為什么中國降稅不能解決汽車行業(yè)的大問題

China may try to dress the wounds of global carmakers, but it will be able to provide little more than a Band-Aid.

中國可能試圖為全球汽車制造商包扎傷口，但它能提供的不過是一個創(chuàng)可貼。

The country’s top economic-planning body is considering whether to cut in half the 10 percent tax that customers pay on new cars there, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing unidentified sources. That might help prop up falling demand, but the industry has bigger problems.

彭博周一引述未具名信源報道，該國最高經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)劃機(jī)構(gòu)正在考慮，是否將10%的汽車購置稅減半。這或許有助于支撐不斷下降的市場需求，但該行業(yè)卻存在著一些更大的問題。

Sputtering sales in China are one of the reasons shares in major carmakers have taken a hit this year. The country is now the world’s largest vehicle market, so last month’s almost 12 percent drop in sales compared with September 2017 — the worst decline in seven years — was bound to worry local and foreign manufacturers alike.

中國的汽車銷量低迷，是主要車企今年股價受重創(chuàng)的原因之一。該國如今是世界上最大的汽車市場，因此，上個月的銷量與去年9月相比下跌近12%(7年來的最大跌幅)注定會令本土及外國制造商感到擔(dān)憂。

Cutting the tax may offer a temporary fix. A similar stimulus introduced three years ago boosted annual car-sale rates in China to 25 million units in 2016, from 21 million in 2015, according to the research company Evercore ISI. The same company also estimates that this time round such a measure could boost next year’s growth rate to 5 percent, an increase of 3 percentage points. That helps explain why shares in Daimler, Ford Motor, General Motors and Volkswagen all rose by 5 percent or more after Bloomberg’s report was published.

減稅可能會提供一個臨時性的解決方案。據(jù)研究公司Evercore ISI表示，三年前，政府推出的一個類似刺激性舉措將中國的汽車年銷量從2015年的2100萬臺提振至2016年的2500萬臺。該公司還估計，本輪舉措可能將明年的增長率提至5%，增加3個百分點(diǎn)。這有助于解釋為何在彭博的報道發(fā)表后，戴姆勒(Daimler)、福特汽車(Ford Motor)、通用汽車(General Motors)和大眾(Volkswagen)股價均上漲5%或更多。

But China’s central and regional governments have already pumped generous subsidies into the industry, hoping to create both jobs and economic development. As a result the country now has more than 80 manufacturers and 180 vehicle assemblers, according to the consultancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, many of which have produced little of consequence for years. Up to a third of China’s annual production capacity of 43 million units may have to be idled this year, PWC estimates. That points toward consolidation, but reducing taxes is likely to delay that.

但中國的中央及地方政府已經(jīng)為這個行業(yè)注入了大量補(bǔ)貼，希望此舉既能創(chuàng)造工作崗位，又帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。據(jù)咨詢公司普華永道(PricewaterhouseCoopers)的數(shù)據(jù)，這樣做的結(jié)果就是，該國如今擁有超過80家汽車制造商、180家汽車組裝商，其中許多車企多年來毫無影響力。據(jù)普華永道估計，中國4300萬臺的整體產(chǎn)能中，今年可能有三分之一被閑置。這意味著行業(yè)整合，但減稅很可能會將其推遲。

And anyway, foreign automakers — even those with large businesses in China — have bigger concerns. A slowdown in the United States and Europe will hurt them more than a slump in China. And President Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent levy on European-made vehicles remains a dark cloud: BMW and Daimler would be hit hard, with 71 percent and 62 percent, respectively, of their U.S. sales produced in European factories, according to UBS.

無論如何，外國汽車制造商——即便是那些在中國有大筆業(yè)務(wù)的車企——有著更大的擔(dān)憂。美國及歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩對他們造成的傷害，要比中國市場的銷量下跌大得多。特朗普總統(tǒng)威脅對歐洲產(chǎn)的汽車征收25%關(guān)稅，這仍是他們頭頂上籠罩著的一道烏云：據(jù)瑞銀(UBS)的數(shù)據(jù)，寶馬(BMW)和戴姆勒將遭受重創(chuàng)，兩家公司在美國銷售的汽車當(dāng)中，產(chǎn)于歐洲工廠的分別占71%和62%。

A tax break in China may offer some relief, but it’s no cure.

中國的減稅優(yōu)惠可能會提供一些緩解作用，但不治本。