特朗普有關朝鮮無核化的斷言符合事實嗎？

SEOUL, South Korea — President Trump said on Thursday that North Korea had already begun to denuclearize, as he continued to trumpet the results of his summit meeting last week with the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

韓國首爾——特朗普總統(tǒng)上周四表示，朝鮮已經開始去核，他是在繼續(xù)宣揚兩周前與朝鮮領導人金正恩舉行的峰會的結果。

At the June 12 meeting in Singapore, Mr. Kim agreed to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” But the joint statement the two leaders signed lacked details about when North Korea would dismantle its nuclear program and under what terms, or even what specifically was meant by “denuclearization.”

金正恩在6月12日的新加坡峰會上同意“努力實現(xiàn)朝鮮半島的全面無核化”。但兩國領導人簽署的聯(lián)合聲明缺乏細節(jié)，沒有關于朝鮮逐步廢除其核項目的時間表、以及在什么條件下才會廢除，甚至沒有“去核化”的具體含義。

Since then, Mr. Trump has made bold claims about what was achieved in Singapore, asserting that there is “no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea” and that the nuclear crisis is now “largely solved.” Such statements have led to accusations that he is misleading the public. (The North, for instance, has just as many nuclear weapons as it did before the summit talks.)

從那以后，特朗普一直在對新加坡峰會取得的結果做出大膽的斷言，他聲稱“朝鮮不再構成核威脅”，核危機現(xiàn)在“基本上已經解決”。這些聲稱引來了人們指責他誤導公眾的說法。(比如，朝鮮現(xiàn)在擁有的核武器數量與峰會前擁有的一樣多。)

Here are a few of the assertions Mr. Trump made during a cabinet meeting on Thursday, and a look at how they compare with the facts:

下面是特朗普在周四的一次內閣會議上的一些聲稱，以及他的說法與事實的比較：

‘They’ve stopped the sending of missiles, including ballistic missiles’

“他們已經停止了導彈發(fā)射，包括彈道導彈發(fā)射。”

True.

符合事實。

Last November, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that officials said was powerful enough to reach the mainland United States, the latest in a series of missile tests that the North carried out last year. (It also tested a nuclear weapon in September.) Since then, it has not launched any missiles. Its suspension of both nuclear and missile tests eased the way for Mr. Kim’s meeting with South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, in late April and his talks with Mr. Trump.

去年11月，朝鮮發(fā)射了一枚洲際彈道導彈，官員們說，那枚導彈有足以飛到美國本土的強大能力，那是朝鮮去年進行的一系列導彈試驗中的最后一次。(朝鮮還在去年9月測試了一枚核武器。)自那時起，朝鮮就一直沒有發(fā)射過任何導彈。朝鮮暫停核試驗和導彈試驗的做法，為金正恩在4月底與韓國總統(tǒng)文在寅的會晤、以及金正恩與特朗普的會談鋪平了道路。

In April, North Korea said it no longer needed to test nuclear weapons or intercontinental ballistic missiles because it had finished building its nuclear deterrent. But some Western analysts doubt that the North has truly mastered all the technologies needed to deliver warheads that can survive re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere and hit targets across the Pacific.

朝鮮在今年4月表示，不再需要測試核武器或洲際彈道導彈，因為朝鮮已經完成了核威懾力量的建設。但一些西方分析人士不相信朝鮮真正掌握了運送彈頭所需的全部技術，比如在彈頭重返地球大氣層時不被燒毀、從而能打擊太平洋彼岸目標的技術。

‘They’re destroying their engine site. They’re blowing it up.’

“他們正在搗毀他們的發(fā)動機場地。他們正在將其炸掉。”

Premature.

為時尚早。

Speaking to reporters in Singapore after the summit meeting, Mr. Trump said North Korea had promised to dismantle a facility for testing missile engines. North Korea has yet to confirm that Mr. Kim made such a promise, nor has it announced any plans to destroy such a facility.

峰會后，特朗普在新加坡對記者說，朝鮮已承諾拆除一個用于測試導彈發(fā)動機的設施。朝鮮方面尚未證實金正恩做出了這種承諾，也沒有宣布任何搗毀此類設施的計劃。

Mr. Trump did not say what site he was referring to. Analysts have focused on a facility at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang-ri, in northwestern North Korea. In March of last year, North Korea successfully tested a new high-thrust engine there, one that analysts said was later used to power its intercontinental ballistic missiles.

特朗普沒有說明他指的是哪個場地。分析人士一直關注的是位于朝鮮西北部東昌里的西海衛(wèi)星發(fā)射場的一個設施。去年3月，朝鮮在那里成功地測試了一臺新的高推力發(fā)動機。分析人士說，這臺發(fā)動機后來被用于為朝鮮的洲際彈道導彈提供動力。

Satellite imagery from June 12, the day of the summit meeting, revealed no signs that preparations were underway to dismantle the engine test stand at Tongchang-ri, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., an expert on the North’s missile programs, said in an analysis posted on the website 38 North.

從6月12日峰會當天拍攝的衛(wèi)星圖像來看，沒有跡象顯示朝鮮正在為拆除東昌里的發(fā)動機試驗臺做準備，研究朝鮮導彈計劃的專家小約瑟夫·S·貝穆德斯(Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.)在北緯38度(38 North)網站上發(fā)布的一份分析報告中說。

Destroying an engine-testing site would not necessarily mean that North Korea was abandoning its intercontinental ballistic missile program. But it would be taken as a confidence-building step by Washington and its allies as they enter negotiations with North Korea over implementing the summit agreement.

搗毀一個發(fā)動機測試基地并不一定意味著朝鮮在放棄其洲際彈道導彈項目。但那在華盛頓及其盟友就落實峰會協(xié)議與朝鮮進行談判的時候，會被視為建立信任的一步。

“While there are other vertical engine test stands in North Korea, the one at Sohae is the most well developed and its destruction would represent a significant symbolic and practical step forward for North Korea,” Mr. Bermudez wrote.

“雖然朝鮮也有其他的垂直發(fā)動機測試臺，但西海的這個最先進，西海測試臺的摧毀將會是朝鮮邁出的具有象征意義的、切實的一步，”貝穆德斯寫道。

‘They’ve already blown up one of their big test sites. In fact, it was actually four of their big test sites.

“他們已經炸毀了他們大型試驗場地中的一個。實際上，他們炸毀了四個大型試驗場地。”

Exaggerated.

有所夸張。

There is no evidence that the North Koreans have blown up “four of their big test sites,” whether nuclear or missile-related.

沒有證據表明，朝鮮炸毀了“四個大型試驗場地”，無論是用于核試驗的還是與導彈有關的。

But in May, with the international news media watching, the North did detonate explosives at the site where it conducted all six of its nuclear tests to date, characterizing it as a dismantling of the facility. Three tunnels were demolished at the site in Punggye-ri, in northeastern North Korea, which is the North’s only known nuclear test site.

但今年5月，在國際新聞媒體到場的情況下，朝鮮在其進行了迄今為止所有六次核試驗的地方引爆了炸藥，并稱拆除了那里的核設施。爆炸摧毀了位于朝鮮東北部豐溪里的三個隧道，豐溪里是朝鮮唯一被外界所知的核試驗基地。

However, no experts from the United Nations or any other independent body were present to verify whether the site had been completely destroyed, or whether it could be repaired should North Korea decide to resume testing.

但是，沒有來自聯(lián)合國或任何其他獨立機構的專家到場，以對該基地是否已被徹底摧毀進行核實，或對如果朝鮮決定恢復核試驗，該基地是否能被修復進行核實。

Reports also emerged early this month that the North had razed a stand that it used to test launching technologies for solid-fuel ballistic missiles. But there are no signs that North Korea has destroyed any other nuclear or missile test facilities.

本月初，有報道稱，朝鮮拆除了一個用于測試固體燃料彈道導彈發(fā)射技術的發(fā)射臺。但是，沒有跡象表明朝鮮已摧毀了任何其他的核試驗或導彈試驗設施。

‘It will be a total denuclearization, which is already starting taking place’

“這將是一個全面的去核化，這一進程已經開始了。”

Dubious.

值得懷疑。

If the steps described above are considered part of the denuclearization process, then it can indeed be said to have begun — though all of them took place before the Singapore talks.

如果上面描述的步驟被認為是無核化進程的一部分的話，可以說進程已經開始——不過，所有這些步驟都發(fā)生在新加坡峰會之前。

But many analysts say that North Korea cannot be said to have started denuclearizing until it begins actually dismantling its nuclear weapons, which has not happened. Nor has the North started disposing of its fissile materials or the facilities, such as centrifuges and a nuclear reactor, that have been used to produce them. And it has said nothing about when, or whether, it will dismantle the missiles that it says can deliver nuclear warheads.

但是，許多分析人士說，不能說朝鮮已經開始了去核化進程，除非朝鮮開始了銷毀自己核武器的實際行動，而這還沒有發(fā)生。朝鮮也沒有開始銷毀自己的可裂變材料或用于生產這些材料的離心機和核反應堆等設施。朝鮮也沒有說，什么時候、或是否會拆除其稱之為能夠運載核彈頭的導彈。

For his part, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters on Wednesday that he knew of no steps that North Korea had taken toward denuclearization. “I’m not aware of any,” he said. “Obviously, we’re at the very front end of the process. Detailed negotiations have not begun.”

美國國防部長吉姆·馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)周三對記者說，就他而言，他還沒有看到朝鮮在實現(xiàn)無核化上采取了任何步驟。“我對此一無所知，”他說。“顯然，我們仍正處在這個過程的最前期。具體的談判尚未開始。”

‘They’ve already sent back, or are in the process of sending back, the remains of our great heroes who died in North Korea during the war’

“他們已經把我們在朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭中死去的偉大英雄的遺骸送回來、或正在送回的過程中。”

Premature.

為時尚早。

Between 1996 and 2005, American experts and North Korean workers recovered remains believed to be those of more than 220 American soldiers who were killed during the Korean War, which raged from 1950 to 1953. No remains of American war dead have been sent home from North Korea since then.

1996至2005年間，美國專家和朝鮮工人找到的據認是在1950至1953年的朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭期間喪生的220多名美國士兵的遺骸。從那以后，就再也沒有過把美國戰(zhàn)爭死者的遺骸從朝鮮運回美國的事情。

Mr. Kim promised at the Singapore summit to do more, committing the North to returning more American remains from major battle sites, “including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.” Given that commitment — one that would cost Pyongyang little to honor — the North may well return more soldiers’ remains soon, but as of Friday it had not done so.

金正恩在新加坡峰會上承諾，將在這方面采取更多的行動，他承諾朝鮮將把在主要戰(zhàn)場上找到的更多的美國人遺骸運回國，“包括把已經得到的已確認的遺骸馬上運回美國。”考慮到這一承諾幾乎不需要朝鮮付出任何代價，朝鮮本可能很快會把更多士兵的遺骸還給美國，但截至周五，朝鮮還沒有這么做。

About 5,300 American troops presumed to have been killed in North Korea are still unaccounted for. Even if the North fully cooperates, recovering most of them is likely to take years. Once the remains are gathered, painstaking forensic work must be carried out before they can be positively identified. In the past, some soldiers’ remains sent to the United States from the North were mingled with the bones of unidentified people or even animals.

有約5300名據信是在朝鮮喪生的美國士兵仍下落不明。即使朝鮮完全與美國合作，找到其中的大部分可能需要數年的時間。把這些遺骸收集起來以后，仍需進行細心的法醫(yī)工作才能確定它們的身份。過去曾發(fā)生過從朝鮮運回美國的一些士兵遺骸與不明身份者的、甚至與動物的骨頭混雜在一起的情況。