中國三季度GDP增6.5%，創(chuàng)近10年來新低

Sputtering growth, soaring debt and an escalating trade war with the United States are increasingly weighing on China’s economy.

增長乏力、債務(wù)飆升，還有正在升級的中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，這些都在拖累中國的經(jīng)濟。

China’s government on Friday reported that the economy grew by 6.5 percent over the three months that ended in September compared with a year ago. While fast by global standards, the pace is China’s slowest since 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis.

中國政府周五公布第三季度經(jīng)濟同比僅增長6.5%。盡管以國際標準來看仍屬快速，但該數(shù)字是中國自2009年全球深陷金融危機以來最慢的增長。

China has reported growth figures over the past two years that painted a picture of an economy that is gamely chugging along, despite the country’s lingering problems and widespread doubts over the reliability of official numbers. A different narrative has emerged this year, one of a slowing economy that is forcing Beijing to make some difficult choices.

從過去兩年公布的增長數(shù)字看到的，是一個頑強穩(wěn)步前進的中國經(jīng)濟，盡管這個國家仍有未解決的問題，且外界對官方數(shù)字可信度普遍存有疑問。今年出現(xiàn)了另一種敘事，稱經(jīng)濟放緩正在迫使北京作出艱難抉擇。

Chinese shoppers are spending less and downgrading their purchases, like staying home instead of going out, or drinking beer instead of cocktails. Wages are stagnant. Investment in splashy infrastructure projects has dropped sharply.

中國購物者花錢變少了，并且在降低購買標準，例如待在家里不出去玩，或是喝啤酒而不是雞尾酒。工資水平出現(xiàn)停滯。對引人矚目的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項目的投資大幅下降。

China’s stock market is firmly in the red — it has fallen by 30 percent since a peak in January — making it one of the world’s worst performing. The currency has weakened and is hovering near a 10-year low against the American dollar. Companies are complaining that they cannot get money from lenders, and a handful are defaulting on their loans.

中國股市自一月達到巔峰以來已下跌30%，目前深陷熊市，為全球表現(xiàn)最差的市場之一。人民幣已經(jīng)走弱，兌美元匯率徘徊在近10年最低點。公司都在抱怨無法獲得貸款，還有一些公司出現(xiàn)債務(wù)違約的情況。

All of this is before factoring in China’s intensifying trade war with the United States. Friday’s report is the first since the two countries began to impose tit-for-tat tariffs starting in early July.

這些都是在中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)愈演愈烈前就發(fā)生的。周五的數(shù)字是兩國七月初開始針鋒相對地互征關(guān)稅后首次公布的數(shù)據(jù)。

So far it has only marginally dented China’s $12 trillion economy. Chinese officials point to figures that show overall trade remains robust despite the conflict. Still, the impact may take some months to show.

迄今為止，關(guān)稅只對中國12萬億美元的經(jīng)濟造成了輕微影響。中國官員指出，盡管有這場沖突，有數(shù)據(jù)顯示整體貿(mào)易仍十分強健。但貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的影響可能需要一些時日才能顯露出來。

On Friday, officials blamed “an extremely complicated and severe international situation” for the lower-than-expected growth figures but also sought to lift confidence with statements of support from the central bank and market regulators. 周五，官員們將低于預(yù)期的增長數(shù)據(jù)歸咎于“異常復(fù)雜嚴峻的國際形勢”，但也力圖用央行及市場監(jiān)管機構(gòu)的支持來提振信心。

In a wide-ranging interview with state media that was posted later midday, Liu He, China’s economic czar, said that trade frictions with the United States had cause “impact on the stock market, but the psychological effect is bigger than the actual impact, frankly speaking.”

中國官媒在午后發(fā)表了一份內(nèi)容廣泛的采訪，中國“經(jīng)濟沙皇”劉鶴表示，中美貿(mào)易摩擦“對市場也造成了影響，但坦率地說，心理影響大于實際影響。”

He added that the United States and China were in contact, without elaborating. Trade discussions were put on hold in September after the Chinese declined an invitation by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to hold fresh talks.

他補充說，中美兩國正在進行接觸，但沒有詳細說明。在中國拒絕了美國財政部長史蒂文·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)進行新談判的邀請后，兩國貿(mào)易談判于九月暫停。

These are some takeaways from the report.

報告中有一些要點。

For China, revving up the growth engine is complicated

對中國來說，加快增長引擎的運轉(zhuǎn)很復(fù)雜

During periods of economic slowdown, China has turned to local governments to spur growth through big infrastructure and development projects. That approach juiced growth but saddled key parts of the economy with debt.

經(jīng)濟放緩期間，中國曾轉(zhuǎn)向地方政府，通過大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)及開發(fā)項目刺激增長。這一舉措促進了經(jīng)濟增長，但卻讓中國經(jīng)濟的關(guān)鍵部分背上債務(wù)。

The exact numbers aren’t clear, but experts agree that the debt load is vast. In a report this week, S&P Global estimated that China’s local governments are carrying as much as $6 trillion in shadowy debt off the books. That’s equivalent to roughly three-fifths of China’s entire economic output. Analysts at the ratings firm called it “an alarming level.”

具體的數(shù)字尚不清楚，但專家一致認為，債務(wù)負擔(dān)十分龐大。在本周的一份報告中，標普全球(S&P Global)估算中國地方政府所負擔(dān)的不在賬面上的影子債務(wù)高達六萬億美元。這個數(shù)字相當(dāng)于中國整體經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)量約五分之三。該評級機構(gòu)的分析師稱其已經(jīng)達到了“值得警惕的水平”。

China has been trying to throttle back the lending, but that has hurt growth. Growth in spending on highways, rail and public facilities has fallen to a record low this year. From the start of the year through the end of August, the growth in infrastructure spending fell to 4.2 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

中國一直在努力控制借貸，但這種做法影響到了增長。高速公路、鐵路及公共設(shè)施方面的支出增長今年已降至歷史最低。根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自今年年初到八月底，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方面的支出增長與去年同期相比下降至4.2%。

Now, Beijing appears to be rethinking its austerity efforts. Officials are beginning to encourage new investment. To reduce the bill, they are asking the private sector to help out. This week it announced that 1,222 infrastructure projects worth $362 billion would be financed by private companies.

如今，北京似乎在對其財政緊縮措施作重新考慮。官員們開始鼓勵新投資。為了減少費用，他們要求私營部門出手相助。本周，中國宣布將有1222個價值3620億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目由私營企業(yè)提供資金。

The health of the Chinese consumer is critical 中國消費者的健康程度至關(guān)重要

China’s expanding middle class and its increasingly expensive consumption habits have been an important pillar for growth as China moves away from its dependence on exports and big investment projects.

隨著中國擺脫對出口及大型投資項目的依賴，中國不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階級及其愈發(fā)昂貴的消費習(xí)慣成為了經(jīng)濟增長的重要支柱。

Retail sales stayed buoyant as Chinese consumers continued to buy cars, appliances, smartphones and other goods. The strong numbers will help officials in Beijing to argue that the trade war has left China’s domestic economy largely untouched.

隨著中國消費者持續(xù)買入汽車、電器、智能手機及其他商品，零售業(yè)銷售保持上漲態(tài)勢。強勁的數(shù)字有助于北京的官員提出貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)沒對中國國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟造成什么影響的觀點。

But economists warn that the overall rosy picture could change. For example, car sales began to slow in September, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

但經(jīng)濟學(xué)家警告，這整個美好景象可能會發(fā)生改變。例如，根據(jù)全國汽車市場研究會的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，汽車銷售開始在九月放緩。

“A month from now may be just the time retailers start to buckle,” wrote analysts at China Beige Book International. The group, which surveys big businesses in China, said retailers reported the worst payroll health of any sector in recent months.

“從現(xiàn)在起的一個月后，可能就是零售商們感受到壓力的時候了，”中國褐皮書國際公司(China Beige Book International)一名分析師寫道。這家會對中國大型企業(yè)進行問卷調(diào)查的公司說，零售商們表示出現(xiàn)了近幾個月來所有經(jīng)濟部門中最糟糕的薪資情況。

Retail numbers could also fall as Beijing cracks down on non-bank lenders and peer-to-peer lending platforms, which have been a source of credit for many consumers in recent years. 隨著北京打壓非銀行貸款方及P2P放貸平臺，零售數(shù)據(jù)可能繼續(xù)下降。這些平臺是近年來許多消費者的信貸來源。

The trade war could prove a drag

事實證明，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能會是一個拖累

In September, the United States put tariffs on $200 billion worth of products coming from China. President Trump has given no indication that he will back down any time soon.

九月，美國對來自中國價值2000億美元的商品加征關(guān)稅。特朗普總統(tǒng)還沒有給出任何會在近期讓步的表示。

Chinese export figures for September jumped 14.5 percent compared with a year earlier. That unlikely number probably isn’t a sign that trade is doing well. Some exporters attributed the rise to American companies ramping up orders before new tariffs make their purchases more expensive.

中國九月的出口數(shù)據(jù)同比躍升至14.5%。這個不太可能的數(shù)字可能并非是貿(mào)易情況良好的跡象。一些出口商將數(shù)據(jù)增長的原因歸結(jié)于美國公司在新關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致采購變得更昂貴前，提升了下單量。

“We know customers tried to clear as much finished product in transit to the U.S. as possible before the deadline,” said Peter Levesque, the managing director of Modern Terminals in Hong Kong. That could happen again, as American importers try to bypass the next deadline of Jan. 1 for a 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

“我們知道在截止日期前，顧客盡可能多地讓運輸?shù)矫绹某善非尻P(guān)，”香港現(xiàn)代貨箱碼頭(Modern Terminals)總經(jīng)理李國維(Peter Levesque)表示。隨著美國進口商試圖繞過1月1日下一個對中國商品加征25%關(guān)稅的最后期限，這種情況可能會再次出現(xiàn)。

While much of the impact of the trade war has yet to be felt, experts say it won’t take long for a slowing economy to start to feel the pinch, especially as officials grapple with other economic problems. The trade war could shave as much as 1.6 percent off China’s economic growth figures next year, according to a recent report from the International Monetary Fund.

盡管人們還沒感受到貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的大部分影響，專家表示要不了多久，放緩的經(jīng)濟就會開始感到壓力，尤其是在官員們努力應(yīng)付其他經(jīng)濟問題的時候。根據(jù)近期一份來自國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的報告，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能會在明年減少中國經(jīng)濟增長多達1.6%。

“We’re not going to be able to see it in the numbers that are provided and that will just add to the uncertainty,” said Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. “It’s going to be hard to pinpoint any pressure because we don’t have enough data.”

“我們不會在中國提供的數(shù)據(jù)里看到這些，而這只會增加不確定性，”標準普爾的全球首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家保羅·格倫瓦爾德(Paul Gruenwald)表示。“因為我們沒有足夠的數(shù)據(jù)，要描述對經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成的壓力會很難。”

But, he added, “there is definitely pessimism. It’s just a question of how much it will slow things down.” 但他補充說，

“悲觀情緒肯定是存在的。問題只是它會讓經(jīng)濟放緩多少。”

Officials look to shore up confidence

官員們希望能提振信心

Just before releasing the economic growth figures on Friday morning, the websites for China’s central bank, insurance and securities regulators posted news media interviews with senior officials giving support to the market. The chairman of the securities regulator went as far as to appeal to certain market participants to buy stocks.

周五早間公布經(jīng)濟增長數(shù)據(jù)前，中國銀監(jiān)會、保監(jiān)會及證監(jiān)會的網(wǎng)站均發(fā)布了新聞媒體對高級官員的采訪，以對市場表示支持。證監(jiān)會主席甚至呼吁某些市場參與者購買股票。

“We encourage private equity funds to purchase shares of listed companies and participate in mergers and acquisitions of listed companies,” said Liu Shiyu, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

“我們鼓勵私募股權(quán)基金通過參與非公開發(fā)行、協(xié)議轉(zhuǎn)讓、大宗交易等方式，購買已上市公司股票，”證監(jiān)會主席劉士余表示。

Earlier this month, the People’s Bank of China pulled a financial lever that effectively pumped $175 billion into the economy and the market.

本月早些時候，中國人民銀行拉動了一個金融杠桿，有效地為經(jīng)濟和市場注入1750億美元。