美聯(lián)儲看好美國經濟增長

The US economic expansion is set to gain momentum, hardening the arguments for increases in short-term interest rates, Federal Reserve policymakers said at their latest meeting.

美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的政策制定者們在最近一次會議上表示，美國經濟的增長勢頭將進一步增強，這加強了上調短期利率的理由。

A number of participants in the US central bank’s January 30-31 meeting said they had marked up their growth forecasts since the previous month, encouraged by firm global growth, supportive financial markets and the potential for US tax cuts to boost the economy more than expected. Others said the “upside risks” to growth may have increased, according to minutes of the gathering.

美國央行1月30日至31日會議的多名與會者表示，自上月開始，他們已調高了增長預期，受全球經濟強勁增長、金融市場呈現(xiàn)支持態(tài)勢，以及美國減稅措施對經濟提振作用可能超出預期的鼓舞。此次會議的紀要顯示，另一些人表示，經濟增長的“上行風險”可能有所增加。

“A majority of participants noted that a stronger outlook for economic growth raised the likelihood that further gradual policy firming would be appropriate,” according to the record released on Wednesday.

周三公布的會議記錄顯示，“大多數與會者指出，更強勁的經濟增長前景增加了這種可能性，即進一步逐漸收緊政策將是適當的。”

The Fed’s rate-setters reflected the increased arguments for rate rises by changing the language in their post-meeting statement to point to “further” rate rises.

反映支持加息的觀點有所增加的是，美聯(lián)儲的利率制定者們在會后的聲明中改變了措辭，指出利率會“進一步”提高。

The Fed’s most recent policy meeting was held shortly before the departure of Janet Yellen as chair and the outbreak of market volatility that greeted Jay Powell, her successor, during his first days on the job. Policymakers including Bill Dudley, the New York Fed president, have stressed that the gyrations in the equity market were unlikely to shake the central bank’s plans to continue its gradual programme of rate rises.

美聯(lián)儲的最近一次政策會議是在前主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)卸任前不久舉行的，她的繼任者杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)剛剛上任就迎來了市場的動蕩。紐約聯(lián)儲主席比爾•達德利(Bill Dudley)等政策制定者強調，股市的波動不太可能動搖央行推進逐漸加息的計劃。

While January’s deliberations predated the worst of the market fluctuations, the record suggests that Fed officials have become more confident about the economy since their December meeting, when they last raised interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate on hold at 1.25 to 1.5 per cent at the January meeting, while laying the ground for another move at the March 20-21 meeting.

雖然1月份的討論早于市場動蕩最激烈之時，但會議紀要似乎表明，自美聯(lián)儲在去年12月會議上加息以來，美聯(lián)儲官員們對經濟的信心有所增強。聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在1月會議上將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標區(qū)間維持在1.25%到1.5%之間，同時為3月20日至21日會議上再次加息做好了鋪墊。

A key question in markets now is whether the Fed could opt to boost rates four times in 2018, rather than the three moves currently forecast. The immediate market response to the minutes suggested they did not significantly advance that debate: the yield on the 10-year Treasury declined modestly and the dollar softened a little, but both moves were muted. Fed funds futures were little changed.

當前市場上的一個關鍵問題是，美聯(lián)儲會不會選擇在2018年四次加息，而不是目前預測的三次?市場對會議紀要的即時回應似乎表明，紀要內容并未顯著推進這場辯論：10年期美國國債收益率小幅下降，美元小幅走軟，但兩項變動都很微小。聯(lián)邦基金利率期貨則幾乎沒有變化。