)中的晉升，而是通過領(lǐng)導(dǎo)自下而上的運(yùn)動(dòng)和志愿組織、或是打造自己的初創(chuàng)公司。

I expect more companies to develop leaders who know how to manage networks — not just the traditional internal network of employees, but more loosely connected webs of suppliers and contractors, managed remotely via the internet and social media.

我預(yù)計(jì)，將有更多公司培養(yǎng)懂得如何管理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人——不只是傳統(tǒng)的內(nèi)部員工網(wǎng)，還包括聯(lián)系更松散的供應(yīng)商和承包商網(wǎng)絡(luò)，通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和社交媒體進(jìn)行遠(yuǎn)程管理。

That will require different skills — notably a clearer vision among leaders of their organisation’s shared purpose. The dilemma of how to lead “teams” of robots and humans will become even more pressing this year.

這需要領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人具備不同的技能——尤其需要領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對(duì)組織的共同目標(biāo)具有更清晰的視野。在新的一年，如何領(lǐng)導(dǎo)由機(jī)器人和人類組成的“團(tuán)隊(duì)”的困境將變得更為緊迫。

I do not see much evidence that radical “managerless” models such as “Holacracy” will catch on. But more companies will realise that if they constantly test innovative ways forward — as start-ups do — they will be more flexible and decisive than old-style bureaucracies and meritocracies.

我沒有看到太多跡象表明，“合弄制”(Holacracy)等激進(jìn)的“無管理者”模式將會(huì)普及。但會(huì)有越來越多的公司意識(shí)到，如果他們不斷地嘗試創(chuàng)新——就像初創(chuàng)公司那樣——他們將比老派的官僚制度和精英管理制度更加靈活和果斷。

When it comes to diversity, I am optimistic that at some point the rise of enlightened younger executives will trigger a sudden change of attitude in the boardroom. This will not happen in 2018, though the imbalances and abuses of power evident in sexual harassment scandals, from tech to media, could accelerate change.

至于多元化，我樂觀地認(rèn)為，在某個(gè)時(shí)候，開明的年輕高管崛起將引發(fā)董事會(huì)突然轉(zhuǎn)變態(tài)度。這種情況不會(huì)出現(xiàn)在2018年，盡管從科技到媒體行業(yè)的性騷擾丑聞所暴露的失衡和權(quán)力濫用問題，可能會(huì)加速這種變革。

Ultimately I expect these new leaders to start selecting from a broader pool of candidates and appoint direct reports from more varied backgrounds, defying those who use current imbalances to extrapolate gloomily that leadership parity between men and women is still decades off.

說到底，我預(yù)期這些新的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將開始從更廣泛的候選人中選拔人員，并把不同背景的人任命為自己的直接下屬，從而駁斥那些根據(jù)當(dāng)前的失衡來外推還需數(shù)十年才能實(shí)現(xiàn)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層男女平衡的悲觀者。

Of course, these same new forces may also trigger a backlash and a reversion to old command-and-control ways of leading. The politicians who dominate the world stage are, depressingly, mostly cut from the old cloth, and the leadership challenges they face, from Brexit to North Korea, are particularly complex.

當(dāng)然，這些新勢(shì)力也可能引發(fā)反彈，使得指揮-控制的老派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)方式卷土重來。令人郁悶的是，主宰世界舞臺(tái)的政治人物大多是老派的，而他們面臨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力挑戰(zhàn)——從英國(guó)退歐到朝鮮問題——尤為復(fù)雜。

US president Donald Trump’s zero-sum, Art-of-the-Deal approach to negotiation will give comfort to old-fashioned incumbents. I am hoping 2018 will provide an opportunity for positive, problem-solving new leaders to emerge. But change could stall if business chiefs, disheartened by the poor quality of political leadership, turn inwards instead.

美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的零和博弈、“交易藝術(shù)”談判方式，將給那些守舊的現(xiàn)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人帶來安慰。我希望2018年將提供機(jī)會(huì)，讓正氣的、解決問題的新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人涌現(xiàn)出來。但如果企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人因?yàn)檎晤I(lǐng)導(dǎo)層沒水平而灰心，變得因循守舊，那么變革可能陷入停滯。

Andrew Hill is management editor

安德魯•希爾(Andrew Hill)是管理主編

Technology 科技

The Big Tech backlash will spread to technology industry employees in 2018, as many question whether the work they do really is saving the world.

2018年，反對(duì)科技巨擘(Big Tech)的聲音將擴(kuò)散到科技行業(yè)雇員群體，很多人質(zhì)疑他們所做的工作是否真的在拯救世界。

Large technology companies were criticised throughout 2017 for becoming too powerful, using their size to dominate markets and not paying enough attention to how the tools they create can be used for ill.

2017年，人們指責(zé)大型科技公司太過強(qiáng)大、利用自身的規(guī)模主宰市場(chǎng)，而且不夠關(guān)注他們所創(chuàng)造的工具如何被用來做惡。

The worries stretched from the global, such as Russian attempts to influence the US presidential election in 2016, to the local — concerns about users’ mental health and the drain on productivity as they drown in notifications and news feed posts.

人們的擔(dān)憂涵蓋了各個(gè)領(lǐng)域，從全球問題(比如俄羅斯試圖影響2016年美國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉)，到地方問題(比如擔(dān)心用戶淹沒在通知和新聞推送中，造成心理健康問題和生產(chǎn)率損失)。

Next year, more tech workers will speak out, following former Facebook employees Sean Parker and Chamath Palihapitiya, who have condemned social media’s addictive properties.

繼Facebook前員工肖恩•帕克(Sean Parker)和查馬斯•帕里哈皮蒂亞(Chamath Palihapitiya)——二人譴責(zé)了社交媒體的成癮性——之后，新的一年將有更多的科技行業(yè)工作者發(fā)聲。

Others will look for ways to use tech to help people spend less time online. Tristan Harris, a former Google employee, is building a following for his Time Well Spent movement, tackling what it describes as the “digital attention crisis” by encouraging designers to understand the subtle psychological forces they control. Tim Kendall, formerly of Pinterest and Facebook, is reported by Recode to have plans for a start-up focused on fighting device addictions.

其他人將想方設(shè)法利用技術(shù)來幫助人們減少上網(wǎng)時(shí)間。谷歌(Google)前雇員特里斯坦•哈里斯(Tristan Harris)發(fā)起的“時(shí)光莫虛度”(Time Well Spent)運(yùn)動(dòng)正在吸引人氣，該運(yùn)動(dòng)鼓勵(lì)設(shè)計(jì)者理解他們所控制的微妙的心理力量，以解決其所稱的“數(shù)字注意力危機(jī)”。據(jù)Recode報(bào)道，曾經(jīng)在Pinterest和Facebook工作的蒂姆•肯德爾(Tim Kendall)，計(jì)劃成立一家專注于對(duì)抗設(shè)備上癮的初創(chuàng)公司。

After a year of sexual harassment scandals that started in Silicon Valley and spread to just about every industry, women will try to capitalise on the momentum to push for permanent changes. And attention will focus on the plight of marginalised minorities, with so few black and Latino employees in the tech industry.

在經(jīng)歷了性騷擾丑聞?lì)l頻曝光(從硅谷開始，蔓延至幾乎所有行業(yè))的一年后，女性將試圖利用這一勢(shì)頭來推動(dòng)永久性變革。鑒于科技行業(yè)的黑人和拉丁裔雇員少之又少，人們將關(guān)注被邊緣化的少數(shù)族裔的困境。

Female founders in Silicon Valley will raise more money next year, as sexual harassment scandals have forced investors to rethink their habit of backing ventures founded by mainly young, white men. Some start-ups founded by men pursued by rumours of unsavoury pasts will not get funding, even if they are a good investment proposition.

隨著性騷擾丑聞迫使投資者反思他們支持大多由年輕白人男性所創(chuàng)項(xiàng)目的習(xí)慣，新的一年硅谷的女性創(chuàng)始人將籌集更多資金。被不光彩傳言纏身的一些男性創(chuàng)始人，其初創(chuàng)企業(yè)將無法再拿到融資，即使它們是很好的投資項(xiàng)目。

Inside larger technology companies, female employees will be hoping for signs of change in pay and promotions — but will also be on guard, as a men’s rights backlash brews in some corners of Silicon Valley.

在大型科技公司內(nèi)部，女性雇員將希望看到加薪和升職方面發(fā)生變化的跡象——但是，隨著男性權(quán)利在硅谷某些角落開始醞釀反擊，她們也會(huì)保持警惕。

Hannah Kuchler is San Francisco correspondent

漢娜•庫赫勒(Hannah Kuchler)是駐舊金山記者

Banking 銀行業(yè)

Big banks have more or less given up on trying to retain people with higher pay. Ever since the financial crisis it has been clear that if you want to get seriously rich, you go to Silicon Valley. Ruth Porat laid down a big marker in 2015, swapping an annual $13m or so salary as CFO of Morgan Stanley for a package at Google (now Alphabet) about five times bigger.

大銀行已經(jīng)或多或少地放棄了用高薪留住人才的嘗試。自金融危機(jī)以來，有一件事很清楚：如果你想暴富，就得去硅谷。露絲•波拉特(Ruth Porat)在2015年樹立了一個(gè)標(biāo)桿，她放棄了摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席財(cái)務(wù)官約1300萬美元的年薪，跳槽谷歌(如今的Alphabet)獲得五倍于此的薪酬。

Banks just cannot afford to keep up. At Goldman Sachs, for example, net revenues have dropped about a third since 2009, beaten down by structural shifts in trading and new rules crimping risk-taking. The bank tries to keep its pay ratio stable, so that means smaller total packages for the typical employee.

銀行根本無力趕上這樣的薪酬水平。例如，受交易結(jié)構(gòu)性變化和旨在約束冒險(xiǎn)行為的新規(guī)打擊，自2009年以來高盛(Goldman Sachs)的凈收入減少了約三分之一。該行試圖讓薪酬比保持穩(wěn)定，這意味著發(fā)放給典型員工的總薪酬減少。

No wonder that banks have begun to get creative.

難怪各銀行開始變得有創(chuàng)造力。

According to Oliver Cooke, a financial-services recruiter at Selby Jennings in New York, banks have been stressing what they call “internal mobility”, or redeploying staff from one department to another. If a bank facing sluggish conditions in debt trading, for example, can convert a trader to a risk analyst or a compliance officer, it can keep people interested — and it can save a bundle on severance.

據(jù)紐約Selby Jennings的金融服務(wù)業(yè)獵頭奧利弗•庫克(Oliver Cooke)介紹，各銀行如今注重它們所稱的“內(nèi)部流動(dòng)”，即跨部門調(diào)職。例如，如果一家銀行面臨債券交易低迷的情況，它可以讓交易員轉(zhuǎn)崗成為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析師或合規(guī)官，此舉可以保持員工的興趣——同時(shí)節(jié)省一大筆遣散費(fèi)。

They will get more creative in 2018, including on non-cash benefits. Bank of America, for example, has just introduced a programme allowing employees of the global banking and markets unit to take a sabbatical — on full pay — for up to six weeks in a year. There are conditions: people must have been with the bank for at least a decade, and can request the time once every five years, to a maximum of three. But in a memo circulated this week, seen by the Financial Times, chief operating officer Tom Montag urged eligible employees to consider it.

2018年它們會(huì)拿出更多創(chuàng)造力，包括在非現(xiàn)金效益上的創(chuàng)造力。例如，美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)剛剛引入了一項(xiàng)新計(jì)劃，讓全球銀行業(yè)務(wù)和市場(chǎng)部門的員工休至多6周的長(zhǎng)假。該計(jì)劃是有條件的：?jiǎn)T工必須在該行工作至少10年，每5年可以申請(qǐng)一次長(zhǎng)假，最多享受3次。但根據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》看到的一份內(nèi)部備忘錄，首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官湯姆•蒙塔格(Tom Montag)鼓勵(lì)符合條件的員工考慮該計(jì)劃。

“You can choose to spend the time however you like,” he wrote, suggesting people “go travelling, pursue a philanthropic project, spend quality time with family or simply take time out to recharge and refocus”.

“你們可以選擇自己喜歡的休假方式，”他寫道，并建議人們“旅行、參加慈善項(xiàng)目、與家人共享天倫之樂，或只是利用假期充電和調(diào)整心態(tài)”。

Perhaps it will not catch on in the cut-throat world of Wall Street. Some may see an extended absence as an admission that their jobs are expendable, and that colleagues can survive — and perhaps thrive — without them.

或許這種做法不會(huì)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的華爾街推廣。有人可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的休假相當(dāng)于承認(rèn)他們的工作可有可無，即使沒有他們，同事們也可以生存，或許更能發(fā)揮才華。

But I expect other banks to follow suit. Any effort to keep good people fresh and engaged, without paying them more, should be up for consideration.

但我預(yù)計(jì)其他銀行將效仿此舉。在不漲薪的前提下，任何讓優(yōu)秀員工保持活力和積極性的辦法都值得考慮。

Ben McLannahan is US banking editor

本•麥克蘭納汗(Ben McLannahan)是美國(guó)銀行業(yè)編輯

Law 法律

Technology is hardly a brand new phenomenon in the legal world — many firms now have partnerships with AI and machine-learning businesses, while some have set up their own “incubators” or invested in lawtech start-ups. But the trend has reached critical mass and will accelerate sharply in 2018.

技術(shù)在法律界并不是一個(gè)新現(xiàn)象——許多律所已經(jīng)與人工智能和機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)企業(yè)建立了合作伙伴關(guān)系，有些律所還建立了自己的“孵化器”，或者投資了法律科技初創(chuàng)公司。但這一趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)達(dá)到臨界水平，并將在2018年急劇加速。

Lawyers are inherently cautious but most have realised that technology is crucial to crunching through the vast amount of information they handle. Without it, certain document heavy processes, such as disclosure and compliance, would be nearly impossible.

律師本質(zhì)上是謹(jǐn)慎的，但他們中的大多數(shù)人已經(jīng)認(rèn)識(shí)到，技術(shù)是處理他們需要梳理的大量信息的關(guān)鍵。沒有技術(shù)，披露和合規(guī)等一些需要處理很多文件的工作幾乎不可能完成。

Bolder lawyers will start working with more “sci-fi” programs that claim to predict the outcomes of legal disputes before they have reached court, by analysing similar cases and past rulings, opposition tactics and win/lose statistics, the success rates of certain lawyers before certain judges, and so on.

較為大膽的律師將開始采用更為“科幻”的程序，這些程序宣稱在上法庭前就能預(yù)測(cè)法律糾紛的結(jié)果——通過分析類似案件和過往裁決、反對(duì)方策略和勝訴/敗訴統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)、某些律師在某些法官面前的成功率等等。

Such insights are of particular interest to litigation funders, who back claimants in return for a cut of damages and who try to assess the likely outcomes of disputes before committing their money. But that may have to be 2019’s breakthrough, or probably beyond.

此類洞見尤其引起訴訟出資人的興趣，后者支持原告以換取一定比例的損害賠償金，并在出錢之前試圖評(píng)估糾紛的可能結(jié)局。但是這種技術(shù)可能要到2019年乃至更遙遠(yuǎn)的未來才能突破。

People have been predicting consolidation in this very fragmented sector for years and there have indeed been big mergers recently. But there is little doubt that price pressures on City law firms are intensifying.

多年來，人們一直預(yù)測(cè)這個(gè)分散的行業(yè)將會(huì)整合，近期的確出現(xiàn)了大規(guī)模合并。但毫無疑問，倫敦金融城的律師事務(wù)所正在承受越來越大的價(jià)格壓力。

Big-spending US firms are forcing their UK counterparts to increase salaries right the way from newly qualifieds to the top rainmakers — though that did not stop David Higgins, private equity star at Freshfields, from decamping to Kirkland & Ellis just before Christmas. Boutique specialists are luring clients away by offering faster, more focused services.

出手闊綽的美國(guó)公司正迫使英國(guó)同行提高從新入行者到頂級(jí)風(fēng)云人物的薪資——盡管這并未阻止富爾德(Freshfields)的私募股權(quán)明星戴維•希金斯(David Higgins)在圣誕節(jié)前夕跳槽到凱易律師事務(wù)所(Kirkland & Ellis)。精品專業(yè)律所通過提供更快、更專注的服務(wù)來吸引客戶。

And in the UK, could this be the year that the big consultancies make proper inroads into the legal market? Will other “alternative business structures” — aka purveyors of “Tesco law” — finally gain a toehold at the consumer end by offering fixed-fee services, putting work out to tender to loose networks of lawyers, or cranking up the legal chatbot for instant, affordable advice? Someone has to bust this sector open for the sake of the average citizen.

在英國(guó)，今年可能是大型咨詢公司正式進(jìn)入法律市場(chǎng)的一年嗎?其他的“另類業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)”——或者說按照“樂購(gòu)法”(Tesco law)成立的律所——將通過提供固定費(fèi)用服務(wù)、把業(yè)務(wù)外包給松散的律師網(wǎng)絡(luò)，或者推出法律聊天機(jī)器人提供即時(shí)而實(shí)惠的建議，而終于立足消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)嗎?為了普通公民的利益，得有人突破這個(gè)領(lǐng)域。

Barney Thompson is legal correspondent

巴尼•湯普森(Barney Thompson)是法律記者

The gig economy 零工經(jīng)濟(jì)(gig economy)

If 2017 was the year policymakers began to worry about the growth of the “precariat”, 2018 will be the year they try to do something about it.

如果說2017年是政策制定者們開始擔(dān)心“無保障無產(chǎn)階級(jí)”(precariat)人數(shù)增長(zhǎng)的一年，那么2018年將是他們嘗試為此做些什么的一年。

The rise of populism, even in countries such as the US and UK where plenty of people are in work, has made politicians realise that the quality of jobs is as important as their quantity.

民粹主義的興起(即使在美國(guó)和英國(guó)這樣的就業(yè)人數(shù)眾多的國(guó)家也是如此)使得政客們認(rèn)識(shí)到，就業(yè)的質(zhì)量和數(shù)量同等重要。

They are beginning to fret far more about insecure contracts, precarious scheduling, low wages and new forms of work via online gig economy platforms such as Uber. The OECD, the influential Paris-based club for rich countries, will publish a “jobs strategy” in 2018 that is likely to put much more emphasis on the quality and inclusiveness of work.

他們開始對(duì)無保障合同、不穩(wěn)定的工作時(shí)間安排、微薄的工資以及依托優(yōu)步(Uber)等在線零工經(jīng)濟(jì)平臺(tái)的新形態(tài)工作感到憂心忡忡。總部位于巴黎的有影響力的富國(guó)俱樂部——經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)將于2018年發(fā)布《就業(yè)戰(zhàn)略》，其中可能會(huì)更加強(qiáng)調(diào)工作的質(zhì)量和包容性。

But what will politicians actually do? While President Trump is focused on bringing back traditional manufacturing jobs to America, different US states are experimenting with other policies to help low-paid precarious workers. These range from sharply higher minimum wages to new rules to stop employers changing staff schedules at the last minute.

但是政客們究竟會(huì)做什么呢?雖然特朗普總統(tǒng)致力于讓傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)崗位回流美國(guó)，但美國(guó)好幾個(gè)州正在試驗(yàn)其他政策來幫助無保障的低收入工人。這些政策各有不同，既有大幅提高最低工資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的措施，也有阻止雇主在最后一刻調(diào)整員工時(shí)間表的新規(guī)。

Enthusiastic supporters of the idea of a “universal basic income” for all citizens, meanwhile, will look to Finland where a trial is now well under way. In France, Emmanuel Macron will try to tread a delicate line in 2018 as he reforms the labour market, hoping to inject flexibility without increasing insecurity or incensing the unions.

與此同時(shí)，“全民基本收入”理念的熱心支持者將會(huì)關(guān)注芬蘭正在進(jìn)行的一個(gè)試點(diǎn)。在法國(guó)，埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)將在2018年審慎拿捏，改革勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)，希望在不加大工人不安全感或激怒工會(huì)的情況下注入靈活性。

As for the fortunes of the gig economy, the UK will be a key country to watch. The government is due to respond to an independent review into whether British law is keeping up with this new trend. Bold policy action — either in favour or against online labour platforms — now seems less likely given the fragility of the government and the time-consuming nature of Brexit.

就零工經(jīng)濟(jì)的命運(yùn)來說，英國(guó)將是一個(gè)值得關(guān)注的關(guān)鍵國(guó)家。英國(guó)政府將對(duì)一份關(guān)于英國(guó)法律是否跟得上這一新趨勢(shì)的獨(dú)立評(píng)估做出回應(yīng)。考慮到政府的脆弱性和耗時(shí)的英國(guó)退歐進(jìn)程，現(xiàn)在似乎不太可能出臺(tái)大膽的政策行動(dòng)——無論是支持還是反對(duì)在線勞動(dòng)力平臺(tái)。

But the UK courts may land a heavy blow on ride-hailing app Uber. In 2017, the California-based company failed to persuade an appeal judge that two of its London drivers are independent contractors. In 2018, the test case will go to the Court of Appeal and possibly to the Supreme Court. If Uber loses the case and is told to assume the responsibilities of an employer, the implications will ripple far and wide.

但英國(guó)法庭可能會(huì)沉重打擊優(yōu)步叫車應(yīng)用。2017年，總部位于加州的該公司未能讓上訴法官相信，其兩名倫敦司機(jī)是獨(dú)立的合同工。2018年，這個(gè)判例案件將會(huì)打到上訴法院，而且還可能打到最高法院。如果優(yōu)步敗訴，被要求承擔(dān)起雇主的責(zé)任，那將會(huì)產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響。

Sarah O’Connor is employment correspondent

莎拉•奧康納(Sarah O'Connor)是就業(yè)記者

Accounting and consultancy 會(huì)計(jì)和咨詢業(yè)

Management consultancies pride themselves on being expert advisers on “change” — from helping clients integrate after mergers, to keeping them at the cutting edge of new technology. Several of the world’s largest consultancies will have to make use of their own advice in 2018 as they prepare for leadership changes — the first in years — that will have significant ramifications for their workforce.

管理咨詢公司自豪地把自己視為針對(duì)“變化”提供咨詢的專家，從幫助客戶在并購(gòu)后實(shí)現(xiàn)整合，到幫助客戶置身于新技術(shù)的前沿。2018年，世界上最大的一些咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)將不得不好好采用自己的建議，因?yàn)樗鼈儗⒂瓉矶嗄陙硎状晤I(lǐng)導(dǎo)層變動(dòng)，這將對(duì)他們的員工隊(duì)伍具有重大潛在影響。

This includes McKinsey, the consultancy that kick-started its secretive leadership election process in October with a gathering of more than 500 senior partners at the Grosvenor House Hotel in London. The next stage involves the firm’s 550 senior partners voting on a shortlist of candidates to replace Dominic Barton — the incumbent since 2009 — in January, followed by a run-off between the two most popular candidates in February.

這其中包括麥肯錫(McKinsey)。去年10月，這家咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)的500多名高級(jí)合伙人匯聚倫敦格羅夫納豪斯酒店(Grosvenor House Hotel)，啟動(dòng)了神神秘秘的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層選舉程序。下一階段涉及該公司550名高級(jí)合伙人于1月對(duì)鮑達(dá)民(Dominic Barton)繼任者的候選名單進(jìn)行投票，之后在2月份對(duì)兩名人氣最高的候選人進(jìn)行第二輪投票。鮑達(dá)民自2009年起執(zhí)掌麥肯錫。

The winner will be announced in March, and is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of the consultancy. Some insiders favour candidates with expertise in fast-growing areas such as data analytics, whereas others want a traditionalist who will protect the firm’s brand.

麥肯錫將于3月宣布當(dāng)選者，預(yù)計(jì)此人將對(duì)麥肯錫的發(fā)展方向產(chǎn)生重大影響。一些內(nèi)部人士?jī)A向于那些在快速增長(zhǎng)領(lǐng)域(比如數(shù)據(jù)分析)具備專長(zhǎng)的候選人，而其他人想要一位可以維護(hù)公司品牌的傳統(tǒng)主義者。

Change is also under way at Bain & Company, which announced in November that Manny Maceda will become its global leader in March, the first of Asian heritage, and taking the reins of the Boston-based consultancy from Bob Bechek. Experts say Mr Maceda could be instrumental in helping the firm carve out new areas of expertise and edge away from its reputation as a generalist provider.

貝恩公司(Bain & Company)也正處于變革之中，去年11月該公司宣布曼尼•馬塞達(dá)(Manny Maceda)將于2018年3月成為其全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，從鮑勃•博切克(Bob Bechek)手中接管這家總部位于波士頓的咨詢機(jī)構(gòu);馬塞達(dá)將是該公司首位亞洲血統(tǒng)的掌門人。專家們表示，馬塞達(dá)可能推動(dòng)該公司開拓新的專長(zhǎng)領(lǐng)域，并擺脫業(yè)務(wù)多而不精的名聲。

The 54-year-old has already said he wants Bain to be recognised as a go-to provider of digital expertise. The question is whether this will be achieved through acquisitions, poaching teams or retraining the existing workforce.

54歲的馬塞達(dá)已經(jīng)表示，他希望貝恩被公認(rèn)為數(shù)字專長(zhǎng)的首選提供商。問題是，他會(huì)通過何種方式來實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)——收購(gòu)、挖人，或是對(duì)現(xiàn)有員工進(jìn)行再培訓(xùn)?

Chicago-based rival AT Kearney is also preparing for a change at the top, with a vote to replace Johan Aurik, who has already served the maximum two terms as managing partner, due to take place in the first quarter of 2018. His replacement will be expected to focus on how to pull AT Kearney out of the ranks of mid-sized players.

總部位于芝加哥的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手科爾尼(AT Kearney)也在為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層變動(dòng)做準(zhǔn)備，計(jì)劃于2018年第一季度投票決定接替約翰•奧利格(Johan Aurik)的人選。管理合伙人最多擔(dān)任兩個(gè)任期，而奧利格已經(jīng)期滿。預(yù)計(jì)他的繼任者將專注于讓科爾尼做大，擺脫中等規(guī)模參與者之列。

Boston Consulting Group could also be poised to make a change given its managing partner, Richard Lesser, is due to come to the end of his second term in October. His future is unclear, however, as the firm declined to comment on its election process or how many terms its leader can serve.

考慮到波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)(Boston Consulting Group)管理合伙人理查德•萊塞(Richard Lesser)的第二任期將于10月結(jié)束，該公司可能也將引來變化。然而，由于該公司拒絕就其選舉流程及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最多可以有幾個(gè)任期置評(píng)，萊塞的未來尚不明確。

The leadership changes across the industry will be of particular interest to female consulting professionals, given none of these firms have ever been run by a woman. Consulting firms are vocal proponents of the business case for improved gender diversity at the top of large companies. It will be interesting to see if any of them decide to practice what they preach.

鑒于這些公司都從未有過女性掌門人，整個(gè)咨詢行業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層變動(dòng)將尤其引起女性咨詢專業(yè)人員的興趣。咨詢公司在口頭上支持大企業(yè)改善領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層性別多元化的商業(yè)理由。讓我們拭目以待，看看這些公司會(huì)不會(huì)踐行自己推崇的觀念。

Madison Marriage is accounting and tax correspondent

麥迪遜•馬里奇(Madison Marriage)是會(huì)計(jì)和稅收事務(wù)記者

Start-ups 初創(chuàng)公司

The future is always bright if you are an entrepreneur, and the opportunities to create new ventures based on the digitisation of age-old services has a long way to run.

如果你是一名創(chuàng)業(yè)家，那么未來永遠(yuǎn)是光明的，基于傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)的數(shù)字化來創(chuàng)立新企業(yè)的機(jī)會(huì)簡(jiǎn)直取之不盡。

The education sector has remained largely unchanged by online service delivery — but could be transformed dramatically in 2018.

教育行業(yè)基本上還未受到在線服務(wù)交付的影響——但可能會(huì)在2018年經(jīng)歷戲劇性的變化。

Despite the promise of downloadable courses, teaching for officially recognised qualifications continues to be a classroom-based activity undertaken in the real world. Start-ups have taken the attitude that if they cannot beat the universities and colleges at their own game with new methods of delivery, they should join them in partnerships. As a result, they have been busy getting examining boards to endorse their online courses so that they can count towards a bachelor’s or master’s qualification.

盡管可以下載的課程具有較好前景，但在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界，得到官方承認(rèn)的學(xué)歷仍然基于課堂教學(xué)活動(dòng)。初創(chuàng)公司采取了這樣一種態(tài)度：如果他們無法以新的服務(wù)交付方式在高校的地盤上擊敗它們，那就應(yīng)該與之建立合作伙伴關(guān)系。其結(jié)果是，他們忙著爭(zhēng)取考試委員會(huì)核準(zhǔn)他們的在線課程，使其可以算作學(xué)士或碩士學(xué)位資格的一部分。

This has given “edtech” start-ups, such as Silicon Valley-based Coursera and London-based FutureLearn, a foothold in the market. Expect them to continue this year, perhaps with a merger with a bricks-and-mortar higher education establishment.

這使得“教育科技”初創(chuàng)公司(比如硅谷的Coursera和倫敦的FutureLearn)在市場(chǎng)上有了立足點(diǎn)。預(yù)計(jì)它們?cè)?018年將繼續(xù)這種模式，或許會(huì)與某個(gè)實(shí)體高等教育機(jī)構(gòu)合并。

At tech start-up conferences, such as Slush in Helsinki in December, everyone was talking about experiences. The coming year is likely to see a wider adoption of virtual reality, which places the user in a digitally enhanced environment, and augmented reality, which overlays digital information on to the real world, creating new digital businesses.

在科技初創(chuàng)公司大會(huì)上(比如去年12月在赫爾辛基舉辦的Slush)，各方都在討論體驗(yàn)。未來一年可能會(huì)看到更廣泛地采用虛擬實(shí)境(VR，讓用戶置身于數(shù)字化強(qiáng)化的環(huán)境中)和強(qiáng)化實(shí)境(AR，把數(shù)字信息疊加到現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中)來創(chuàng)建新的數(shù)字企業(yè)。

AR could be the bigger opportunity after Apple’s Tim Cook gave the technology his backing — it was included in Apple’s latest operating system and its iPhone X device.

在蘋果(Apple)的蒂姆•庫克(Tim Cook)支持AR后，該技術(shù)可能是更大的機(jī)遇。蘋果最新操作系統(tǒng)及新款手機(jī)iPhone X納入了AR技術(shù)。

The fastest growing start-ups tend to be global in their outlook. The immigration restrictions already imposed by President Trump in the US and those under consideration as part of the UK’s separation from the EU are likely to be a hindrance in the coming year for hiring.

發(fā)展最迅速的初創(chuàng)公司往往具有全球化的視野。未來一年，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普已經(jīng)實(shí)施的移民限制，以及英國(guó)作為退歐的一部分而在考慮的限制措施，可能會(huì)對(duì)企業(yè)招聘形成障礙。

The US and UK’s losses will be Germany, Sweden and Canada’s gain, as founders set up in the cosmopolitan hubs of Berlin, Stockholm and Toronto, which have spent the past year amplifying the message that they are open for business.

美英所失將是德國(guó)、瑞典和加拿大之獲，創(chuàng)始人們將在柏林、斯德哥爾摩和多倫多等國(guó)際大都市樞紐創(chuàng)辦新公司。這些大都市在過去一年都在強(qiáng)化對(duì)商業(yè)開放的信號(hào)。

The real disrupter is blockchain, the digital ledger for cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, which has fuelled the creation of hundreds of new businesses in recent years, mostly enabling the buying and selling of digital money and offering money transfer services.

真正具有顛覆性的是區(qū)塊鏈(比特幣等加密貨幣的數(shù)字帳簿)，該技術(shù)近年催生了數(shù)百家新企業(yè)，其業(yè)務(wù)大多是支持?jǐn)?shù)字貨幣的買賣，并提供轉(zhuǎn)賬服務(wù)。

Bitcoin’s value was on a sharp upward curve at the end of 2017. There is growing pressure on regulators to rein in the cryptocurrency sector, but bitcoin continues to flourish. This is not a market for the faint-hearted, however, as jobs will be created and lost.

2017年底，比特幣的價(jià)值呈現(xiàn)大幅上漲趨勢(shì)。監(jiān)管部門受到越來越大的壓力，要求他們約束加密貨幣領(lǐng)域，但比特幣勢(shì)頭不減。然而，這不是膽小鬼的市場(chǎng)，而且既會(huì)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)，也可能讓你失業(yè)。

Jonathan Moules is business education correspondent

喬納森•穆萊斯(Jonathan Moules)是商務(wù)教育記者