美國人不相信政客

Brace yourselves for a controversial observation: many US politicians are decent people. There — I’ve said it. Few Americans seem to agree. The public’s trust in their leaders is hitting an all-time low. Other than Brazil and Greece, no other democracy has such contempt for its system. The US is at the other end of the spectrum to China, where the public’s faith in government leads the world, according to Edelman’s global trust barometer.

準備好迎接一個有爭議的觀察心得：很多美國政客是正派人士。沒錯，這話是我說的。似乎沒有幾個美國人這么認為。美國公眾對其領導人的信任觸及歷史低點。除巴西和希臘外，沒有哪個民主國家如此鄙視本國的體制。Edelman全球信任度晴雨表顯示，中國公眾對政府的信任度居世界之首，而美國處于另一端。

“Nobody trusts anybody round here,” says Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator. “And most Americans don’t trust any of us.”

“這里沒有人信任任何人，”共和黨參議員林賽•格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)表示，“而大多數(shù)美國人不信任我們中的任何人。”

Can we blame them? At least partly, yes. The US government is of the people, by the people and for the people. Mistrust comes from the people too. Washington’s breakdown mirrors growing divisions in society — between white and non-white, graduates and non-graduates, city and hinterland, young and old. American politics has become a winner-takes-all game. Yet the constitution is built to work only when there is compromise. President Donald Trump can go to Davos this week because Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, agreed to reopen the US government. He could close it again when funding runs out in less than three weeks. Yet Mr Trump now taunts him as “Cryin’ Chuck”.

我們能怪他們嗎?至少在某些程度上，是該怪他們。美國政府是民治、民有、民享的政府。不信任也來自于民眾。華盛頓運轉不靈反映了美國社會日益加深的分裂——白人與非白人之間、畢業(yè)生與非畢業(yè)生之間、城市與鄉(xiāng)村之間、年輕人與老年人之間。美國政治已經(jīng)變成了一場贏家通吃的游戲。然而，憲法只有在各方妥協(xié)的情況下才能發(fā)揮作用。美國總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)上周能去達沃斯，是因為參議院民主黨領袖查克•舒默(Chuck Schumer)同意讓美國政府恢復運轉。臨時撥款支撐的時間只有三周，到時他可以讓政府再次停擺。然而，眼下特朗普奚落他是“哭鼻子的查克”。

What would Mr Trump be calling him if the Democrats had not caved in? The chances are no better today for a deal than yesterday. Almost eight out of 10 Republicans think immigration is too high; fewer than three out of 10 Democrats agree. One party is overwhelmingly white. The other is majority non-white. Mr Trump says he would be happy with more incomers from Norway. But he draws the line at Africa. It is not as if the two can find common ground somewhere in between — Mexico for example. Most of the so-called Dreamers are Hispanic. These are the people from whom Mr Trump wants to “take America back”. It follows that Cryin’ Chuck will have no better luck at protecting them early next month than he did this week.

如果民主黨沒有讓步，特朗普會怎么稱呼他呢?今天兩黨達成協(xié)議的概率并不比昨天高。每10名共和黨人中，近8人認為移民太多;但認為移民太多的民主黨人不到三分之一。其中一黨絕大多數(shù)是白人。另外一黨多數(shù)是非白人。特朗普稱，他會樂于看到更多來自挪威的移民。但是他對非洲移民沒有好話。兩黨在兩者之間——比如墨西哥——似乎找不到共同立場。大多數(shù)所謂的“夢想者”來自拉美國家。特朗普希望從這些人手中“奪回美國”。由此可見，“哭鼻子的查克”在下月初能夠保護他們的運氣并不會好過上周。

Evaporation of trust is corroding politics across the west. But it is most toxic in the US. No other democracy is heading towards a majority-minority future. The world has yet to see what happens to a society when its majority ceases to be one. No other country has seen such a collapse in support for public service.

信任感消失殆盡正侵蝕著西方國家的政治。但這個問題在美國最具毒性。除美國外，沒有哪個民主國家正在走向少數(shù)族裔占據(jù)多數(shù)人口的未來。世界還從未經(jīng)歷過，當一個社會的多數(shù)族裔不再占人口多數(shù)的時候會發(fā)生什么情況。就支持公共服務而言，沒有別的國家出現(xiàn)過這樣的崩潰。

Mr Trump will sing America’s virtues to the world’s biggest investors in Davos on Friday. Back home he is obliterating America’s ability to govern itself. In no other serious democracy is its head of government accusing the main law enforcement bodies, the judiciary and the intelligence agencies of bias. Supposedly neutral appointees are now required to show personal loyalty to the president.

上周五，特朗普在達沃斯論壇上向世界各大投資者夸耀美國的優(yōu)越性。在國內(nèi)，他正在毀滅美國本身的治國能力。從沒有哪個正經(jīng)民主國家的政府首腦指責本國主要執(zhí)法機構、司法機構和情報機構存在偏見。由總統(tǒng)任命的理應中立的官員，如今被要求向他個人效忠。

Probably the last institution Mr Trump has not criticised is the US military. That is no accident. Alone among America’s institutions, the armed forces enjoy high public trust. Almost three-quarters have confidence in the military, according to Gallup. No other comes close to winning half of America. Congress is barely at double digits. Mr Schumer should not have closed the US government unless he was prepared to hold fast. Within 72 hours he had changed his mind. In between, Mr Trump tweeted that Democrats were “holding the military hostage over their desire to have unchecked illegal immigration”. Say what you like about Mr Trump, but he knows where to find the jugular. Which American, hand on heart, would prefer an illegal foreigner to a citizen soldier?

美國軍隊很可能是最后一個未遭特朗普批評的機構。這并非偶然。在美國的各個機構中，只有武裝部隊享有高度的公眾信任。蓋洛普(Gallup)的調(diào)查顯示，近四分之三的美國人對軍隊有信心。沒有別的機構能夠贏得近一半美國人的信任。對國會的信任度勉強達到兩位數(shù)。除非舒默準備堅守立場，否則他確實不應該讓美國政府停擺。他在72小時內(nèi)就改變了主意。在此期間，特朗普在Twitter上發(fā)文稱，民主黨人“為了向非法移民敞開大門而把我們的軍隊當作人質(zhì)”。你愛怎么說特朗普都可以，但他知道在哪里找到對手的致命弱點。捫心自問，哪個美國人會喜歡一個非法的外國人勝過一個公民軍人?

But this is a dangerous journey. In a nation of tribes, only the warriors command respect. What happens if they lose it? A few months ago, I was sitting on a flight next to a young black woman in army uniform. A middle-aged white man walked back from business class to offer his seat. She politely refused. “Thank you for your service,” he said. Had she been a teacher, a lawmaker, a nurse or a central bank governor, nobody would have thanked her — let alone offered their seat.

但這是一條險徑。在一個由不同部落組成的國家，只有軍人才能贏得尊重。如果他們失去尊重會發(fā)生什么?幾個月前我搭乘航班，旁邊是一位身穿軍裝的年輕黑人女士。一名中年白人男子從商務艙走過來，想把自己的座位讓給她。她禮貌地婉拒了。“感謝您為國效力。”他說。如果她是一名教師、國會議員、護士或者央行行長，沒有人會感謝她——更不用說讓座了。

A generation ago, the US military was the most hated institution in America because of the Vietnam war. Today people flatter the uniform.

一代人之前，因為越南戰(zhàn)爭，美國軍隊成了國內(nèi)最令人痛恨的機構。如今，人們對軍人無比敬重。

Other public bodies should be studying how the Pentagon went from zero to hero. But the example runs both ways. If Mr Trump were to turn on the military, for example, there would be few places to hide. Likewise, if the army were to lose its confidence in elected politicians, the republic would be in trouble. We are closer to that point than many realise. The greatest bulwark between the US republic and a descent into tribalism are the men and women in uniform. We should ponder the implications of that. They are not reassuring.

其他公共機構應該研究五角大樓是如何從“狗熊”變?yōu)橛⑿鄣?。但是這個事也是兩方面的。例如，如果特朗普把批評的矛頭指向軍隊，就沒有多少地方可以隱藏了。同樣，如果軍隊對民選政界人士失去信心，美國這個共和國也會陷入麻煩。我們接近這一點的程度，超出許多人的意識。阻止美利堅合眾國淪為部落社會的最大壁壘是美國軍人。我們應該思考這其中的潛在影響。這些影響不能令人安心。