中國(guó)對(duì)美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中的軟肋：大豆

XIAOWUSILI, China — For all its economic might, China hasn’t been able to solve a crucial problem.

中國(guó)小烏斯力——中國(guó)雖有經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，一個(gè)關(guān)鍵性的問(wèn)題卻尚未解決。

Soybeans. It just can’t grow enough of them.

這個(gè)問(wèn)題就是大豆。中國(guó)無(wú)法種出足夠的大豆。

That could blunt the impact of one of the biggest weapons the country wields in a trade fight with the United States.

這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致它在與美國(guó)的貿(mào)易斗爭(zhēng)中所使用的主要武器的威力受到制約。

Beijing placed a 25 percent tariff on American soybeans last week in retaliation for the Trump administration’s levies on Chinese-made goods. Last year, soy growers in the United States sold nearly one-third of their harvest to China. In dollar terms, only airplanes are a more significant American export to China, the world’s second-largest economy.

上周，為了報(bào)復(fù)特朗普政府對(duì)中國(guó)制造的商品征收關(guān)稅，北京決定對(duì)美國(guó)大豆征收25%的關(guān)稅。去年，美國(guó)的大豆種植者把近三分之一的收成賣(mài)給了中國(guó)。以美元計(jì)算，在美國(guó)向中國(guó)這個(gè)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體出口的產(chǎn)品中，只有飛機(jī)超過(guò)了它。

Still, soy-producing states like Iowa and Illinois might not feel the tariffs’ impact right away. China buys so much soy from the United States — $14 billion last year — that it can hardly switch to new suppliers overnight. Foreign-grown soybeans are a key source both of low-cost protein for feeding livestock and of cooking oil for Chinese kitchens.

不過(guò)，像艾奧瓦和伊利諾伊這樣的大豆出產(chǎn)州，恐怕并不會(huì)立刻就感受到關(guān)稅的沖擊。中國(guó)從美國(guó)購(gòu)買(mǎi)的大豆去年達(dá)到了140億美元，如此大的數(shù)量使其很難在一夜之間就轉(zhuǎn)向新的供應(yīng)商。外國(guó)種植的大豆是牲畜飼料中的低成本蛋白質(zhì)以及中國(guó)人廚房里的食用油的主要來(lái)源。

China is pressing its own farmers to grow more. But the math is daunting, and the obstacles are formidable.

中國(guó)正在敦促本國(guó)農(nóng)民增加大豆的種植面積。但從數(shù)字上看形勢(shì)令人氣餒，并且面臨巨大的困難。

Just ask Cao Xiumin. For the past 16 years, she has been growing corn and soybeans on a couple of acres near Xiaowusili, a village of about 600 people on China’s northeastern rim.

問(wèn)問(wèn)曹秀敏就知道了。在過(guò)去的16年時(shí)間里，她一直在小烏斯力附近的幾英畝土地上種植玉米和大豆，這是中國(guó)東北邊陲一個(gè)生活著大約600人的村子。

Over all, she is not producing much more today than she was a decade ago. Her fields are small and not irrigated. The new, supposedly higher-yielding seeds promoted by the government are not much better than the older varieties, she says.

總體來(lái)說(shuō)，她今天的產(chǎn)量并沒(méi)有比十年前高出太多。她的地不大，也沒(méi)有進(jìn)行灌溉。她說(shuō)，政府推廣的所謂高產(chǎn)新種子沒(méi)有比過(guò)去的那些品種高出多少。

“There isn’t any difference at all,” Ms. Cao said on a sweltering afternoon last week.

“沒(méi)啥太大變化，”曹秀敏在上周一個(gè)悶熱的下午說(shuō)道。

Farm goods could be a big weakness for China should the trade conflict with the United States turn into an all-out brawl.

如果與美國(guó)的貿(mào)易沖突全面爆發(fā)，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品可能會(huì)成為中國(guó)的一大弱點(diǎn)。

China’s increasingly wealthy people want more and better food on their plates. But the country’s farms are generally too small and underdeveloped to keep up.

越來(lái)越富裕的中國(guó)人希望盤(pán)子上有更多更好的食物。但這個(gè)國(guó)家的農(nóng)場(chǎng)總體上規(guī)模太小，發(fā)展無(wú)法滿足需求的增長(zhǎng)。

Nearly 90 percent of the soybeans China consumed last year came from overseas — more than 100 million tons in total. (Mexico, the world’s No. 2 importer, bought just five million tons.)

中國(guó)去年消費(fèi)的大豆中，近九成來(lái)自海外，總計(jì)超過(guò)一億噸(墨西哥作為全球第二大進(jìn)口國(guó)，僅購(gòu)買(mǎi)了500萬(wàn)噸)。

Replacing even a chunk of those with homegrown beans may prove as herculean a task for China as weaning itself from American microchips.

即便是用國(guó)產(chǎn)大豆取代進(jìn)口，對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)可能也是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)，就像它擺脫對(duì)美國(guó)微芯片的依賴一樣。

This spring, after the Chinese government first proposed retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, it got busy trying to dampen the potential blow to 1.4 billion stomachs.

今年春天首次提出對(duì)美國(guó)大豆征收?qǐng)?bào)復(fù)性關(guān)稅后，中國(guó)政府開(kāi)始忙著降低此舉對(duì)14億中國(guó)人的胃可能帶來(lái)的打擊。

To increase the availability of other types of animal feed, China’s customs authority removed inspection requirements on a variety of agricultural byproducts, including peanut meal, cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal.

為了增加其他類型的動(dòng)物飼料供應(yīng)，中國(guó)海關(guān)取消了對(duì)各種農(nóng)副產(chǎn)品的檢驗(yàn)要求，包括花生粕、棉籽粕和菜籽粕。

Farmers here in Heilongjiang, China’s top soybean-producing province, also caught wind of an order from the authorities: Grow more soybeans. Immediately.

中國(guó)最大的大豆種植省份黑龍江的農(nóng)民們也接到了政府的命令：種更多的大豆。馬上就種。

As an incentive, the provincial government offered generous subsidies to farmers both for growing soybeans and for switching their fields to soy from corn.

作為激勵(lì)，省政府向農(nóng)民提供了慷慨的大豆補(bǔ)貼和玉米改種大豆輪作補(bǔ)貼。

Word of the new subsidies spread quickly on the social media app WeChat. And soon, many farmers were returning corn seeds and fertilizer they had already bought and planting soy instead.

新補(bǔ)貼的消息在社交媒體應(yīng)用微信上迅速傳開(kāi)。很快，許多農(nóng)民就把已經(jīng)購(gòu)買(mǎi)的玉米種子和化肥退了回去，改種大豆。

With all the government support, Guo Qiang, a 35-year-old farmer in the village of Dawusili, said that he would love to grow only soybeans, and no corn, on his family’s 50 acres. But his farm cooperative requires that members rotate their crops to keep the soil healthy.

大烏斯力村一名35歲的農(nóng)民郭強(qiáng)說(shuō)，有了政府的支持，他很愿意在家里50英畝的田里只種大豆，不種玉米。但他的合作農(nóng)場(chǎng)要求成員輪種作物，以保證土地的肥沃。

“If it weren’t for these policies, I would obviously grow more soybeans,” Mr. Guo said. “Especially with these big things happening between China and America — this trade war and whatever — I think the prospects are much better for soy than for corn.”

“如果沒(méi)有這個(gè)輪作政策，我必然要種大豆，”郭強(qiáng)說(shuō)。“尤其是中國(guó)跟美國(guó)國(guó)際大形式來(lái)講，這個(gè)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)又啥的，我覺(jué)得大豆的前景還是比玉米要強(qiáng)得多。”

Even so, China would need to dedicate a huge fraction of the entire nation’s farmland — between a quarter and a third, by various estimates — to soy if it wanted to be self-sufficient.

即便如此，如果想自給自足，中國(guó)還需要將全國(guó)農(nóng)用地的一大部分——依照不同統(tǒng)計(jì)，在四分之一至三分之一之間——用作種植大豆。

American farmers could still take a sizable hit in the long run if China’s tariffs prompt Brazil and other suppliers to expand their soy acreage, or if China bankrolls cultivation outside its borders. Many people from Heilongjiang are already growing soybeans across the Amur River in the Russian Far East, where land is cheap and plentiful.

長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，如果中國(guó)的關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致巴西及其他供應(yīng)國(guó)擴(kuò)大大豆種植面積，或是如果中國(guó)為在其邊境外種植提供資金，美國(guó)農(nóng)民仍然會(huì)遭受相當(dāng)大的打擊。黑龍江許多人已經(jīng)在黑龍江對(duì)岸的俄羅斯遠(yuǎn)東種植大豆，那里的土地充足，價(jià)格也便宜。

In 1969, fighting erupted between Soviet and Chinese troops along this border. But these days, relations are good and trade is brisk. In the border city of Heihe (pronounced “HEY-huh”), many street signs are written in both Chinese and Russian. In Xiaowusili (“SHYEEOW-oo-suh-lee”), the parks have trash cans painted to look like giant matryoshka nesting dolls.

1969年，蘇聯(lián)與中國(guó)軍隊(duì)曾在兩國(guó)邊境交火。但現(xiàn)如今，中俄兩國(guó)關(guān)系良好，貿(mào)易往來(lái)繁忙。在邊境城市黑河，許多街頭的指示牌都是以中文和俄文標(biāo)識(shí)的。在小烏斯力，公園有著被涂得像俄羅斯套娃一般的垃圾桶。

China’s hunger for soybeans could deepen ties further. In a recent interview with the Chinese state news agency Xinhua, the head of a Russian soybean association said that the group was looking to team up with Chinese companies, and had set up an office in Heilongjiang’s provincial capital, Harbin, to attract investment.

中國(guó)對(duì)大豆的需求可能會(huì)讓該國(guó)與俄羅斯的關(guān)系更為密切。在近期接受中國(guó)官方新聞社新華社的采訪時(shí)，俄羅斯一家大豆協(xié)會(huì)的會(huì)長(zhǎng)表示，該組織正希望與中國(guó)公司展開(kāi)合作，并且已經(jīng)在黑龍江省會(huì)哈爾濱設(shè)立了辦公室，以吸引投資。

To reduce its dependence on American soy, Beijing could also try to squeeze more beans out of each acre at home. But farmers in Heilongjiang acknowledge they are a long way from being as productive as farmers in the United States, where agriculture is more mechanized and genetic modification is embraced.

為了減少對(duì)美國(guó)大豆的依賴，北京還可以試圖提高國(guó)內(nèi)每英畝土地的大豆產(chǎn)量。但黑龍江的農(nóng)民承認(rèn)，要達(dá)到與美國(guó)農(nóng)民一樣的產(chǎn)量，他們還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。美國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)較為機(jī)械化，并且人們也接納轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆。

China allows imports of genetically engineered crops, but Heilongjiang forbids farmers to grow them. Many people here harbor deep doubts about such products’ safety, both for people and for the land.

中國(guó)允許進(jìn)口轉(zhuǎn)基因作物，但黑龍江禁止農(nóng)民種植它們。許多人對(duì)這類產(chǎn)品對(duì)人和土地的安全性存在很深的懷疑。

“I wouldn’t grow them even if the government allowed it,” said Gai Yongfeng, the head of the Jiaxing farm cooperative in Dawusili. “They’re bad for the soil. After you’ve grown them somewhere, nothing else will grow there. That’s what everyone says.”

“我是不可能種，國(guó)家政策允許的話，”大烏斯力嘉興合作社的負(fù)責(zé)人蓋永峰說(shuō)。“對(duì)土壤不好。以后種了別的不長(zhǎng)了，大家都這么說(shuō)。”

Around Heihe, some growers are trying to modernize in other ways.

在黑河附近，一些種植戶正在試圖用其他方式實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化。

Hou Wenlin started the Linfeng Modern Agricultural Specialty Cooperative in 2014. He does not believe that China will be able to replace soy imports entirely.

侯文林在2014年開(kāi)辦了林豐現(xiàn)代農(nóng)機(jī)專業(yè)合作社。他不相信中國(guó)能完全替換進(jìn)口大豆。

“There’s no point,” Mr. Hou said. “It just can’t be done.”

“沒(méi)有啥太大意義，”侯文林說(shuō)。“不可能的事。”

He does, however, believe that China can grow soybeans more scientifically. In one of his cooperative’s fields, the soy grows in neat rows that are spaced farther apart to keep the plants at the right temperature and moisture. Each season, he plants a number of different types of seeds to understand how each performs. He has two drones for spraying pesticide.

然而，他確實(shí)認(rèn)為中國(guó)能更科學(xué)地種植大豆。在他的合作社的一塊田中，大豆一排排種得很整齊，每一排之間的間隔都很大，以保證作物能有適宜的溫度和濕度。每一季，他都會(huì)播種下不同的種子，來(lái)了解每種的表現(xiàn)如何。他有兩架?chē)姙⑾x(chóng)劑的無(wú)人機(jī)。

Modern farming is expensive, however. And in Mr. Hou’s case, it involves a secret weapon: American technology.

但是，現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)是很昂貴的。在侯文林這里，則涉及一個(gè)秘密武器：美國(guó)技術(shù)。

In front of the cooperative’s office is a yard full of bright-green John Deere farm machines, which Mr. Hou buys with the help of government subsidies. Chinese machinery is cheaper but more prone to breakdowns, he says.

在合作社辦公室的前面，是一個(gè)放滿了翠綠色強(qiáng)鹿(John Deere)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械的院子，侯文林是在政府補(bǔ)貼的幫助下買(mǎi)下它們的。他說(shuō)，中國(guó)機(jī)械較為便宜，但卻容易出故障。

Even some of the fertilizer Mr. Hou uses comes from the United States.

就連侯文林用的肥料也來(lái)自于美國(guó)。

The Chinese equivalents are better now than they used to be. Earlier, though, there was something that was commonly said, according to Mr. Hou, among farmers around here who knew the chemical name of one of the most widely used plant foods:

中國(guó)的肥料如今比以前要好多了。但在過(guò)去，這里像侯文林這樣的農(nóng)民有一句俗話，用來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)一種被廣泛用于種植的化學(xué)品：

“We rely first on the heavens,” the saying went. “We rely second on American diammonium phosphate.”

“一靠老天，”這句話說(shuō)。“二靠美國(guó)老二胺(磷酸二胺)”。