美聯(lián)儲準(zhǔn)備讓經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行得更熱

美聯(lián)儲準(zhǔn)備讓經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行得更熱

The Federal Reserve knows that "higher prices for essential items such as food, gasoline and shelter add to the burdens faced by many families," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. But he noted that ultra-low inflation or deflation is also a threat.

美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾表示，美聯(lián)儲知道"食品、汽油和住房等必需品價格上漲，加重了許多家庭的負(fù)擔(dān)。"但他指出，超低通脹或通縮也是一個威脅。

The Federal Reserve is adjusting its long-term policy on inflation and employment, and says it will no longer tap the brakes preemptively to prevent the economy from overheating.

美聯(lián)儲正在調(diào)整其有關(guān)通脹和就業(yè)的長期政策，并表示將不再為防止經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱而先發(fā)制人地踩剎車。

For decades after the price hikes of the 1970s, the central bank was on high alert for inflation, raising interest rates whenever unemployment fell "too low," on the theory that would spark runaway prices.

在20世紀(jì)70年代的物價上漲之后的幾十年里，中央銀行一直對通貨膨脹保持高度警惕，只要失業(yè)率“過低”，就會提高利率，其理論依據(jù)是這會引發(fā)物價失控。

But in recent years, the Fed has been more concerned with prices that aren't rising fast enough. Inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed's 2% target, even when unemployment was at half-century lows.

但近年來，美聯(lián)儲更關(guān)心的是價格上漲的速度不夠快。即使失業(yè)率處于半個世紀(jì)以來的最低水平，通貨膨脹仍然頑固地保持在美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)之下。

Under the new policy, which was approved unanimously by the central bank's rate-setting committee, the Fed will not concern itself with an employment picture that is too strong, only a job market that is too weak. And after a long period of inflation that's too low, the Fed will tolerate a period of higher prices, in order to achieve an average inflation rate of 2%.

根據(jù)這項(xiàng)由央行利率制定委員會一致通過的新政策，美聯(lián)儲將不再關(guān)注過于強(qiáng)勢的就業(yè)形勢，而只關(guān)心過于疲軟的就業(yè)市場。在經(jīng)歷了很長一段時間過低的通貨膨脹后，為了達(dá)到2%的平均通脹率，美聯(lián)儲將容忍一段時間的高價格。

In announcing the policy changes, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation remains an unwelcome boogeyman for many.

在宣布政策變化時，美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾承認(rèn)，通脹對許多人來說仍是一個不受歡迎的惡魔。

"We are certainly mindful that higher prices for essential items such as food, gasoline and shelter add to the burdens faced by many families, especially those struggling with lost jobs and incomes," Powell said.

鮑威爾說:“我們當(dāng)然知道，食品、汽油和住房等生活必需品價格上漲，增加了許多家庭的負(fù)擔(dān)，特別是那些失去工作和收入的家庭。”

But in a virtual address to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Powell noted that ultra-low inflation or deflation is also a threat, driving down interest rates and leaving the central bank less room to maneuver in an economic crisis.

但鮑威爾在懷俄明州杰克遜霍爾堪薩斯城聯(lián)邦儲備銀行的年度政策會議上發(fā)表虛擬講話時指出，超低通脹或通縮也是一種威脅，推低了利率，使央行在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中沒有回旋余地。

Years of strong job growth have also shown that the traditional assumption that low unemployment sparks rising prices no longer holds.

多年的強(qiáng)勁就業(yè)增長也表明，低失業(yè)率引發(fā)物價上漲的傳統(tǒng)假設(shè)不再成立。

"The historically strong labor market did not trigger a significant rise in inflation," Powell said.

"歷來強(qiáng)勁的就業(yè)市場并未引發(fā)通脹大幅上升，" 鮑威爾說。

"Many who had been left behind for too long were finding jobs, benefiting their families and communities, and increasing the productive capacity of our economy," Powell said. "It is hard to overstate the benefits of sustaining a strong labor market."

鮑威爾說：“許多被拋在后面太久的人正在尋找工作，使他們的家庭和社區(qū)受益，并提高我們經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)能力。”維持一個強(qiáng)勁的勞動力市場的好處怎么說都不為過。”

Those gains were largely wiped out by the coronavirus pandemic, which has disproportionately affected low-income workers. The unemployment rate, which was 3.5% in February, soared close to 15% in April and remains 10.2% today.

這些成果在很大程度上被冠狀病毒流行病所抵消，這種病毒對低收入工人造成不成比例的影響。2月份的失業(yè)率為3.5%，4月份飆升至近15%，目前仍保持在10.2%。

The Fed expects unemployment to remain above 9% for the rest of this year. But the new policy, which was largely crafted before the pandemic, offers a guide the central bank can use when the economy returns to something approaching full employment.

美聯(lián)儲預(yù)計，在今年余下的時間里，失業(yè)率將保持在9%以上。但這一新政策基本上是在流行病之前制定的，它為央行在經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)到接近充分就業(yè)的水平時提供了可以使用的指導(dǎo)。

"Of course, when employment is below its maximum level, as is clearly the case now, we will actively seek to minimize that shortfall by using our tools to support economic growth and job creation," Powell said.

鮑威爾說:“當(dāng)然，當(dāng)就業(yè)低于最高水平時，就像現(xiàn)在很明顯的情況一樣，我們將利用我們的工具來支持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會，積極尋求將這個缺口最小化。”