一年多以來,中國政府一直將一種進化迅速的禽流感病毒樣本扣下,不交給美國——據(jù)聯(lián)邦衛(wèi)生官員表示,美國需要該樣本來研發(fā)疫苗和治療方法。
Despite persistent requests from government officials and research institutions, China has not provided samples of the dangerous virus, a type of bird flu called H7N9. In the past, such exchanges have been mostly routine under rules established by the World Health Organization.
盡管政府官員和研究機構不斷提出要求,但中國一直沒有提供這種名為H7N9的禽流感危險病毒樣本。在過去,這樣的交流一直都按照世界衛(wèi)生組織的規(guī)定定期進行。
Now, as the United States and China spar over trade, some scientists worry that the vital exchange of medical supplies and information could slow, hampering preparedness for the next biological threat.
如今,隨著美中兩國就貿易爭端不斷,一些科學家擔憂此類重要的醫(yī)療用品及信息交流可能放慢,阻礙對下一次生物威脅的準備。
The scenario is “unlike shortages in aluminum and soybeans,” said Dr. Michael Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard Medical School.
這種情況“不同于鋁和大豆短缺”,哈佛醫(yī)學院傳染病專家邁克爾·卡拉漢(Michael Callahan)博士表示。
“Jeopardizing U.S. access to foreign pathogens and therapies to counter them undermines our nation’s ability to protect against infections which can spread globally within days.”
“妨礙美國獲得外國病原體,研究出對抗病毒的治療方法,會破壞我國保護自己不受那些能在數(shù)天內迅速傳播全球的感染的能力。”
Experts concur that the world’s next global pandemic will likely come from a repeat offender: the flu. The H7N9 virus is one candidate.
專家一致認為,世界上下一次全球流行性疾病很可能會源自一個“慣犯”:流感。H7N9病毒是可能性之一。
Since taking root in China in 2013, the virus has spread through poultry farms, evolving into a highly pathogenic strain that can infect humans. It has killed 40 percent of its victims.
自2013年在中國扎根后,這種病毒通過家禽飼養(yǎng)場進行傳播,進化成了一種高度致病菌株,能傳染人類。這種病毒已經導致40%被感染者死亡。
If this strain were to become highly contagious among humans, seasonal flu vaccines would provide little to no protection. Americans have virtually no immunity.
如果這種菌株在人群中變得高度易傳染,季節(jié)性流感疫苗將提供不了多少保護作用。美國人基本上對此毫無免疫力。
“Pandemic influenza spreads faster than anything else,” said Rick A. Bright, the director of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services that oversees vaccine development. “There’s nothing to hold it back or slow it down. Every minute counts.”
“大流行性流感比其他任何疾病傳播得都要快,”美國衛(wèi)生與公眾服務部(Department of Health and Human Services)下屬機構、監(jiān)管疫苗研發(fā)的生物醫(yī)學高級研究和發(fā)展局(Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority)局長里克·A·布萊特(Rick A. Bright)說。“不存在要阻止或放慢進度的理由。每一分鐘都很重要。”
Under an agreement established by the World Health Organization, participating countries must transfer influenza samples with pandemic potential to designated research centers “in a timely manner.”
根據(jù)世界衛(wèi)生組織的一項協(xié)議,成員國必須“及時”將存在流行病可能的流感樣本轉移至指定研究中心。
That process — involving paperwork, approval through several agencies and a licensed carrier — normally takes several months, according to Dr. Larry Kerr, the director of pandemics and emerging threats at the Department of Health and Human Services.
根據(jù)拉里·科爾(Larry Kerr)博士說,這一過程——牽涉文件、通過多個機構的批準以及一個持有執(zhí)照的運送方——通常需要幾個月??茽柌┦渴切l(wèi)生與公眾服務部流行病及新興威脅主任。
But more than one year after a devastating wave of H7N9 infections in Asia — 766 cases were reported, almost all in China — the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is still waiting for several viral samples, the National Security Council and the W.H.O. confirmed.
但在亞洲出現(xiàn)一波致命H7N9感染一年多的時間里——上報766例,幾乎都是在中國——美國疾病控制和預防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)仍在等待多份病毒樣本,此事得到了國家安全委員會(National Security Council)和世衛(wèi)組織的確認。
Scientists at the Department of Agriculture have had such difficulty obtaining flu samples from China that they have stopped requesting them altogether, according to a government official who spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.
據(jù)一名政府官員表示,農業(yè)部科學家在從中國獲取流感樣本時也遇到過此類困難,因此他們不再要求中國提供了。由于沒有獲得討論此事的授權,這名官員要求匿名。
At least four research institutions have relied upon a small group of H7N9 samples from cases in Taiwan and Hong Kong. (All four asked not to be identified for fear of further straining ties.)
至少有四家研究機構依賴臺灣和香港的一小批H7N9樣本。(由于擔心關系進一步緊張,這四個機構都要求不透露名字。)
The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention also did not reply to inquiries regarding the transfer.
中國駐華盛頓大使館沒有回復多次置評請求。中國疾病預防控制中心也沒有回復有關轉移的詢問。
When the H7N9 virus first appeared in China, researchers say the Chinese government at first provided timely information. But communication has gradually worsened.
當H7N9病毒首次出現(xiàn)在中國時,研究人員說,中國政府起初提供了及時的信息。但溝通逐漸惡化。
Yet a sudden spike in infections during the 2016-2017 outbreak wave demands intense research, said scientists aiming to understand the virus’ evolution.
然而,2016-2017年病毒爆發(fā)期間,感染突然激增,關注該病毒進化的科學家稱,這需要進行密集研究。
Recent trade tensions could worsen the problem.
最近的貿易緊張局勢可能會令這一問題惡化。
The Office of the United States Trade Representative in April released a proposed list of products to be targeted for tariffs — including pharmaceutical products such as vaccines, medicines and medical devices.
美國貿易代表辦公室于4月發(fā)布了一份擬議的關稅產品清單,其中包括疫苗、藥品和醫(yī)療器械等醫(yī)藥產品。
So far, none of those medical products have landed on the final tariff lists. But lower-level trade negotiations with China concluded on Thursday with few signs of progress, increasing the likelihood of additional tariffs.
到目前為止,這些醫(yī)療產品沒有進入最終的關稅清單。但與中國的低級別貿易于談判周四結束,幾乎沒有進展的跡象,這增加了額外關稅的可能性。
The United States relies on China not only for H7N9 influenza samples but for medical supplies, such as plastic drip mechanisms for intravenous saline, as well as ingredients for certain oncology and anesthesia drugs. Some of these are delivered through a just-in-time production model; there are no stockpiles, which could prove dangerous if the supply was disrupted, health officials said.
美國不僅依賴中國的H7N9流感樣本,還依賴中國的醫(yī)療用品,如靜脈注射生理鹽水的塑料滴注裝置,以及某些腫瘤和麻醉藥物的成分。其中一些是通過即時制生產模式提供的;衛(wèi)生官員說,在沒有庫存儲備的情況下,如果供應中斷,可能造成危險。
Scientists believe top commerce officials in both governments view the viral samples much like any other laboratory product, and may be unfamiliar with their vital role in global security.
科學家認為,兩國政府的頂級商務官員都把病毒樣本看得和其他實驗室產品一樣,而且可能不熟悉它們在全球安全中的重要作用。
“Countries don’t own their viral samples any more than they own the birds in their skies,” said Andrew C. Weber, who oversaw biological defense programs at the Pentagon during the Obama administration.
“病毒樣本不歸各國所擁有,就像空中的鳥類不歸各國所有一樣,”奧巴馬政府期間負責監(jiān)督五角大樓生物防御項目的安德魯·C·韋伯(Andrew C. Weber)說。
“Given that this flu virus is a potential threat to humanity, not sharing it immediately with the global network of W.H.O. laboratories like C.D.C. is scandalous. Many could die needlessly if China denies international access to samples.”
“鑒于這種流感病毒是對人類的潛在威脅,不立即將它們與世界衛(wèi)生組織全球實驗室網(wǎng)絡分享,比如C.D.C.,是可恥的。如果中國拒絕國際上獲取這些樣品,許多人可能會不必要地死去。”
For over a decade, epidemiological data and samples have been used as trade war pawns.
十多年來,流行病學數(shù)據(jù)和樣本已被用作貿易戰(zhàn)中的武器。
China hid the 2002 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, for four months and then kept the findings of its research private. Some provinces withheld information about cases even from the central government in Beijing.
2002年,中國將其嚴重急性呼吸系統(tǒng)綜合征(SARS)的爆發(fā)隱藏了四個月,然后將研究結果保密。一些省份甚至對北京中央政府隱瞞相關病例的信息。
In 2005, Chinese authorities insisted an H5N1 influenza outbreak was contained, contradicting University of Hong Kong scientists who offered evidence that it was expanding. Those authorities hesitated to share viral samples from infected wild birds with the international community, concealing the scope to avoid a hit to their vast poultry industry.
2005年,中國當局堅稱H5N1流感疫情已經得到了控制,這與香港大學科學家的結論相矛盾,后者提供的證據(jù)表明它正在擴大。中國官方對同國際社會分享感染野生鳥類病毒樣本猶豫不決,隱瞞病毒傳播范圍,以避免對其龐大的家禽業(yè)造成打擊。
Indonesia followed suit, refusing in 2007 to share specimens of H5N1 with the United States and United Kingdom, arguing that the countries would use the samples to develop a vaccine that Indonesians could not afford.
印度尼西亞也效仿中國,于2007年拒絕與美國和英國分享H5N1樣本,并聲稱這些國家將使用這些樣本來開發(fā)一種印尼人無法負擔的疫苗。
Those episodes led to the 2011 development of the W.H.O.’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, which aims to promote sample exchanges as well as developing countries’ access to vaccines.
這些事件促成了2011年W.H.O.大流行性流感防范框架的發(fā)展,該框架旨在促進樣本交換,以及幫助發(fā)展中國家獲得疫苗。
But for countries like China, bearing the burden of a novel virus is paradoxical. Outbreaks are expensive — the wave of H7N9 infections in 2013 alone cost China more than $6 billion, according to the United Nations — but they can provide a head-start in developing valuable treatments.
但對于像中國這樣的國家來說,承擔新型病毒的負擔是矛盾的。流感爆發(fā)的代價很高——根據(jù)聯(lián)合國的數(shù)據(jù),僅2013年的H7N9感染就給中國造成了超過60億美元的損失——但它們可以為開發(fā)有價值的治療提供先機。
“In a sense, China has made lemonade from lemons — converting the problem of global infectious disease threats into lifesaving and valuable commodities,” Dr. Callahan said. “從某種意義上說,中國已經用檸檬做出了檸檬水——將全球傳染病威脅問題轉化為救命和有價值的商品,”卡拉漢說。
And now, as the H7N9 virus evolves, United States authorities worry that the Chinese have obfuscated the scale and features of this outbreak.
現(xiàn)在,隨著H7N9病毒的演變,美國當局擔心中國人并不清楚這次疫情的規(guī)模和特征。
The Chinese government has refused to share clinical data from infected patients, according to scientists, and claims to have all but eradicated H7N9 through a single poultry vaccination campaign.
據(jù)科學家稱,中國政府拒絕分享受感染患者的臨床數(shù)據(jù),并聲稱通過單一家禽疫苗接種活動幾乎完全消滅了H7N9。
“Influenza is going to do what it does best, which is mutate,” Dr. Kerr said.
“流感會做它最擅長的事情——變異,”克爾博士說。