經(jīng)合組織：債務(wù)上升“挑戰(zhàn)”發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家

Developed nations face a rising tide of government debt that poses “a significant challenge” to budgets as interest rates increase around the world, the OECD has warned.

經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD，以下簡(jiǎn)稱“經(jīng)合組織”)警告稱，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家面臨日益上升的政府債務(wù)，隨著世界各地利率上調(diào)，這些債務(wù)對(duì)其預(yù)算構(gòu)成“重大挑戰(zhàn)”。

Low interest rates have helped sustain high levels of government debt and persistent budget deficits since the financial crisis, according to the OECD, but the “relatively favourable” sovereign funding environment “may not be a permanent feature of financial markets”.

經(jīng)合組織稱，從金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)至今，低利率幫助各國(guó)政府維持高債務(wù)水平和持續(xù)的預(yù)算赤字，但“相對(duì)有利”的主權(quán)融資環(huán)境“可能并非金融市場(chǎng)的永久特征”。

Fatos Koc, senior policy analyst at the OECD, cautioned that most members of the organisation — sometimes dubbed the rich nations’ club — confront an “increasing refinancing burden from maturing debt, combined with continued budget deficits”.

經(jīng)合組織有時(shí)被稱為“富國(guó)俱樂(lè)部”。經(jīng)合組織的高級(jí)政策分析師法托什•科奇(Fatos Koc)告誡稱，該組織的大多數(shù)成員國(guó)面臨“債務(wù)到期帶來(lái)的日益加重的再融資負(fù)擔(dān)，再加上持續(xù)的預(yù)算赤字”。

The warning on the longer-term consequences of high public borrowing marks a shift in stance by the OECD, which as recently as November was praising countries for easing fiscal policy to help global growth.

對(duì)大規(guī)模公共借款的較長(zhǎng)期后果發(fā)出警告，標(biāo)志著經(jīng)合組織的立場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變。就在去年11月，該組織還在贊揚(yáng)各國(guó)放寬財(cái)政政策以幫助全球增長(zhǎng)。

In an Economic Outlook, published at that time, the Paris-based organisation said that “even a lasting increase in 10-year government bond yields of 1 percentage point . . . might worsen budget balances on average by only between 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent of GDP annually in the following three years”.

在當(dāng)時(shí)發(fā)布的《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(Economic Outlook)中，設(shè)在巴黎的經(jīng)合組織表示，“就算10年期國(guó)債收益率持續(xù)上升1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)……預(yù)算平衡在接下來(lái)3年的年均惡化幅度也僅相當(dāng)于國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的0.1%至0.3%”。

But Ms Koc now argues that the wisdom of using fiscal measures as economic stimulus depends on an individual country’s budget position, and that it is “important to create strong fiscal roots in an economy while times are good”.

但現(xiàn)在科奇主張，利用財(cái)政措施作為經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激手段是否明智，要看具體國(guó)家的預(yù)算處境，而“在形勢(shì)良好的時(shí)候，在經(jīng)濟(jì)中建立強(qiáng)勁的財(cái)政根基很重要”。

The total stock of OECD countries’ sovereign debt has increased from $25tn in 2008 to more than $45tn this year. Debt to GDP ratios across the OECD averaged 73 per cent last year, and its members are set to borrow £10.5tn from the markets this year.

今年，經(jīng)合組織成員國(guó)主權(quán)債務(wù)的總存量達(dá)到45萬(wàn)億美元以上，遠(yuǎn)高于2008年的25萬(wàn)億美元。去年經(jīng)合組織成員國(guó)的債務(wù)與GDP之比平均達(dá)到73%，而今年這些成員國(guó)將要從市場(chǎng)借入10.5萬(wàn)億英鎊。

Because much of the debt raised in the aftermath of the financial crisis is set to mature in the coming years, developed nations will have to refinance 40 per cent of their total debt stock in the next three years, the OECD said.

經(jīng)合組織表示，由于在金融危機(jī)過(guò)后借入的很大一部分債務(wù)將在未來(lái)幾年到期，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家需要在接下來(lái)3年對(duì)40%的存量債務(wù)進(jìn)行再融資。