中國內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商大幅撤出香港土地市場

Chinese property developers have retreated sharply from Hong Kong’s booming land market, becoming the latest industry to be dented by Beijing’s capital controls and intensified scrutiny of outbound transactions.

中國內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商已從香港紅火的土地市場大幅撤出，成為最新一個被北京方面的資本管制和對出境交易的加強(qiáng)審查所累的行業(yè)。

Chinese developers won 11 per cent of bids by value in Hong Kong government land auctions since April, down from about 50 per cent in the preceding two years, according to an analysis of official data by Standard & Poor’s, the debt rating agency.

根據(jù)債務(wù)評級機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)對官方數(shù)據(jù)的分析，自去年4月以來，在香港政府的土地拍賣中，中國內(nèi)地開發(fā)商拍得的土地按價值計占總數(shù)的11%，而之前兩年的比例約為50%。

A range of Chinese companies, including debt-laden conglomerate HNA and developer China Vanke, piled into the Hong Kong property market over the past few years in an effort to capitalise on the surge in prices in the semi-autonomous Chinese territory.

過去幾年，為了搭上這塊半自治中國領(lǐng)土房價飆升的順風(fēng)車，包括負(fù)債累累的綜合性企業(yè)海航集團(tuán)(HNA)以及開發(fā)商萬科(China Vanke)在內(nèi)，有一系列中國內(nèi)地企業(yè)涌入香港房地產(chǎn)市場。

Densely populated Hong Kong has the world’s most unaffordable residential property, measured as a proportion of median income, according to Demographia, an urban planning consultancy.

根據(jù)城市規(guī)劃咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)Demographia的數(shù)據(jù)，按房價與收入中值之比衡量，人口稠密的香港的住宅地產(chǎn)是世界上最難以負(fù)擔(dān)的。

Prices have continued to set record highs, even as the city faces growing political tensions because of Beijing’s increasing intervention and a backlash from democracy activists.

香港房價持續(xù)創(chuàng)下新高，盡管這座城市正因北京方面越來越多的干預(yù)和民主活動人士的反彈而面臨日益加劇的政治緊張。

Esther Liu, an analyst at S&P, said the main reason for the pullback by Chinese developers was the clampdown on outbound investment by the Chinese government, which began in late-2016. Beijing has since intensified the crackdown as it seeks to stem capital outflows and discipline companies such as HNA that borrowed heavily to fund a flurry of overseas deals.

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾分析師Esther Liu表示，中國內(nèi)地開發(fā)商撤出香港的主要原因是，中國政府自2016年底開始打壓對外投資。后來，為了遏制資本外流并管教像海航這樣靠大幅舉債籌資展開一系列海外并購的企業(yè)，北京方面加強(qiáng)了打壓力度。

Ms Liu said that Chinese developers were also deterred by the longer development cycle in Hong Kong, compared with mainland China.

Esther Liu表示，內(nèi)地開發(fā)商面臨的另一個障礙是，相比內(nèi)地，香港的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)周期更長。

She said it typically took six to nine months in China for developers to progress from buying land to launching their first off-plan sales. In Hong Kong, by contrast, it can take several years to plan the development of the site and obtain the required permissions.

她表示，在內(nèi)地，開發(fā)商從拿地到出售首批期房的流程一般需要6到9個月。而在香港，可能需要好幾年的時間來規(guī)劃地塊開發(fā)并獲得所需的批準(zhǔn)。

Ingrid Cheh, an associate director of research at Jones Lang LaSalle, the real estate services company, said mainland developers still “have a mandate to plant a flag in the Hong Kong in the residential sector”.

房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)公司仲量聯(lián)行(Jones Lang LaSalle)香港研究部副董事車永筠(Ingrid Cheh)表示，內(nèi)地開發(fā)商仍“背負(fù)著在香港住宅地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域豎起一面旗幟的任務(wù)”。

But she said she believed they would be more cautious than in previous years because of the capital controls. Ms Cheh also expects more mainland developers to enter joint ventures with the big local property developers such as Sun Hung Kai and Cheung Kong, which have traditionally dominated the market.

但她表示，她認(rèn)為由于資本管制，內(nèi)地開發(fā)商將比前幾年更加謹(jǐn)慎。車永筠還預(yù)計，內(nèi)地開發(fā)商將更多地與新鴻基(Sun Hung Kai)、長江實業(yè)(Cheung Kong)等傳統(tǒng)上控制香港房地產(chǎn)市場的本地大開發(fā)商建立合資企業(yè)。

Despite the retreat of the mainland developers, analysts forecast that Hong Kong property prices will continue to rise.

盡管內(nèi)地開發(fā)商撤出，分析師們?nèi)灶A(yù)測香港房價將繼續(xù)上漲。

Ms Cheh expects residential prices to jump 10 per cent this year, with the luxury market growing even more strongly.

車永筠預(yù)計，住宅地產(chǎn)價格今年將躍升10%，高端市場的增長將更為強(qiáng)勁。

Ms Liu also forecasts that prices will increase but she believes an expansion in housing supply and the possibility of further interest rate rises will cool the pace of growth.

Esther Liu也預(yù)計香港房價會上升，但她認(rèn)為，住房供應(yīng)的擴(kuò)大和進(jìn)一步加息的可能性將減緩增速。

Additional reporting by Nicolle Liu Nicolle Liu補(bǔ)充報道