特朗普關(guān)稅將對中國產(chǎn)生什么影響？

SHANGHAI — Thanks to President Trump’s tariffs, Americans will soon be paying more for a wide variety of Chinese-made goods, and some American customers may end up buying from other countries instead.

上海——由于特朗普總統(tǒng)的關(guān)稅，美國民眾很快就要花更多的錢才能買到中國制造的各種商品，一些消費者最終可能會轉(zhuǎn)而購買其他國家的東西。

For now, China can live with that.

眼下，中國可以承受這一點。

The tariffs the White House announced on Friday will have little immediate impact on China, despite the size of the $50 billion in goods involved and the invective the move set off from Chinese official news media. Mr. Trump’s tariffs are ultimately too small and narrowly targeted to seriously affect China’s nearly $13 trillion economy, which no longer depends so much on exports and can easily find other places besides the United States to sell its products. In some ways, they are even smaller than tariffs imposed by previous presidents.

白宮周五宣布征收的關(guān)稅幾乎不會對中國產(chǎn)生直接影響，盡管關(guān)稅會影響500億美元(約合3200億元人民幣)的商品，并引發(fā)了中國官方新聞媒體的抨擊。特朗普的關(guān)稅從根本上來說規(guī)模太小，目標(biāo)太狹隘，無法對中國近13萬億美元的經(jīng)濟造成嚴(yán)重影響。中國經(jīng)濟不再那么依賴出口，并且輕而易舉就能找到除美國之外的其他地方銷售產(chǎn)品。在某些方面，這次關(guān)稅規(guī)模甚至不及以前的總統(tǒng)征收的關(guān)稅。

The tariffs could spread, of course. The United States has threatened to impose tariffs on $100 billion more in Chinese-made goods and could theoretically hit more than $500 billion in products, the total amount that Americans buy from China. China could retaliate with its own tariffs on the United States’ far smaller exports in the other direction across the Pacific, plus impose punitive measures against American companies doing business here.

當(dāng)然，關(guān)稅規(guī)?？赡軙U大。美國威脅要對另外1000億美元的中國商品征收關(guān)稅，理論上可能會影響超過5000億美元的產(chǎn)品。這相當(dāng)于美國從中國進口的總額。中國可能會進行報復(fù)，對美國出口至太平洋對岸的商品——規(guī)模遠小于進口——征收關(guān)稅，并對在華開展業(yè)務(wù)的美國公司采取懲罰性措施。

Any measures carry the risk that they could disrupt the global supply chain in sudden and unexpected ways, or could damage confidence among investors in building factories and other businesses in either country. Already there are signs of strains in the global economy from the broader trade tensions, weakness that China and the United States are both better positioned to weather than other nations.

任何措施都有可能以突然的和意想不到的方式擾亂全球供應(yīng)鏈，或損害投資者在兩國設(shè)立工廠和其他企業(yè)的信心。已經(jīng)有跡象表明，全球經(jīng)濟因更廣泛的貿(mào)易緊張局勢而承壓，而中國和美國都比其他國家更有能力度過這種難關(guān)。

Still, the absence of immediate impact could also give both sides breathing room to calm down.

但沒有造成直接影響也給了雙方冷靜下來的喘息空間。

Each has its reasons for ducking a fight. The United States may need China’s help to keep its uneasy peace with North Korea. Beijing has stickier issues, like breaking the country’s addiction to debt-fueled economic growth without hurting growth. Already some indicators show signs of a slowdown, though if it worsens significantly Beijing may find Mr. Trump’s tariffs could make a convenient scapegoat.

兩國都有避免貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的理由。美國可能需要中國的幫助來維持與朝鮮暫時的和平。北京也有一些棘手的問題，比如在不損害經(jīng)濟增長的條件下打破中國對債務(wù)驅(qū)動的經(jīng)濟增長的依賴。已經(jīng)有一些指標(biāo)顯示出了放緩的跡象，但如果情況嚴(yán)重惡化，中國政府可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)，特朗普的關(guān)稅是一個現(xiàn)成的替罪羊。

China in particular risks being distracted. Its point person on tackling debt, a senior economic official named Liu He, has also been deeply involved in trade negotiations, though Chinese officials say Beijing has the bandwidth to handle both.

中國尤其面臨精力被分散的風(fēng)險。其負責(zé)解決債務(wù)問題的核心人物、高級經(jīng)濟官員劉鶴也深入?yún)⑴c了貿(mào)易談判，但中國官員稱，北京有能力應(yīng)對這兩方面的問題。

“The strain on the top leadership as it tries to fend off a trade war with the U.S. as well as de-risk China’s financial sector is considerable,” said Diana Choyleva, the chief economist with Enodo Economics, a London research firm specializing in China. “They cannot afford to drop the ball on either front.”

“中國高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在努力避免與美國爆發(fā)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)和降低中國金融領(lǐng)域的風(fēng)險時承受的壓力相當(dāng)大，”倫敦專門研究中國問題的研究公司伊諾多經(jīng)濟公司(Enodo Economics)的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家戴安娜·喬伊利瓦(Diana Choyleva)說。“兩個陣地都不能出錯。”

For both sides, the issue has become far more than a struggle over nuts-and-bolts economics. It has become a battle over which country will dominate the high-wage, high-skill industries of tomorrow. Washington and Beijing alike see those industries as essential to protecting national security and to creating jobs.

對雙方來說，這個議題已經(jīng)遠非一場圍繞具體的經(jīng)濟問題而展開的斗爭。它已經(jīng)成了圍繞哪個國家會主宰未來高薪酬、高技術(shù)行業(yè)而爆發(fā)的一場戰(zhàn)斗。華盛頓和北京都認為，這些行業(yè)對保護國家安全和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會至關(guān)重要。

The Trump administration is pushing hard for curbs on China’s $300 billion government program to bolster these industries, called Made in China 2025. Beijing aims to make the country a leader in the manufacturing of advanced products, including computer microchips and commercial aircraft. The Trump administration’s statement announcing tariffs managed to mention the Chinese industrial policy program no fewer than five times.

特朗普政府正在大力爭取限制中國一個旨在扶持這些行業(yè)的政府計劃。該計劃名叫《中國制造2025》，涉及資金3000億美元。北京的目標(biāo)是讓中國成為先進產(chǎn)品，包括計算機微芯片和商用飛機制造的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。在特朗普政府宣布征收關(guān)稅的聲明中，中國這項工業(yè)政策計劃被提到不下五次。

But China appears just as determined to preserve the program. And the trade issue has become so high profile that the Chinese public has come to expect that Beijing will push back hard against the Trump administration’s trade measures.

但中國似乎也決心要維持這個計劃。并且貿(mào)易問題變得如此廣受關(guān)注，以至中國民眾期待北京會大力回擊特朗普政府的貿(mào)易措施。

“This pressure will be high,” said Tu Xinquan, the director of the China Institute of World Trade Organization Studies in Beijing. “There is no way to move back.”

“這種壓力會很大，”北京的中國世界貿(mào)易組織研究院院長屠新泉表示。“沒有后退的辦法。”

While the American tariffs could hurt specific Chinese industries, they will probably do little to hit China’s overall growth.

盡管美國關(guān)稅可能會對特定的中國行業(yè)造成傷害，但可能對中國的整體增長沒多大影響。

Under the tariffs announced on Friday, American buyers must pay 25 percent of the wholesale cost of Chinese-made goods when they hit American docks. The tariffs will ultimately be levied on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, including electric cars and aircraft navigational equipment.

按照周五宣布的關(guān)稅，當(dāng)中國制造的商品到達美國碼頭時，美國購買者必須要支付其批發(fā)成本的25%。美國最終將對價值500億美元的中國出口商品加征關(guān)稅，包括電動汽車和飛機導(dǎo)航設(shè)備。

While $50 billion sounds like a lot, that represents just 0.4 percent of the Chinese economy. The details suggest the impact may be even less.

盡管500億美元聽起來很多，但它只占中國經(jīng)濟的0.4%。相關(guān)細節(jié)表明，中國受到的影響可能更小。

The tariff level, 25 percent, is fairly small compared with those imposed by previous presidents. President Barack Obama put a 35 percent penalty on Chinese-made car- and light-truck tires during his first year in office, President George W. Bush imposed rates of as much as 30 percent on imported steel during his second year in office, while President Ronald Reagan imposed a 100 percent toll on some Japanese electronics near the end of his second term. All those were eventually dropped.

與前任總統(tǒng)曾經(jīng)施加的關(guān)稅相比，25%的關(guān)稅水平相當(dāng)?shù)?。貝拉?middot;奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)上任第一年期間，曾對中國生產(chǎn)的汽車及輕型卡車輪胎處以35%的處罰;喬治·W·布什(George W. Bush)上任第二年時，對進口的鋼材征收高達30%的關(guān)稅;而羅納德·里根(Ronald Reagan)在其第二屆任期即將結(jié)束時，對一些日本電子產(chǎn)品征收了100%的關(guān)稅。上述所有關(guān)稅最終都被取消。

Some American buyers of Chinese goods may simply choose to pay the newly imposed tariffs rather than find new suppliers elsewhere. Brad Setser, a Treasury official in the Obama administration who is now an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that China’s exports to the United States in the affected categories could easily be halved by the tariffs. But they would not disappear entirely, as some Chinese products would still be competitive in terms of cost.

一些購買中國商品的美國人可能會選擇為新加征的關(guān)稅付錢，而不是在別的地方找到新的供貨商。奧巴馬政府的財政部官員、現(xiàn)為外交關(guān)系委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家布拉德·塞策(Brad Setser)表示，在受到影響的類目內(nèi)的中國對美出口很容易減半，但不會完全消失，因為在成本方面，中國的一些商品仍然具有競爭力。

Some of the same goods could probably be sold to other countries at slightly lower prices, further limiting the effect on the Chinese economy, Mr. Setser said.

塞策說，一些同樣的商品可能會以較為低廉的價格賣給其他國家，更進一步限制了關(guān)稅對中國經(jīng)濟的影響。

Moreover, China’s exports could grow in other areas to offset any drop. Its exports to the United States are already increasing by more than $50 billion each year, and more than 90 percent of China’s exports to the United States are not covered by the tariffs.

此外，中國的出口可能在其他地區(qū)得到增長，抵消任何下滑。該國對美國的出口每年已經(jīng)有超過500億美元的增長，而且有超過90%的中國對美出口不在此次關(guān)稅之列。

“Even with tariffs on one-tenth of total imports from China, overall imports from China would likely rise,” Mr. Setser said.

“盡管對來自中國進口商品的十分之一加征關(guān)稅，來自中國的整體進口還是可能會增長，”塞策說。

The tariffs could have a longer-term effect on China, however.

然而，關(guān)稅可能會對中國造成較為長期的影響。

Devised as essentially a pre-emptive strike against Chinese subsidies in the Made in China 2025 program, the Trump tariffs could limit eventual sales from these industries. And with the European Union also protesting the Made in China 2025 program, those exports to Europe could suffer, too.

特朗普關(guān)稅的設(shè)計初衷，是用來作為對《中國制造2025》計劃中中國補貼的先發(fā)制人的打擊，該關(guān)稅可能會最終限制來自這些行業(yè)的銷售。而且由于歐盟也在抗議《中國制造2025》，那些出口到歐盟的商品也可能受到損失。

Longer term, the tariffs could spur American companies to move their factories elsewhere. But companies have been reluctant so far to move, as China’s world-class transportation system and well-trained work force still make it highly competitive in all but the lowest-skill, lowest-wage industries.

更長遠來看，關(guān)稅可能會引發(fā)美國公司將工廠搬到其他地方。但迄今為止，各家公司一直不愿意將工廠遷址，因為中國有著世界一流的交通體系以及訓(xùn)練有序的勞動力，這仍能讓它在幾乎最低端技術(shù)、最低薪水的行業(yè)中極具競爭力。

On the flip side, the tariffs could help the Chinese government take the heat if the broader economy starts to falter. The economy could slow further as Beijing intensifies debt reduction efforts. Chinese leaders could blame Washington for the slowdown instead.

另一方面，如果整體經(jīng)濟開始衰退，關(guān)稅可以幫中國政府承受壓力。隨著北京加強削減債務(wù)的努力，中國經(jīng)濟可能進一步放緩。中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可以將放緩的責(zé)任歸咎于華盛頓。

While American and European business have long criticized China for not living up to its promises on trade, Chinese officials point to significant moves to free up its limits on foreign businesses since Mr. Trump was elected. These include the removal of what had been a 25 percent limit on foreign investment in Chinese banks. China also plans to lower its tariffs on imported cars.

盡管美國及歐洲企業(yè)一直批評中國沒有實現(xiàn)在貿(mào)易方面的承諾，但中國官員指出，自特朗普被選為總統(tǒng)以來，中國采取了重大舉措，放開對外國企業(yè)的限制。這些措施包括取消曾經(jīng)對外國投資中國銀行的25%限制。中國還計劃要降低對進口汽車的關(guān)稅。

“They’ve done the things they said,” said Andrew Polk, a co-founder of Trivium/China, a Beijing economic consulting firm. “You’ve got to give them that.”

“他們已經(jīng)做到了曾經(jīng)說過的話，”北京的經(jīng)濟咨詢公司策偉(Trivium/China)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人安德魯·波爾克(Andrew Polk)說。“這點你要認可。”