中國試圖控制債務(wù)，信貸緊縮卻傷害了經(jīng)濟

SHANGHAI — China’s government has been trying to break the country’s addiction to ever-rising debt, but its effort to crack down on easy money is starting to hit growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.

上海——中國政府一直試圖打破對不斷增長的債務(wù)的依賴，但其打擊寬松貨幣的行動已開始影響這個全球第二大經(jīng)濟體的增長。

Beijing has been concerned in recent years about the increased reliance on credit to keep the economy expanding briskly, worrying that it could lead to a financial crisis, or to a long period of stagnation like the one in Japan after the real estate market burst in the early 1990s.

近年來，北京一直對越來越依賴信貸保持經(jīng)濟快速增長的情況感到不安，擔(dān)心可能會引發(fā)金融危機或長期停滯，就像90年代初日本在房地產(chǎn)市場崩盤后發(fā)生的那樣。

But curbing debt may have significant consequences in China and elsewhere. Countries around the world are much more closely tied to China than ever before, because of its role not just as the world’s biggest manufacturer by far but also, increasingly, as a consumer. An economic slowdown in China — coupled with the knock-on effects of widening trade disputes and slowing growth in Europe — may augur poorly for a global economy that even recently seemed in rude health.

但控制債務(wù)可能會在中國和其他地方產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響。如今，世界各國與中國的聯(lián)系比以往任何時候都更緊密，因為它不僅是迄今為止全球最大的制造國，而且越來越多地扮演起了消費國的角色。雖然全球經(jīng)濟最近似乎相當(dāng)健康，但中國經(jīng)濟放緩，連同貿(mào)易爭端擴大和歐洲增長放緩的連鎖效應(yīng)，對全球經(jīng)濟來說可能是個不好的兆頭。

Domestically, China’s credit crackdown has affected smaller businesses hardest. Though the country often appears to be dominated by its vast conglomerates and hulking state-owned enterprises, its economy is, in reality, somewhat more reliant on small businesses than its Western counterparts. And the way Beijing has gone about curbing lending in recent months is unintentionally hitting the most entrepreneurial segments of the economy, the governor of China’s central bank acknowledged in a speech on Thursday in Shanghai.

在國內(nèi)，中國控制信貸對小企業(yè)的影響最大。盡管中國經(jīng)?？瓷先ナ潜淮笮推髽I(yè)集團(tuán)和龐大的國有企業(yè)主導(dǎo)，但實際上，中國經(jīng)濟在一定程度上比西方經(jīng)濟更依賴小企業(yè)。中國央行行長周四在上海的一次講話中承認(rèn)，北京最近幾個月對限制借貸的處理方式，在無意中傷害了最有創(chuàng)業(yè)氛圍的經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域。

Over all, there is growing evidence that a credit crunch is taking a toll on the Chinese economy.

總的來說，越來越多的證據(jù)表明，信貸緊縮正在傷害中國經(jīng)濟。

The National Bureau of Statistics released data in Beijing on Thursday showing that investment, retail sales and industrial production all slowed in May. The slowdowns in investment and retail sales were particularly sharp and unexpected.

中國國家統(tǒng)計局周四在北京發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，5月投資、零售和工業(yè)生產(chǎn)均有所放緩。投資和零售領(lǐng)域的放緩特別劇烈和出人意料。

With that backdrop of eroding economic growth, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, conspicuously did not match on Thursday the Federal Reserve’s increase to interest rates on Wednesday. It had at least partly matched previous Federal Reserve interest rate rises since the autumn.

周四，在經(jīng)濟增長放緩的背景下，中國央行中國人民銀行沒有在美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)周三加息后相應(yīng)加息。此舉不同尋常。此前，在美聯(lián)儲自去年秋天以來多次加息時，該行至少在一定程度上采取了相應(yīng)的加息措施。

An index of 300 large-company stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped 0.4 percent on Thursday, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.9 percent on the poor economic news from the mainland.

周四，滬深300指數(shù)下跌0.4%，香港恒生指數(shù)也在內(nèi)地傳出經(jīng)濟疲軟的消息后應(yīng)聲下跌0.9%。

With the Chinese economy showing signs of slowing and the authorities making it harder to borrow, small businesses are particularly vulnerable. They represent about three-fifths of economic output in China, compared with around half in Germany, Japan and the United States, according to Yi Gang, the governor of the People’s Bank of China.

隨著中國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)出放緩的跡象，當(dāng)局提高借貸難度，小型企業(yè)尤其脆弱。據(jù)中國人民銀行行長易綱稱，小企業(yè)在中國的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出中約占五分之三，而在德國、日本和美國，這個比例約為一半。

Now many of those small businesses are struggling for loans because of a wide-ranging government crackdown. Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s both downgraded China’s sovereign debt credit rating last year because of concerns about the country’s debt overhang.

現(xiàn)在，由于政府的大范圍打擊，很多小企業(yè)都難以獲得貸款。去年，因為擔(dān)心中國的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，穆迪(Moody’s)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor’s)下調(diào)了中國的主權(quán)債務(wù)信用評級。

The downgrades were among many reasons the government has tightened some curbs on borrowing since the end of the autumn. Beijing has particularly clamped down on lending by online finance companies and other private sector businesses that bypass the state-controlled banking system.

評級被調(diào)低是中國政府從去年秋末開始收緊借貸限制措施的眾多原因之一。中國對越過國有銀行體系的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司和其他私營企業(yè)的打擊尤其嚴(yán)厲。

While commercial banks have continued to lend the money they hold from deposits, these conventional loans go mainly to state-owned enterprises. Private lenders, meanwhile, charge interest rates that are double or triple the 6 percent charged by banks, but they are often the only source of financing for small businesses.

盡管商業(yè)銀行繼續(xù)用吸收到的存款放貸，但這些常規(guī)貸款主要流向國有企業(yè)。相比之下，民間借貸收取的利率是銀行利率6%的兩倍或三倍，但它們往往是小企業(yè)唯一的資金來源。

Despite the higher interest rates, “we should also fully affirm the significance of private loans, which are an important supplement” to bank lending in the Chinese economy, said Mr. Yi, speaking at the Lujiazui Forum, a gathering in Shanghai of China’s top financial regulators. The forum, held at the start of each summer, is one of the Chinese government’s main channels for signaling the direction of Chinese monetary and financial policy.

易綱在陸家嘴論壇上說，盡管利率上調(diào)，但是在中國的經(jīng)濟中，“我們要充分地肯定民間融資的重要性”，對于銀行借貸來說，“民間融資也是一個重要的補充”。該論壇是每年夏初在上海舉辦的中國高級金融監(jiān)管者聚會，是中國政府發(fā)出中國貨幣和經(jīng)濟政策走向信號的主要渠道之一。

Even before deciding on Thursday morning not to match the Fed’s rate increase, though, the Chinese government had already made a pair of moves that appear to have been elaborately crafted to channel more money to smaller, more entrepreneurial businesses.

盡管周四上午決定不跟進(jìn)美聯(lián)儲的加息，但中國政府在此前已經(jīng)做出兩項舉措，似乎是為了向規(guī)模更小、更具創(chuàng)業(yè)精神的企業(yè)輸送更多資金而精心設(shè)計的。

At the start of this month, the central bank said that commercial banks could use some of their small-business loans as collateral for borrowing money at low interest rates directly from the central bank. And on April 17, it told commercial banks that they could reduce the amount of money they set aside unprofitably as reserves, provided that they took actions that would leave them with more cash to lend to small and midsize businesses.

央行在本月初表示，商業(yè)銀行可將對小型企業(yè)的貸款作為抵押，直接從央行以低利率借入資金。4月17日，央行告知商業(yè)銀行，假若它們采取措施獲得更多向中小型企業(yè)借貸的資金，就可以減少無利的存款準(zhǔn)備金。

Gary Liu, the president of the China Financial Reform Institute, a Shanghai-based research group, said on the sidelines of the Lujiazui Forum that China’s private-sector companies of all sizes, even large ones, had long faced challenges in obtaining loans. But the credit squeeze on them this spring has been particularly painful.

上海的研究機構(gòu)中國金融改革研究院院長劉勝軍在參加陸家嘴論壇時表示，中國各種規(guī)模的私營企業(yè)——甚至是大規(guī)模的私營企業(yè)，都在獲取貸款方面長期面臨挑戰(zhàn)。但今年年春的信貸緊縮對他們的影響格外嚴(yán)重。

“It’s very bad, and we see not just small and medium-sized enterprises defaulting but even big companies defaulting,” he said.

“這很不好，我們看到的不只是中小型企業(yè)違約，就連大公司都在違約，”他說。

Some financial regulators nevertheless appear determined to maintain the crackdown on informal lending.

但一些金融監(jiān)管者似乎決心繼續(xù)打擊非正規(guī)貸款。

Speaking at the forum, Guo Shuqing, the chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, called for further rigor. He warned the audience against putting money into the dwindling number of online finance companies that still offered high returns on investment. While some informal lending operations provide valuable credit to small businesses, others have proved to be fraudulent.

中國銀行保險監(jiān)督管理委員會主席郭樹清在論壇上發(fā)言時，呼吁進(jìn)一步嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管。他提醒聽眾不要把資金投入數(shù)量不斷減少、仍在提供高投資回報的網(wǎng)絡(luò)金融公司。盡管有一些非正式貸款業(yè)務(wù)為小企業(yè)提供了寶貴的信貸，但也有一些被證明是欺詐性的。

“You need to report them so we can find all these Ponzi-type schemes,” Mr. Guo said.

“要積極舉報，讓龐氏騙局無所遁形。”郭樹清說。

China’s financial policymakers have made clear that they do not mind seeing a few defaults and some strains in the system. Retail auto sales slackened last month, and unsold cars have started accumulating at dealerships. A decision by the authorities to allow at least a dozen bond defaults in recent weeks, after years of preventing them, has rattled some investors.

中國的財政政策制定者已明確表示，他們不介意看到系統(tǒng)中有少量違約和一些壓力。上個月，汽車零售的銷量放緩，未售出的汽車在經(jīng)銷商處堆積。在最近幾周，對此防范多年的當(dāng)局允許了十余起債券違約，這讓一些投資者感到不安。

The Chinese economy is not crashing. By international standards, the pace of bond defaults is still negligible. While car sales have leveled off, they have done so at a very high level after two decades of strong growth, causing chronic traffic jams. Real estate demand is still buoyant, and so is the construction industry.

中國的經(jīng)濟并未崩潰。按照國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，債券違約的速度仍然微不足道。雖然汽車銷量已趨于平穩(wěn)，但這是在20年的高水平強勁增長造成了長期的交通擁堵之后。房地產(chǎn)需求依然蓬勃，建筑業(yè)也是如此。

But faced with a high level of debt across the economy, “what regulators need to be careful is not to respond in such a heavy-handed way that it could essentially compound the risks,” said Fred Hu, an influential Chinese economist who is now a hedge fund chairman in Hong Kong.

但面對整個經(jīng)濟的高負(fù)債水平，中國有影響力的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家、現(xiàn)任香港某對沖基金主席的胡祖六表示，“監(jiān)管機構(gòu)需要注意的是不要以如此強硬的方式作出回應(yīng)，這實際上可能會加劇風(fēng)險”。